lthough New York state voters will not cast ballots in the Senate race for another six weeks, the election may have been decided two weeks ago, with the first debate between First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton and US Representative Rick Lazio.
Many political analysts thought Lazio's aggressive style toward Clinton helped define him as a viable contender. They further suggested that Clinton's efforts to tie Lazio to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, particularly in their voting records, simply would not work in New York.
Other analysts thought Lazio was too aggressive, even for New York tastes. By walking up to Clinton's lectern and pressing her to sign a pledge not to take ''soft money'' campaign contributions, they said, he went too far.
Polls taken soon after the debate suggest this second judgment was the one held by most viewers. A New York Daily News/WCBS tally showed that of 274 registered voters who watched the debate, 49 percent said Clinton did better, while 36 percent said Lazio did.
Yet Lazio has continued his aggressive style, apparently believing that this is what New Yorkers want. But he's not getting that message from voters. Polls taken late last week clearly showed - again - that Lazio's aggressiveness is not working.
Although a poll by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion found the race to be very tight - a statistical tie at 48-44 percent, given the margin of error - a larger New York Times/CBS News poll released Wednesday gave Clinton a 48 to 39 percent lead over Lazio. A reason for Clinton's surge in this poll is that 56 percent of the women found Lazio too aggressive, as did 53 percent of the men polled.
In addition, more voters in New York, according to the poll, saw Lazio as spending more time attacking Clinton than dealing with issues.
Try as he might, Lazio is not going to make ''soft money'' a priority in this campaign. Parties may indeed be using it in inappropriate ways (such as to help a specific candidate, rather than for the more general party-building and issue-development it was intended for), but New York voters are not up in arms about it.
It is apparent that Lazio has to change his style - and even though he has a chance to do that in the next debate, he may well find that many voters already have made up their minds based on the first debate, which is usually the one most-watched.
The GOP has been counting on Clinton's relatively high unfavorability rating, which has been hovering around 42 percent. But that rating remained fairly consistent before and after the debate, while Lazio's has climbed from 32 to 38 percent since the debate, according to the Marist poll. If that trend continues, this will be Clinton's race to lose.
Of course, anything can happen in the final six weeks of a campaign, especially one as volatile as a New York Senate race. The first lady - who is not as popular as her husband - is often viewed as shrewd enough not to make any big blunders. Not even her staunchest critics believe she would make a fatal mistake in these remaining weeks.
But the national Republican Party, as well as the New York GOP, is not likely to throw in the towel at this stage. The stakes are too high. The outcome will, after all, help determine whether the GOP retains control of the Senate.
The once-unlikely scenario of control of the Senate returning to the Democrats has now become more possible, largely because of the president's popularity and the GOP's negative attacks on him, particularly the impeachment proceedings. A GOP loss of five seats would return the majority to the Democrats.
Republicans therefore see the New York race as important to their efforts to retain control, even though the seat in question has long been held by a Democrat, the retiring Daniel Patrick Moynihan, and even though Vice President Al Gore is expected to take New York in the presidential balloting.
If this race thus far has proved anything, it is that being raised in New York, as was Lazio, does not guarantee a strong advantage over a candidate who has recently moved to New York, as did Hillary Clinton.
If the polls continue to show Clinton ahead right up to election day, it will confirm that what New York voters care most about is which candidate can do more for them in the Senate. That's apparently how voters felt in 1964 when Robert F. Kennedy moved to New York and won his Senate race against Republican Senator Kenneth Keating.
The GOP may need an October surprise to change the political landscape in New York. But the party must be careful not to have any such surprise come across as too negative or too aggressive. Lazio has already proved that it doesn't work.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
