ITTLE ROCK, Ark. - Needling his opponent and his opponent's boss, Texas Governor George W. Bush came to Bill Clinton's former stomping grounds and declared yesterday, ''I'm going to win this state.''
Although Clinton carried Arkansas by substantial 20-point margins in both 1992 and 1996, Vice President Al Gore is lagging behind Bush by about 10 points, according to two recent polls.
Ostensibly, Bush's purpose in coming here was to talk about an initiative called ''caring fathers, safe children,'' which would encourage states to create paternity registries. These databanks would allow courts to terminate parental rights more easily and hand over children for adoption if the fathers can be quickly found, Bush said. If fathers do not sign up within 30 days of a child's birth, they will automatically lose their rights, Bush said.
''This is a way to encourage responsibility on behalf of dads on one hand, but on the other hand, if fathers refuse, for whatever reason, to be responsible, expedite adoptions,'' Bush said during a panel discussion at the Centers for Youth and Families.
Bush would not provide new funding for the initiative, and 21 states already have registries in place. Arkansas, for example, instituted one in 1989, when Clinton was governor.
But Bush's visit, his third this year, allowed him to gloat a bit about chances of carrying the state, as well as to raise $600,000 for the Republican Party during two afternoon fund-raisers.
''The reason I'm going to carry the state is because people understand what my philosophy is, it's a shared philosophy of local control, strengthening the military, peace and an economic plan that recognizes and rewards entrepreneurship,'' he said.
Bush allowed that voters here probably still like Clinton, but said Clinton is not running this time around.
''President Clinton carried this state twice, and I suspect he's still a popular figure in the state of Arkansas,'' he said.
''The people are going to make up their mind, not based on President Clinton, they're going to make up their mind based on George W. versus the vice president,'' said Bush, whose state borders Arkansas.
Bush's political analysis was backed up by Arkansas' Republican governor, Mike Huckaby.
''Al Gore doesn't connect with Arkansas voters and George Bush does,'' he said. Huckaby said voters are looking for ''character, honor, and integrity'' in their candidate, and ''there's no way a person who has embraced eight years of a Clinton presidency'' could provide that.
The Democrats, however, have not given up on retaining the Razorback State. And a spokesman for the Democratic Party questioned Bush's prediction.
''George Bush also said he was going to beat John McCain in New Hampshire on the same day he lost to him by nearly 20 points,'' said DNC press secretary Jenny Backus.
But the Texas governor told Republican donors that he planned to return ''as many times as necessary in order to declare victory.''
Bush said he would return to Arkansas as he makes his way from Austin to the Philadelphia convention in about 10 days. The governor and his entourage will travel from Texas to Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia to Pennsylvania, said Karen Hughes, Bush's communications director.
Bush said that he is getting closer to making a decision and that the announcement could come as early as next week.
''I'm getting closer to a decision,'' he said. ''It used to be the list would grow and shrink. Now it's just shrinking.''
And despite his best efforts to avoid answering questions about the selection process, Bush publicly acknowledged for the first time yesterday that one fellow Republican is not on his list.
''Is Governor Huckaby on the short list?'' he was asked. ''No,'' said Bush, who paused and then added that ''he's a good man and a good friend.''
In recent days, Bush has traveled to states with governors who have been frequently mentioned as potential vice presidential candidates. Last week, Bush spent time with Governors Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey, and George E. Pataki of New York. Last night, Bush traveled to Wisconsin, where he met with Governor Tommy Thompson.
