he news out of state polls in New England is that both party front-runners -- Al Gore for the Democrats and George W. Bush for the Republicans -- are in trouble. The insurgent candidacies of Arizona Senator John McCain and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley are gaining traction throughout the region.
So the Gore and Bush spin masters are in high gear. This is the spin: New Hampshire doesn't really matter. It has a quirky tradition of knocking off front-runners. So no matter what happens in that inconsequential piece of northern New England, with its measly four electoral votes, the national polls indicate that the Gore and Bush campaign are in fine shape.
This is the so-called ''invisible primary'' motif. First identified in 1973 by Arthur Hadley, the ''invisible primary'' consists of the media-funded national polls that presumably identify and select the likely nominees of the major parties. It is an interesting concept, but it overlooks a key fact - there is no national event until the nominating convention.
The pre-nomination phase is not a national event. It is a three-plus month collection of state events. It is a long and tedious weekly slog through one state's primary after another. The national polls may have some impact upon the Democrats with their hefty chunk of superdelegates, but they constitute less than one-fifth of delegates. No, it is the state polls which have the most validity, for it is in the state primaries and caucuses that the nomination is won or lost. This is a case where ignoring the trees may cause a candidate to lose the forest.
Since the latest polls have indicated a narrowing of the contest between the front-runners and their rivals, it now appears that the ''front-loading'' strategy of the party professionals may have backfired.
In order to avoid the losing fratricidal nomination battles of the past - 1964 and 1976 for the Republicans and 1968 and 1972 for the Democrats, party professionals encouraged the process of ''front-loading'' - with as many delegates chosen as early as possible. This maximized the time to repair intraparty rifts and to raise money.
Democrats had selected over half of their delegates by the 11th week in 1976; by the eighth week in 1992; and by 1996, more than half were chosen by the fifth week. For the Republicans, shaving the calendar has been even faster. In 1976, more than half of Republican delegates were chosen by the 11th week; by 1988, half were chosen by the fifth week; and by 1996, the fourth week. Since 1968, almost two months have been knocked out of the selection process by front-loading. Democratic nominees Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Walter Mondale in 1984 benefited from this front-loading strategy as did Republican Bob Dole in 1996. None of whom won the general election.
In 2000, the front-loaded Democratic primaries were to have made a winner of Al Gore. But of the six Democratic primaries to be held in February 2000, Gore has only run in one of them - New Hampshire in 1988 - and he placed fifth with 6.8 percent of the vote.
On March 7, 2000, 11 states, including New England's five-state Yankee Primary and much-prized California and New York will hold their primaries. Ten of these states held 1988 primaries - with Gore winning none. His best finish was running second in Georgia. In both delegate-rich California and New York, Gore finished in third place. More disheartening was Gore's performance in the four New England states which held 1988 primaries.
He was unable to crack double-digits. In Connecticut, he finished third with 7.7 percent; in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, he ranked fourth, scoring 4.4 percent and 4 percent respectively; he never even made the screen in Vermont. How far does the Gore camp want the bar to be lowered?
All of these primaries will be held one week before Super Tuesday's Southern primaries were to close the door on any challenger. There will be little positive momentum for the Gore campaign as it heads south.
Beneath the simple horse race assessment, a closer look at a poll conducted by the McCormack Institute at UMass-Boston contained ominous warnings for Gore. The poll's eight-point margin for Bradley over Gore, 43 to 35, is clearly outside the margin of error. More important, Massachusetts, unlike New Hampshire, is a Democratic state, having voted Democratic in eight of 10 elections since 1960. Further, Massachusetts had a 1996 exit poll party identification of 2-to-1 for Democrats (36 percent) to Republicans (18 percent).
Massachusetts is a Democratic barometer and Gore's spin masters should be wary of low-balling the impact of Massachusetts numbers on his candidacy.
On the Republican side, New Hampshire has cast its electoral votes for Republicans in nine of 12 presidential contest since 1952. It is a Republican barometer. Of the 12 victors in New Hampshire's Republican primaries, 10 were nominated, nine carried the state, and seven carried the nation. Governor Bush needs a New Hampshire victory more than his spinners would like people to believe. And unlike his father, who had the irrepressible John Sununu mobilizing the New Hampshire GOP for him, this year's contest indicates a fragmented Republican leadership in the Granite State.
Gore can lose in New Hampshire with less negative impact than Bush. Of the 12 victors of New Hampshire's Democratic primaries, only six were nominated and only four were elected president.
But lowering the bar in Massachusetts will be dangerous. The UMass Poll reported an 11-point shift in Democratic primary voters in three months, giving Bradley his eight-point edge. He did this by attracting voters away from Gore's base, most notably women and college graduates, two essential Democratic constituencies. Compounding Gore's problems is his pronounced weakness among Independent voters, particularly against John McCain. Although McCain's visibility is much lower than Gore's, he still defeats Gore by 5 percent while Bradley crushes McCain by 25 points on the strength of the Independent vote. At 46 percent in the 1996 exit polls, Massachusetts has the largest block of Independent identifiers in the nation. Bradley's strong finish over McCain demonstrates his ability to attract Independent voters against the Republicans' most appealing candidate to that constituency.
Al Gore's general election prospects are not much better. In the UMass poll's general election match-up, Bradley has a 14-point lead over Bush and does 21 points better against Bush than Gore. This is the largest Democratic margin over Bush by any candidate anywhere in the country.
Bradley has increased his margin over Bush by attracting Independents, women, and college graduates while McCain poses little threat to attract Independents from him. That this dynamic exists only in the Northeast, and most dramatically in Massachusetts, may not trouble Bush. He won't trip over the lowered Massachusetts bar.
In earlier times, these state polls might be dismissed by candidates as simply too early to mean anything. But given this year's calendar, Gore's hope for an early knockout is gone. The worst nightmare of the Clinton White House may come true - a protracted and bitter primary battle with a divided convention fought to the last round. And there is an even worse scenario: Bill Bradley could win the nomination battle. The bar cannot be lowered any further than that.
Garrison Nelson is a senior fellow at the McCormack Institute at University of Massachusetts in Boston. Louis C. DiNatale is the director of the Institute's Center for State and Local Policy.
