N.H. keeps eye on its prized primary and hopes other states blink

By Jill Zuckman, Globe Staff, January 31, 1999

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Crowded by California, dogged by Delaware, and rushed by the Rocky Mountain states, this first-in-the-nation primary state is waging a war of nerves.

And that's leaving prospective presidential candidates -- such as Arizona Senator John McCain, who was here yesterday; Bill Bradley, who visited last week; and Vice President Al Gore, who will come Wednesday -- in the lurch. None of them knows when New Hampshire will hold its 2000 primary.

Neither, for that matter, do the hotel managers, who will have rooms filled with journalists, politicians, and campaign aides. Nor do the networks, who must book fiber-optic lines, equipment, and hotel rooms. Even party officials here aren't clear.

"I think it's in February of 2000, I'm not sure," ventured Kathy Sullivan, the incoming chairman of the Democratic Party.

Steve Duprey, the GOP chairman, just laughs at the confusion: "I know exactly when the New Hampshire primary is -- whenever the secretary of state says."

And Bill Gardner, the unassuming and long-serving secretary of state, is not saying. That's because New Hampshire is fighting for its survival as a deciding force in presidential politics.

Gardner wants to see when other states set their primary and caucus dates before he sets a date for New Hampshire. The goal: to stay far enough ahead of the pack to ensure the state's primacy, as well as its influence.

Gardner said he won't make an announcement until sometime in the fall. And he is quick to point out that autumn does not officially end until winter begins on the 21st of December. In 1995, Gardner did not announce the date of the 1996 primary until Dec. 20th.

He may have some additional help sheltering the primary from the other states. Representative Jim Splaine, the Portsmouth Democrat, has introduced a bill to allow Gardner to move the primary ahead of any other state by more than seven days if need be. Currently, Gardner has the authority to move it precisely seven days ahead of other primaries.

Splaine said he wants to give New Hampshire some breathing room from the two dozen other states crowding right behind. And he said the beauty of the low-cost, person-to-person New Hampshire tradition will be undermined if candidates have to be ready to immediately compete in so many other states.

"I want to give" Gardner "more flexibility and encourage other states to lay off," Splaine said.

Over the years, New Hampshire has pulled back its primary date to avoid sharing the spotlight with other upstart states. From 1920 to 1972, the primary was always held the second Tuesday in March, the same as the state's town meeting day.

But in 1976, Massachusetts and Vermont tried to create a regional primary by stepping on New Hampshire's turf. Instead, New Hampshire jumped back to the fourth Tuesday in February.

When South Dakota chose the last Tuesday in February for its primary in 1988, New Hampshire retreated again. In 1988, 1992, and 1996, the Granite State chose its presidential favorites on the third Tuesday in February.

Now, New Hampshire and Iowa are in cahoots, ready to pick even earlier dates to fend off the encroachment attempts by Delaware and Michigan. Traditionally, Iowa's caucuses are followed eight days later by New Hampshire's primary.

In Delaware, the Republican chairman said it is "upsetting" and "unfortunate" that Gardner is trying to obstruct his state's right to piggyback on New Hampshire with an unannounced, early primary date.

"I think we need to set a date as quickly as possible so all the candidates and campaigns can know when the primary is," said Basil Battaglia, the Republican Party chair. "There's no sense in penalizing the campaigns."

In Michigan, two state legislators want to change their primary date from March 21 to the second Tuesday in February. And Senator Carl Levin, a Democrat, wants to hold a Michigan presidential caucus on the Saturday before New Hampshire's primary to end "the stranglehold" that Iowa and New Hampshire have on the nominating process.

But the candidates won't necessarily follow.

Representative John Kasich, the Ohio Republican, has vowed not to campaign in Delaware for fear of hurting New Hampshire.

"Iowa and New Hampshire are the keys for anyone not born a millionaire," said Kasich, the son of a postman, during a fund-raising trip to Boston last week. "They don't care who you are -- they want to know what you're all about."

Other candidates, with the exception of former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander and publisher Steve Forbes, have signed pledges promising not to campaign in Delaware. Delaware's law says its primary shall be held four days after New Hampshire's.

"We could move so far ahead that Delaware wouldn't want to follow us," suggested Hugh Gregg, the former Republican governor.

"I know a number of people who say we're not going to vote for anyone who's going to Delaware," he said. "We feel very, very strong about this primary up here."

Besides the candidates, the people who are most affected by the unscheduled schedule are the hotels and the television networks.

At the Center of New Hampshire Holiday Inn, general manager Sean O'Kane is in the midst of a juggling act that affects thousands of other people. The hotel is the central headquarters for the candidates, the campaigns and the journalists covering the primary. Room reservations for the 2000 primary have been booked for the last year and a half. But the exact dates for those reservation have not been set.

"How do we book those other conventions unrelated to the primary if the primary date is a moving target?" asked O'Kane.

For example, 1,000 college students are planning to attend a conference in the third week in January. If the primary is moved back much further, the hotel has the right to bump the students, according to a special contingency clause in their contract. Altogether, O'Kane said, he has six or seven other groups who may lose out due to the shifting primary date.

For the television networks, the situation is slightly less dire.

"We deal with uncertainty in planning big events all the time," said Mark Halperin, ABC News's political director.

The problem, he said, is the cost of covering the contest. "If it stays uncertain right up to the deadline for some of these things," Halperin said, "it could end up costing more."

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