Now, the Veepstakes

The guessing game begins on occupants of tickets' No. 2 spots

By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, 3/12/2000

ASHINGTON - To engage in Washington's favorite political parlor game, consider this question: Whom might George W. Bush pick as a running mate who was a hero in the Vietnam War, is beloved by advocates of campaign finance overhaul, and can attract independents likely to determine the election?

POSSIBLE REPUBLICANS
* Tom Ridge
Governor of Pennsylvania
PROS: From key state, pro-abortion rights, Vietnam vet
CONS: Little known, pro-abortion rights
* Chuck Hagel
US senator from Nebraska
PROS: McCain clone, Vietnam vet, reformer
CONS: Who?
* Elizabeth Dole
Former president of Red Cross
PROS: Experience, attracts women and youth
CONS: Presidential campaign flopped

POSSIBLE DEMOCRATS
* Robert Rubin
Former secretary of Treasury
PROS: Mr. Economic Prosperity
CONS: Has never run for office
* Dianne Feinstein
US senator from California
PROS: From key state, attracts women
CONS: Potential conflict with reelection campaign
* Evan Bayh
US senator from Indiana
PROS: Former governor, rising star
CONS: He's too green; Indiana's too Republican


   

Hint: The object of the game is to pick someone just like Senator John McCain - without the McCain baggage.

One answer has tongues wagging in Washington. He is Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska. (At this point, it is acceptable outside of Washington and Nebraska to say, ''Who?'')

In Vietnam, Hagel, his own body on fire, saved his brother from a burning armored personnel carrier. In Washington, Hagel was nearly as outspoken as McCain in backing changes in the way politicians raise their campaign finances.

Another intriguing inquiry is underway at the campaign of Vice President Al Gore, where the process might be called, ''It's the Economy, Stupid, Part II.'' Who can help Gore assure Americans that prosperity will continue? Some Gore partisans think the answer is the former secretary of the Treasury, Robert J. Rubin, who has admirers on both political sides, and executive credentials from many regions, but who has no experience running for elective office.

This is not to say that Hagel or Rubin has a real shot at the job, or that either man wants it. Many observers said the leading candidate on the Republican side is Governor Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, another Vietnam veteran, who has the bonus of a 20-year association with the Bush family.

Other frequently mentioned Republicans include:

Elizabeth Dole, the former Red Cross president and former presidential candidate, for her experience and her appeal to women.

Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee, partly because of his outsider appeal and role in campaign finance investigations.

Former secretary of defense Dick Cheney, whose resume might help compensate for Bush's lack of foreign policy experience.

Plenty of other Democrats are in the mix, including Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Governor Gray Davis of California, Senator Bob Graham of Florida and Senator Dianne Feinstein of California.

But interviews with Bush and Gore advisers, as well as others, have found a clear trend in this early stage of the ''veepstakes.'' The informal search is focused much less than usual on geography and ticket balancing, and more on wooing independents and voters focused on economic issues. The big question is whether the post-primary impulse to attract McCain voters will fade as the process plays out.

Presidential primary results for Massachusetts. D12.

Bush's search for a vice presidential nominee might be summed up in two words: ''No surprises.'' Otherwise interpreted: The Bush campaign may not want to repeat the selection process of 1988, in which George Bush, the father, picked Senator Dan Quayle, who was little known outside Indiana and who made a poor first impression on many voters.

One favorite among Republican kibitzers is retired General Colin L. Powell Jr. But a confidant who talked last week with the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs said Powell has ruled out the vice presidency, although not necessarily a job such as secretary of state.

McCain himself has said he would not accept the vice presidential slot, as has former senator Bill Bradley. Of course, potential vice presidents often say they don't want the job. But the statements by McCain and Bradley seem firm, leaving the field of possible prospects much wider than usual.

''John McCain always flew single-seat fighter planes,'' said Ken Duberstein, a McCain adviser and Reagan White House chief of staff. ''There is a reason why he never flew two-seat fighter planes. He could never be the person in the back seat. That holds for fighter planes and vice presidencies.''

But Duberstein, who already is acting as an intermediary for the Bush and McCain camps, said that Hagel or Ridge would be a logical choice.

''I think Chuck Hagel would be superb,'' Duberstein said. ''So would Tom Ridge, who not only is the governor of a key industrial state, but is a Vietnam vet, is prochoice, has Washington experience but is a governor, and oh, by the way, he is Catholic.''

