N.H. voters critically eye political ads

By Charles A. Radin, Globe Staff, 1/18/2000

OW, N.H. - Like a lot of people in New Hampshire, Jill Hadaway sees the political world up close and from many angles, and she comes away with a mix of attitudes difficult for the men who would be president to address.

A self-described ''pro-life conservative'' and registered Independent, she nonetheless thinks the government should be more involved in providing for education and health care.

Al Gore TV ad Some in New Hampshire found Vice President Al Gore's ads overscripted, but not as bad as many of his Republican counterparts.

Clerk of this little (pop. 6,500) town between Concord and Manchester, Hadaway is an avid and critical observer of the political advertising now bombarding anyone in the state who turns on a television or radio.

''The ads really make or break them,'' she says between enrolling new voters and collecting auto excise taxes in the town offices. ''People in New Hampshire won't go by the ads [alone], because just about anybody who wants to can meet the candidates.... but the ads attract attention, they influence.''

Certainly, there has been no escaping the televised assault. Since Nov. 9, the two Democrats and three leading Republican contenders have spent $7.6 million to pelt New Hampshire viewers with 3,989 minutes of paid advertising, according to a Globe survey. This video barrage of biographies, issues talk and occasional attacks would, if spliced onto one continous reel, run for nearly 3 days.

By primary day, the typical New Hampshire voter will have been exposed to about 200 presidential campaign spots, estimates Tobe Berkovitz, a political consultant and media buyer.

But what do voters make of it all? Has this very costly effort to persuade had anything like the candidates' desired effect?

A few days with the citizens suggests that political ads, for all the money and study that go into making them, are a decidedly hit-or-miss affair. Some candidates have scored big, while others seem to have struck out.

Overall, the soccer parents, local activists and professionals of Bow report that they have emerged from the broadcast blizzard with an enduring hunger for a straightforward candidate with humanity and character, with skepticism that big education and health care problems will be solved by the proposals the candidates are pushing, and with revulsion at even a hint of attack or negativity.

They also often have very clear views of what works and what doesn't.

''Going by the ads, [Vice President Al] Gore and [Sen. John] McCain are the most appealing and most substantive,'' says Jack Crisp, a lawyer in Concord who hosted a diverse group of Bow residents at his home here last week to talk, at the Globe's request, about the selling of this year's candidates. ''[Publisher Steve] Forbes's ads are interestingly presented, but I don't agree. [Former senator Bill] Bradley's are nondescript. [George W.] Bush? His are last.''

Of course, reacting to ads is one thing and deciding whom to vote for is another. Most opinion polls put Bradley ahead of Gore in New Hampshire, and Bush running a close second to McCain.

Nevertheless, in the discussion at Crisp's home, and in random encounters around town, Bow residents consistently said they liked McCain's ads best, and they rated the ads of the two Democrats over the rest of the GOP field. Bush's ads were uniformly disliked, and Forbes's generally ignored - except for expressions of resentment that he aired the first attack ad.

''The Bush ads are choppy,'' said Eric Anderson, a founder of the Bow Republican Committee who is leaning toward Bush and is personally acquainted with the Texas governor. ''The [Bush] ads speak differently than the candidate. He is warmer and relates to the voter better than his ads.''

Town clerk Hadaway, who is undecided but leaning toward McCain, said her attention was first drawn to the Arizona senator by a radio ad in which his wife talked about how the McCains adopted a young girl she brought home from Bangladesh.

''To take a sick child not of your race into your home, that is impressive to me,'' she said.

Bush ''comes across very scripted. McCain does a little too, but less so,'' Hadaway said. Gore ''comes across as terribly scripted, but Bill Bradley comes across as genuine. I think that's one of the reasons he's gaining ground here. Forbes's ads are like he is - unclear, boring, with kind of a raw edge.''

Though Bradley comes across as sincere and committed, with perhaps the best commercials of the campaign so far, Hadaway said, she won't vote for him, because ''he's far too liberal for me.''

Across town at Fieldhouse Sports, where the children of Bow and surrounding communities come in winter for indoor soccer, field hockey and lacrosse, Lorraine Fornier, 48, a nurse at Concord Hospital and a registered Republican, sat in the bleachers and laughed merrily when asked which ad she saw last.

