New rulings key to races for governor in N.H., Vt.

By Bryan K. Marquard, Globe Staff, 10/15/2000

hey were northern New England's Democratic success stories: centrists who infuriated opponents and confounded their own party members by cruising down the middle road to victory on Election Day.

In previous Novembers, they won reelection by wide margins and began attracting national attention. But suddenly the governors of Vermont and New Hampshire are battling for survival, thrown on the defensive by Supreme Court decisions that have ripped apart their otherwise satisfied electorates.

Howard Dean of Vermont and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire now find themselves locked in tight races with Republican opponents who are capitalizing on public opposition to court rulings. In Vermont, the issue is same-sex unions; in New Hampshire, it's school funding.

As a result, both Dean and Shaheen are waging battles on two fronts - to defeat conservative GOP challengers, and to shore up support among liberal Democrats and moderate Republicans whose backing they need to win.

Dean has seen his support erode among the majority of Vermonters who opposed his decision to sign the law granting same-sex couples most legal benefits of marriage. Shaheen incited protests by supporting, as a temporary solution, a statewide property tax that raised rates in many communities.

The change in Dean's political fortunes was evident last weekend as he marched behind the color guard and three students holding a banner for a fall foliage parade in Bethel.

A Vermont town of about 1,900 in Windsor County, Bethel has elected some of the state Senate's most liberal Democrats. Just a few miles up the road in more conservative Orange County, primary voters refused to nominate an incumbent Republican who voted for the civil unions legislation.

Dean, who as recently as four years ago was reelected with 71 percent of the vote, said he was ''pleasantly surprised'' at his reception in Bethel: About half the people who lined the parade route applauded as he walked by; the rest greeted the governor with silence.

That breakdown seemed consistent with a poll last week that showed Dean leading Ruth Dwyer, his Republican opponent who opposes civil unions, by 48 percent to 33 percent.

It's impossible to say whether those who refrained from acknowledging the governor's cheerful greetings and waves were opponents of the civil unions bill or merely taciturn Vermonters, but several times, men could be heard quietly making anti-Dean comments.

In an exaggerated show of deference, one man even cupped his hand over his mouth before saying in a stage whisper, ''Boo Howard Dean, boo Howard Dean.''

Still, this might be viewed as an improvement. Dean said he has been heckled at some public appearances by residents who called out vulgarities or homophobic epithets by way of criticizing him for signing the civil unions bill.

This race, he said, is the nastiest of his eight runs for statewide office. (Dean was elected three times as lieutenant governor before he won four races for governor.) The unpleasantries this year have included ''videotapes claiming I'm in favor of child molesting,'' the governor said. ''It's discouraging to see that in Vermont.''

The political discourse may be a little less coarse across the Connecticut River in New Hampshire, but the race is no less competitive for Shaheen, who was first elected in 1996, who was easily reelected two years ago, and whose name was reportedly once on Al Gore's list of running-mate contenders.

Shaheen faces a tougher challenge this time, caught in crossfire between Democrats and Republicans over how to fund education.

The issue has lingered for nearly three years since the New Hampshire Supreme Court declared unconstitutional the traditional practice of funding education with local property taxes that varied widely from community to community. But this is her first race since the Legislature adopted, as a temporary solution, a statewide property tax, which was angrily opposed in many communities where taxes dramatically increased. She also has alienated some voters with her support of video gambling as a way to help fund education.

''I think she's going to win,'' said Mark Fernald, a state senator from Sharon whom Shaheen defeated, 60 percent to 38 percent, in the Democratic primary last month. ''I don't think she's going to win by a lot,'' he said, ''certainly not like the last few times.''

For liberal Democrats and some moderate Republicans who support enacting a state income tax to resolve the education funding dilemma, the primary offered a chance to voice their discontent with Shaheen.

Unlike her previous two runs, Shaheen has refused this time to take the traditional Granite State pledge to oppose a broad-based tax; no governor since 1972 has won without taking the pledge.

''I think there's still a lot of people out there who are frustrated and discouraged, but I think that they're by and large going to come back to the governor,'' said Senator Clifton Below of Lebanon, a Democrat and a key income-tax supporter who backed Fernald's primary bid.

Just how quickly they return to the fold could determine how long Election Day will be for Shaheen, who is being challenged by Gordon Humphrey. While he is ideologically similar to the governor's previous two Republican opponents, and supports amending the constitution to overturn the court's education ruling, Humphrey brings strong funding and an even more dangerous weapon to the race: name recognition from two terms as a US senator. Shaheen said she expects to be outspent.

Dean, whose profile grew when he served as chairman of the National Governors' Association, said he probably will spend more on this campaign than in previous ones. ''I mean, they're throwing everything at me but the kitchen sink,'' he said. ''Of course, having a third opponent on the left doesn't help anything.''

Vermont's three-way race differentiates it significantly from the New Hampshire campaign. Anthony Polina, a Progressive, is siphoning some of Dean's support from independents and liberal Democrats, and his presence may throw the race to the Legislature if no candidate garners 50 percent of the vote.

How that will affect the outcome remains to be seen. As recently as 1998, the Legislature picked the top vote-getter in the lieutenant governor race, but some legislative candidates have been quoted as saying they'll vote their conscience on civil unions if it comes to choosing a governor. That means that even if Dean wins the popular vote, he might lose his job if enough civil union opponents join the new Legislature.

To many Democrats in both states, the governors' tenure in office is of as much consequence as the baggage handed to them by their respective supreme courts.

''Historically, third terms have been harder for governors in New Hampshire,'' Shaheen said, adding that in her case, the changes in how education is funded have affected the state's tax structure, which inevitably angers some voters.

For Dean, the fatigue factor is more pronounced: He has been on the ballot every two years since 1986, when he was first elected lieutenant governor.

Given the combination of voter weariness and voter backlash, neither Dean nor Shaheen was willing to speculate on who faced a tougher race.

Peter Burling of Cornish, the New Hampshire House minority leader whose district also borders Vermont, recast the question as a matter of where concern is best placed.

''The reason I feel for Howard Dean and for many of my friends in the Legislature over there,'' Burling said of the civil unions backlash, ''is that what they're confronting is really the politics of hate.''