EARBORN, Mich. - Fresh from wins in Michigan and Arizona, John McCain still faces a daunting road in his quest for the Republican nomination, but it is paved with possibilities across the country, from New England to Ohio to Washington.
To be sure, there are many difficulties. Some key upcoming contests, including New York and California, do not allow independents and Democrats to participate in Republican primaries for delegate selection. Two other key states, Texas and Florida, have governors named Bush. And McCain's popularity has been dropping among the GOP, while Texas Governor George W. Bush is still favored by most Republicans.
But a number of McCain's difficulties are overstated. Some of the closed primaries, such as the ones in Connecticut and Maine, occur where McCain is highly popular. A just-released New York poll shows the GOP race there has become a dead heat. California, the biggest primary with the largest slate of delegates, has a history of electing moderate Republicans, and Bush's father, former President Bush, was not especially popular there.
Moreover, Bush's three biggest perceived advantages - money, endorsements, and inevitability - have faded in importance. Thanks to Bush's extraordinary spending pace and McCain's surging contributions, the Arizona senator is financially competitive. Some Bush endorsements, such as the one by Michigan Governor John Engler, have been ineffective or may have backfired. And the last pillar, inevitability, clearly is teetering.
''I still think it is Bush for the nomination, but momentum is a huge factor and it is not much of a stretch to see how McCain could get it,'' said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. For that to happen, Rothenberg said, Republicans would need to perceive McCain as having the best chance of winning the general election and to become more comfortable with the idea that he really is a conservative.
During his victory speech Tuesday night, McCain said Republicans should not fear him, but join him. The implicit message was they should abandon Bush if they want to recapture the White House.
''As I look more electable, we'll start drawing more Republicans,'' McCain said yesterday.
Bush, after all, soared in popularity last year partly on the wings of three words: He can win. At the time, polls showed Bush clobbering Vice President Al Gore or Bill Bradley in hypothetical matchups. McCain and the other GOP candidates didn't run nearly as strong.
Now, the situation is reversed. According to the latest Gallup poll, Bush would beat Gore 50 percent to 45 percent, still within the survey's 3-point margin of error.
McCain, by contrast, would beat Gore 59 percent to 35 percent, the poll found.
Bush told supporters after his Michigan defeat that he would start winning because Republicans would dominate upcoming contests. But that is not entirely the case. During the next two weeks, 553 delegates will be selected in closed primaries, while 601 will be chosen in primaries that allow independents or Democrats to vote, according to the Hotline political newsletter.
Polls still show Bush well ahead nationally, but most surveys were taken before McCain's victory in Michigan. And McCain has shown that a strong showing in one state can reduce his gap with Bush by 20 points overnight.
More revealing are national polls that have begun to expose Bush's weaknesses. For example, the Gallup poll, conducted Sunday and Monday, showed that only 39 percent of Republicans agreed with the statement that Bush is ''not a typical politician.'' By contrast, 53 percent of Republicans viewed McCain that way. The same poll showed that Bush has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 58 percent to 35 percent, while McCain's rating is 65 percent to 17 percent.
McCain's strength has also been his weakness. He has succeeded by winning support among independents and Democrats. But in the process, McCain has angered many Republicans who will vote in the upcoming primaries. As Bush's win in South Carolina demonstrated, McCain is not popular among those allied with the Christian right.
While McCain has one of the most conservative records of any senator, with a few notable exceptions on campaign finance and tobacco regulation, the political perception among many voters is that he is more moderate. His chief message - that he is a reformer - puts him in an antiestablishment camp that appeals to many independents.
The upcoming primary schedule is a combination of good news and bad news for McCain. On Tuesday, he is hoping for at least a split, with a win in Washington, which has a political makeup that resembles New Hampshire, and a tougher battle in Virginia, which is similar in many ways to South Carolina. Both Virginia and Washington have open primaries.
The big day is March 7, with 16 primaries and caucuses. McCain hopes to complement his New Hampshire victory with a sweep of the five other New England states. For example, though Connecticut has a closed Republican primary, a recent state poll shows McCain ahead 13 points among Republicans.
McCain said yesterday that he was on ''very, very good footing, particularly among the Northeastern states.''
McCain also hopes, with some justification, that he can win in the moderate states of Maryland and Minnesota.
That leaves a contest in a number of major states: New York, California, Ohio, Georgia, and Missouri.
On the surface, this looks good for McCain. The March 7 schedule is focused disproportionately on California and the Northeast - traditionally solid ground for moderate Republicans. New York is a Republican-only primary where Bush is much better organized, but a Marist Institute poll released yesterday found that the race has become a statistical tie.
California, with 162 delegates, has a complicated and vital contest. It has a ''beauty contest'' GOP vote in which any registered voter can participate, but only the votes of Republicans count toward the winner-takes-all selection of delegates. In other words, McCain could win the beauty contest without getting a single delegate.
Several other key states have open primaries March 7, which means McCain could draw votes from independents and Democrats. But with Democratic contests also that day, independents could choose Al Gore or Bill Bradley, taking away possible support for McCain.
If McCain doesn't do well March 7, it probably would be impossible for him to catch up. One week later, the battleground is largely on Bush territory - Texas and Florida, where brother Jeb Bush is governor. The two states provide 204 delegates, a sizable chunk of the 1,034 needed to win.
Bush also has an edge in the other Southern states voting March 14 - Oklahoma, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
Material from the Associated Press was used in this report.
