N.H. hopes for presidential hint from Dole

By Mary Leonard, Globe Staff, February 8, 1999

WASHINGTON -- Will she or won't she?

It's the question bringing 1,200 curious folks -- a sellout crowd, the largest ever -- to the annual Chamber of Commerce dinner in Manchester, N.H., tonight, when Republican Elizabeth Dole gives the keynote speech and, maybe, a signal that she is going to run for president.

Her aides are trying to sustain the suspense, saying Dole has selected Manchester for her "first major political speech" since leaving the American Red Cross last month, and she will meet with potential Granite State political and financial supporters before deciding whether to form a presidential exploratory committee.

"A decision will come very soon," a Dole spokeswoman said. "This is the last major hurdle."

It shouldn't take an Olympian effort to clear it. Politicians and polls in this, the first primary state, say Elizabeth Hanford Dole, a two-time Cabinet secretary, the wife of 1996 GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole, and the undeclared female contender in 2000, is already at the head of what is shaping up as a crowded Republican field.

"If the primary were held today, there is no question Elizabeth Dole would win," said Earl Cox, head of a "Draft Dole" committee who has crisscrossed the state several times on her behalf.

Cox, who ran a "Draft Colin Powell" effort in 1996, said he is stunned by the outpouring of support for Dole in New Hampshire. "I've never seen anything like it," said Cox, who expects Dole to declare her candidacy this month.

Dole, 62, certainly the most visible and probably the most highly regarded woman in the Republican Party, said Jan. 4 she was giving "serious consideration" to a presidential run. She has since left the American Red Cross, opened a small office at the Watergate complex, worked the phones, wooed campaign consultants, and tantalized the party with the prospect of seizing the first or second spot on the ticket in 2000.

Fran Wendelboe, a Republican state legislator from New Hampton, says she senses "genuine enthusiasm" for Dole among never easily persuaded New Hampshire voters. Former Senator Warren Rudman, who is backing GOP Senator John McCain of Arizona, concedes Dole is a "formidable, top-tier candidate."

Presidential primary fields, of course, are littered with cast-off candidates who once led the pack and were deemed sure to prevail. Indeed, Dole hasn't banked the first penny of the $20 million she probably will need to compete. She has a paid, full-time staff of only two. And perhaps most significant, she has not laid out a single piece of public policy or articulated a position on any issue.

But first impressions are important in politics, and Dole seems to make a stellar one in her party. According to a poll conducted in December by the American Research Group in Manchester, Dole has 97 percent name recognition among Republican voters in the state and a lofty favorability rating of 71 percent.

"She is in great shape," said Dick Bennett, who directed the poll. "People have no clue where Elizabeth Dole stands on anything, but they think they know a lot about her. And most important, people don't seem to dislike her."

GOP state committeewoman Ruth Griffin of Portsmouth said that while the smart money in the state may eventually be on Texas Governor George W. Bush, another undeclared candidate, "I haven't met anyone who says, 'Oh, God, I just can't stand Elizabeth Dole.' " Griffin said she is also struck by how many of Dole's New Hampshire backers are women.

The female factor could resonate in the upcoming campaign, and not just because family issues where women tend to be strong -- education, health care, and income security -- are in vogue. Linda Liswood of Boston, cofounder of the White House Project, a group pressing for a woman president, said the perception that women are less power-hungry and more ethical and trustworthy than men could serve Dole well in the wake of the long-running White House sex scandal.

"History is often made through a combination of luck and guile," Liswood said. "Things have happened that make this a particularly fertile point in time for a woman presidential candidate."

Sandra Keans, a Republican state legislator from Rochester, said Dole's gender is important to her -- "When 51 percent of the electorate is female, why shouldn't we have a woman president?" -- and she highlighted Dole qualities she likes: "She's very credible, very bright, experienced, articulate, and pragmatic, and she is tremendous, wonderful when she works a room."

"Oh, so what? Liberace could work a room, and that didn't make him qualified to be president," said Danielle Crittenden, editor of the conservative Women's Quarterly, who calls Dole "a country club feminist."

"I am just stunned at how many people love Elizabeth Dole without asking what she has done or what does she think. It's as if Bob Dole had his turn, and now it's a woman's turn, so it should be Mrs. Dole's turn. Well, that's not good enough," she said.

A spokeswoman said Dole will outline "important themes and policy issues" in her remarks tonight. Dole refused to be interviewed for this article, but her office did provide a copy of a letter from Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright congratulating Dole on her "dynamic leadership at the American Red Cross" and her success in improving the relief agency's response to emergencies and natural disasters.

At this stage, it doesn't hurt Dole to be a little vague about her ideology. A Los Angeles Times poll last week showed that both Dole and George W. Bush could defeat Vice President Al Gore today, and Dole showed considerable strength drawing independents (53 percent) and Democrats (20 percent) in the matchup with Gore. Political analysts say they expect Dole could pull moderate Republican women back to the party and appeal to Democrat women, too.

In the New Hampshire Legislature, Representative Keans is a proponent of abortion rights. Representative Wendelboe is an abortion foe. Both are backing Dole, though neither knows exactly, or cares tremendously, where she stands on the issue.

"I think she is prolife, but look, no politician can afford to say it's my way or no way on abortion," Wendelboe said. "It's my view that a woman candidate can straddle the issue more easily than a man."

Keans said the trouble with politics is that people have gotten too distracted by social issues. As long as Dole does not promote policies restricting a woman's access to abortions, she can support her, no matter what her position.

Besides, Keans admits, she is slightly less interested in what Dole says than how she says it.

"I hate to say it, but I just love that syrupy accent of hers," Keans said of Dole, who grew up in North Carolina. "It really sucks me in."