During the primaries, Bush was assailed by McCain for speaking at Bob Jones University, whose leaders have referred to Catholicism as a ''cult.'' While Bush was not hurt among Catholics as much as McCain expected during the primaries, some observers believe Bush would be helped with a Catholic on the ticket. Ridge also has proven crossover appeal, attracting many Democrats.

Ridge's stance in favor of abortion rights is either a problem or an opportunity, depending on who is analyzing the matter.

Some Bush supporters believe the best way to attract independent voters is to pick a running mate who is moderate and backs abortion rights. That would send a signal that Bush is reaching far beyond the usual party lines and that he is not taking instructions from religious conservatives who have urged him to rule out such a candidate. Notably, Bush declined during the campaign to rule out a running mate who favors abortion rights, which some analysts interpreted as a clue that he might pick Ridge or Governor Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey. But such a choice undoubtedly would roil many in the party and might play into the hands of a possible Reform Party candidate, Patrick J. Buchanan, who opposes abortion rights.

Ridge, who received a Bronze Star in Vietnam, has ties to the Bush family dating to 1979, when he was a volunteer in the presidential campaign of Bush's father. As a governor, he has frequently worked with Bush.

Hagel, by contrast, has only a casual acquaintance with Bush and campaigned against him as one of McCain's top supporters. But Hagel's compelling biography - a Vietnam hero who overcame a hardscrabble Nebraska upbringing and became a leading reformer - has begun to attract considerable attention.

Hagel is also opposed to abortion rights. And the campaign finance plan he advocates limits but would not ban soft money. On both counts his positions broadly harmonize with Bush.

Representative Mark Sanford, a South Carolina Republican who hopes McCain will change his mind and accept a vice presidential nomination, said that Hagel is the ideal alternative. ''Hagel has that same straight-shooter quality that McCain has, '' Sanford said.

On the Democratic side, the initial impulse in the Gore camp has been to look for a governor who presumably would have outsider appeal. The most obvious candidate is Davis, the California governor. But Davis said last week that he wouldn't accept the nomination.

There has also been an informal search among former governors who are now US senators, including Graham of Florida and Bayh of Indiana. Graham is being considered partly in hopes that he could counter the influence of Florida Governor Jeb Bush - George W. Bush's brother - and bring the Sunshine State into the Democratic column. Bayh is attractive as a rising star in the party, but he is not likely to bring even Indiana, a mostly Republican state.

Another much-discussed Democratic prospect is Feinstein, who presumably would help Gore among Californians and women. But Feinstein is up for reelection in 2000. While California allows candidates to run for both the Senate and a national office, such a bid would make the race highly complicated. Some Democrats also believe that Gore has to assume he will win California and concentrate on a handful of ''battleground'' states, which has led to some speculation about Senator Richard Durbin of Illinois.

Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, like many senators, has been mentioned, but Gore advisers note that the state is not pivotal. Former senator George Mitchell of Maine, an architect of the Irish Good Friday agreement, was given a boost by Wall Street Journal columnist Al Hunt last week, but he said Thursday that such thinking is probably not realistic.

The lack of an obvious Democratic candidate has led to the buzz about the unconventional choice of Rubin, who has gotten much of the credit for the prosperity of the past eight years. Among Rubin's boosters have been some Gore aides and White House adviser James Carville, whose 1992 mantra for the Clinton-Gore campaign was, ''It's the economy, stupid.'' The selection of Rubin would remind voters that the economy has prospered and that the prosperity could continue with a Gore-Rubin ticket, Carville said recently.

But Rubin, now on the board at Citigroup, has never run for office, and his Wall Street background might prove controversial.

All of these names could represent spring flashes that disappear by summer. There is a political purpose behind the early floating of names. Every time a candidate is seriously mentioned, the campaign gets feedback on the choice, and sometimes learns disqualifying information.

Michael S. Dukakis, the 1988 Democratic nominee, said one of his best decisions was to pick Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas as his running mate, while one of Bush's worst decisions was to pick Quayle. In the end, Dukakis lost the election, and Texas.

Still, Dukakis said, the pick could be the difference.

''It's your first and most important presidential decision - if you get to be president,'' Dukakis said.