f fund-raising reports are any indication, Democrats are in a good position this year to regain control of Congress - and New Hampshire could play a key role in making it happen.
Democrats need to win six more seats in this year's election to retake the House. Both parties are looking at 11 seats that could be viewed as legitimate contests.
Among those 11 races, eight Democratic challengers have set records during the last half of 1999 in outraising Republican incumbents, giving Democrats the best fund-raising year in history, according to Federal Election Commission reports.
The eight are among 11 Democrats who have already raised $400,000 this year, in sharp contrast to the election cycle of 1998, when only one non-incumbent Democrat raised that amount. The fund-raising records suggest that these races will, at a minimum, be competitive.
Still, Democratic victories will not come easily. With one exception, all the GOP incumbents in question won by double-digit margins in the 1998 election. And most of those incumbents appear to be ahead in the polls. But the Democratic challengers, as well as state and national party leaders, see in their fund-raising totals a hope that they can pull some upsets in November.
One race the Democrats are closely watching is the New Hampshire 2d Congressional District race between GOP incumbent Charles Bass and DemocratBarney Brannen, a trial lawyer and community activist.
New Hampshire Democrats believe Brannen could be their key to taking back the House if one or two close races decide that battle. Democrats, who have held the seat only once since 1912, say Brannen has several advantages in the race.
One is Bass himself. Bass, who unseated Democrat Dick Swett in 1994, is the only GOP incumbent who did not win by double-digit margins in 1998. He won with only 53 percent of the vote, and he won his two previous elections with just 51 percent.
In addition, his favorability rating, according to one poll, is only 47 percent. The conventional wisdom of politics suggests that when an incumbent's favorability with voters drops below 50 percent, that incumbent is vulnerable.
Finally, Brannen is running in a district that has been trending Democratic in recent years, particularly in the southern part of the state, according to various reports.
Bass is viewed as conservative on fiscal issues, but more moderate on other issues; for example, he's been a consistent supporter of abortion rights. Brannen is seen as a Democratic moderate who wants stronger safeguards for social security, improved education, environmental protections, and guaranteed health care for veterans.
Brannen has outraised Bass, $123,000 to $53,000, during the last half of 1999. Although at year's end Bass had a $242,000 balance compared with Brannen's $112,000, Brannen has the fund-raising momentum in his favor. From January through March of this year, he has raised $143,000 to Bass's $88,650.
New Hampshire's other congressional seat appears safely in Republican hands. GOP Congressman John E. Sununu - son of the former governor and White House aide - has only token opposition this year, which allows the state's Democrats to focus most of their attention, and their resources, on the 2d district race.
Other House races being closely watched by both parties include the California contest between GOP incumbent Brian P. Bilbray and Democratic state assemblywoman Susan Davis. Although Davis outraised Bilbray in the last half of last year, Davis ended up with a balance of only $370,000 compared with Bilbray's $828.000. But the fund-raising momentum appears to be with Davis.
Democratic hopefuls also outraised GOP congressional incumbents in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas, Indiana, and Florida.
While these fund-raising records give Democrats hope of taking back the House, the GOP also sees a chance of gaining Democratic-held congressional seats this year.
For example, in contests for seats that will be vacated by Democrats, Republicans outraised Democrats in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, and West Virginia.
However, the Democrats have a fund-raising advantage in three GOP-held seats that will be vacated by retiring Republicans in Montana, Florida, and Washington.
Democrats may have another advantage: the feeling among many voters that the GOP-controlled Congress has been largely unproductive, more concerned about its own personal agenda than the voters' interests.
As Brannen said in a recent interview in the Washington Post, his ability to raise money quickly is attributed largely to ''a lot of disappointment right now about the lack of productivity in Congress on a number of important issues like health care, education, and protecting Social Security.''
With the still-popular Clinton stumping for some of the Democratic challengers, and with the economy still going strong, Democrats see this election as their greatest chance in recent years to recapture the House.
Some Democrats believe the Bass-Brannen race is a bellwether that will signal how far New Hampshire has shifted from its Republican roots. But it may also be the determining factor as to whether the House will shift from Republican to Democratic control in November.
At this stage, political winds from New Hampshire to Florida appear to be shifting favorably toward the Democrats.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