''It must have been Gore,'' she said. ''He is on all the time now, because Bradley came on real strong, and Gore is fighting for his life.'' But it's McCain who has caught her attention. ''You have to put your faith in someone. You have to believe,'' Fornier said. McCain ''is doing a real good job of making people believe in him.''

Mark Stewart, 40, manager of the sports complex, is a registered Democrat who describes himself as ''not very political.'' He did not vote in the 1996 presidential election, and is dubious about this year's crop of candidates.

''I see those ads, and what sticks in my mind'' are doubts about the statements the candidates are making, Stewart said. ''Bush saying `we do not give up on any child,' for example. I believe his heart is in the right place, but that is not a feasible statement.''

Stewart also doubts the feasibility of the school tuition voucher schemes some of the candidates embrace, because, he feels, ''we are all tied to paying our taxes and maintaining the public infrastructure.''

As far as the images go that the candidates are presenting in their ads, ''I like McCain's no-holds-barred approach,'' Stewart said. ''I think he shows his true inner self on occasion. I like Bradley's demeanor. He's soft-spoken, looks people in the eye, speaks from the heart. Al Gore? It's tough for him to shake the Clinton shadow... ''

Bow bears little resemblance to the stereotypical New Hampshire town. There is no commercial center, no town green, no domination of local affairs by crusty conservatives.

What Bow does represent - and why it and towns like it matter a great deal to the political professionals who are deployed across the state for various campaigns - is an emerging New Hampshire, one where natives and non-natives get along, where residents care more about fine schools and youth programs than the low tax rate, and where the ranks of political independents are growing at the expense of the major parties.

It is a growing and energized political constituency. Almost 100 percent of the adults in town are registered to vote, and Hadaway predicts up to 80 percent will cast ballots in the primary election on Feb. 1.

This year, for the first time in memory, Republicans are not a majority of registered voters. As of Jan. 4, they numbered 2,364; there were 1,480 Independents and 1,019 Democrats.

''It's a good microcosm of mainstream New Hampshire,'' said Mike Murphy, a top McCain strategist. ''Not too far north, not part of any particular region. This place feels like a lot of New Hampshire feels. It has good Republican traditions, a lot of veterans and Independents.''

While the Bow residents at Crisp's had clear preferences in the ads, there also were areas in which they felt all the ad campaigns were lacking. One was foreign policy, to which none of the major candidates has made substantial reference in ads; Republican Gary Bauer on Friday began airing a pledge to get tough with China.

The greatest shortcoming, according to members of the group, all of whom have school-age children, is in the candidates' thoughts and proposals regarding youth. The subject is featured in every candidate's ads, but, says Peter Wenger, a lawyer, ''they are missing the issue.''

Kurt Lyons, who teaches students with special needs at the White Farm Alternative Learning Program in Concord, agreed.

''Some of the focus has to be on kids outside the schools,'' Lyons said, identifying a subject never mentioned in the ads. ''Kids get into trouble in unstructured time - 3 to 7 p.m. Hello-o! It's not just the schools.''

Researchers for some of the campaigns found in focus groups conducted many months ago that worries about youth were high on the agendas of large segments of the voting public; this may be the leading concern in the campaign. But, according to a source familiar with the research, concerns range across a broad spectrum, from empathy to fear of youth. That range makes the issue a problematic target for advertising.

''The way the world is today, education is vitally important to your kids' futures,'' Crisp said. ''And you also worry, is someone going to wind up bringing a gun into your kids' school?''

The candidates, Wenger said, ''are having trouble telling people that maybe they're lousy parents.''

Members of the group said no ads have been shown yet this year that would make their lists of most memorable political ads.

These, they said, include a George Bush ad attacking Democratic nominee Michael S. Dukakis as being soft on crime, another Bush spot showing a ridiculous-looking Dukakis riding in a tank, and a Ross Perot infomercial in which the Texas extrepreneur, supporting his charges with a diagram of Arkansas's poultry-based economy, asserted that with Clinton in the White House ''we'll all be plucking chickens for a living.''