EW HAVEN - George W. Bush grew out of boyhood at Phillips Academy in Massachusetts. He grew into a man at Yale University in Connecticut. And he learned countless lessons of life at his father's side in Kennebunkport, Maine.
But now that Bush is seeking the presidency, he is learning another lesson: New Hampshire's fling with Senator John McCain may be extending to the five other New England states, with an intense struggle developing over what the Texas governor once hoped would be a safe political home away from home.
In the national political conversation, the March 7 New England vote has received relatively little notice amid the talk about the other primaries on ''Super Tuesday,'' including those in California, Ohio, New York, and Georgia. But to the campaigns, New England is viewed as a vital megastate with a total of 102 delegates, one more than New York and an immense prize by any standard.
As a result, the Republican campaigns, as well as the Democratic ones, are placing significant emphasis on New England. McCain is especially focusing on the region, allotting two to three days this week to campaign here even though some advisers would prefer that he take New England for granted and focus on California. Bush, by contrast, so far has plans to campaign only in Connecticut.
Bush is counting on strong organizations and the fact that most of the region's GOP primaries are closed or open only to independents. Only Vermont allows Democrats to vote in the GOP primary.
''The New England voter is more independent-minded and more moderate, and the religious right is far less strong here, so that really'' gives the advantage to ''a candidate like John McCain,'' said Darrell West, a professor of political science at Brown University. ''I'd be shocked if McCain didn't sweep the region. New Hampshire is the most conservative state, and McCain has already'' won there by 19 points.
On the Democratic side, Vice President Al Gore is well ahead in several polls in New England states, although the Bradley campaign sees reason for hope in the independent-minded region. The Democratic race could have a major impact on the Republican side because independents in several states will be choosing from among all the candidates in both parties. A rush to McCain by independents could hurt Bradley, or vice versa.
Compared with the hugely expensive fight over New Hampshire, the tussle over the rest of New England is the very model of Yankee frugality. Both party's campaigns have devoted little money to the region, preferring to dump millions of dollars into California and New York.
Bush, for example, has not opened offices in Maine, Vermont, or Rhode Island. The McCain effort is almost entirely volunteer, with most ''headquarters'' actually being the home of a supporter.
The Bush campaign has come up with an intriguing strategy that may raise eyebrows elsewhere. In conservative South Carolina, Bush backers said McCain was too moderate. But in the more moderate region of New England, Bush supporters plan to say McCain is too conservative.
''It is puzzling to us that liberal and moderate independent voters are supporting John McCain when he's diametrically opposed to them on many social issues,'' said Rob Gray, top political adviser to Massachusetts Governor Paul Cellucci, a Bush ally.
The Bush campaign seems most hopeful about Connecticut. Bush, unlike McCain, has an office in Connecticut. Two paid and three volunteer staff members work in the headquarters in Greenwich, where Bush's father grew up. McCain's Connecticut office is in a volunteer's home.
''The Bush family is a known commodity in Connecticut. They've always fared well politically here, and all things considered I think George W. will benefit from that legacy,'' said Jay Malcynsky, Bush's state campaign manager.
But in what may be an ominous sign for the Bush campaign, an operator at the Connecticut secretary of state's office had this to say when asked if independents have been calling to change their party affiliation to Republican: ''Oh, my goodness. My goodness. ... They're talking about John McCain.''
McCain's Connecticut director, Benjamin Davol, has no budget and no staff, but the McCain campaign nonetheless has used volunteers and the national momentum of the race to turn a huge deficit in the polls into a 13-point lead. Some Connecticut residents have acquired boxes from a potato chip company named McCain and posted them on their front lawn, offering a show of support for the senator, if not the chips. Others have used materials left over from the New Hampshire campaign.
At the Delta Kappa Epsilon fraternity house at the Yale University, there is an outpost of optimism for New England supporters of the Texas governor. Never mind that there are more signs in the house reading ''Busch,'' the beer, than Bush, the candidate. The members of the fraternity Bush once belonged to are gung-ho about their brother.
''We're all pushing for him,'' said DKE president Charles Buck. ''Bush is a Yale guy, and this would be his home territory.''
But a few blocks away, steelworker Jamie Della Camera sat on a barstool and said he intends to switch his party affiliation so he can vote in the state's Republican-only primary for the Arizona senator.
''I think he's a solid guy,'' he said. As for Bush? ''Forget about it.''
In Massachusetts, more than 20,000 voters have switched their party affiliation, apparently to back McCain, and a new Globe poll shows McCain with a 27 percentage point lead.
Bush backers seemed resigned to bad news.
''There's no question that John McCain is doing very well with independents right now,'' said Gray. ''And independent turnout will have a big effect on the Massachusetts primary.''
In Maine, where the Bush family summers in Kennebunkport, Bush chairman Ross Connelly said he hopes that independents will be deterred from voting in the GOP primary by a provision requiring them to join the Republican Party for a minimum of three months if they want to participate in the GOP vote.
But Maine-based Republican consultant David Sparks, a Bush supporter, said independents pose a strong threat to the Texas governor.
''Maine will be a contest between the sort of perceived affection that the state of Maine has had for the Bush family over the years, and all the establishment lined up behind Bush, versus Maine voters' demonstrated independence over the years,'' Sparks said.
US Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine, a Bush supporter, said she feels ''very positive'' about Bush's chances in Maine, but seemed less than pleased by his recent appearance at Bob Jones University, the South Carolina fundamentalist institution.
''I would have preferred he didn't go to Bob Jones University,'' Snowe said in a telephone interview. Bush's problem, she said, is that he has ''let others define him. You can't do that in a political campaign.'' Snowe, a moderate, said she backed Bush early because she believed he could unify the party and attract voters across the political spectrum. He needs to return to that message, she said.
Rhode Island, a heavily Democratic state, could be heavily influenced by independent voters, who make up 40 percent of the electorate, while Republicans are only 8 percent. Moreover, Rhode Island is the most Catholic state in the nation, and Bush's appearance at Bob Jones University could hurt him there.
Bush aides in Rhode Island said the Bob Jones controversy doesn't worry them, and they note that McCain could be vulnerable on a local issue. Unlike Bush, the Arizona senator has not fully endorsed preserving the Navy's lucrative Seawolf nuclear submarine program, which provides hundreds of jobs in the Providence area.
Aside from Massachusetts, where the McCain campaign has four paid staff members, the McCain campaign has little money to spend. McCain has already spent $2 million on advertising in the Boston market to reach voters during the New Hampshire primary, so there is little room left for more spending.
In Maine, state chairman David Emery, a former US House member, runs the McCain operation from his home with relatively few resources. He has no cash budget and hardly any supplies. Asked if he has any bumper stickers, he said, ''I have two.'' A shipment of 1,000 is on the way, however.
On the Democratic side, Vice President Al Gore is ahead in several states where polls have been taken, including Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, and appears strong in the other New England states. The Bradley campaign, however, sees opportunities across the region, which in theory is an ideal area for him. If Bradley's effort to appeal to the left wing of the party can work anywhere, analysts said, it should work in New England, where independents and liberal Democrats are plentiful.
In Rhode Island, Gore leads Bradley 39 percent to 25 percent in a Brown University survey completed last week. But the poll also showed that 36 percent remained undecided. ''Gore has an advantage, but he hasn't sealed the deal,'' Brown's West said.
Several Bradley supporters bemoaned the rise of McCain because the Arizona senator appears to be getting the giant's share of independent voters. Some in the Bradley campaign hope independents who support McCain will become aware of the Arizona senator's conservative positions and back Bradley.
Since McCain ''has realized he needs to appeal to Republicans, he is running around saying `I'm a Reagan Republican, a Goldwater Republican, I'm opposed to abortion,' and I think that's a real surprise to a lot of Massachusetts voters,'' said former Massachusetts attorney general James Shannon, chairman of Bradley's campaign in the Bay State.
While Bradley trails throughout New England, his aides do see signs of hope in Connecticut and Rhode Island. A recent Quinnipiac College poll shows Bradley trailing by just 8 points in Connecticut, where aides said the former senator is well-organized and drew large and enthusiastic crowds during a visit earlier this month.
In Maine, meanwhile, Bradley aides were trumpeting a recent endorsement by 10 of the state's 18 Democratic state senators, and held out hope that Bradley could score a win in the state's nonbinding caucus two days before the primary.
The Gore campaign, while confident throughout New England, knows the deal must be sealed, and soon.
''I think people are waiting to see what is going to happen over the next 10 days,'' said Alex Zaroulis, a spokeswoman for Gore's New England campaign. Tuesday's Washington state primary and Wednesday's California debate are likely to have a major impact on how the race unfolds in New England.
