Outcome may take weeks to determine

By Susan Milligan, Globe Staff, 11/10/2000

ASHINGTON - Americans may not know who their next president will be for weeks or months, as contentious issues wind their way through government agencies and the courts.

With so many elements in play - whether the vote was accurately counted, whether people cast votes for their intended candidates, and whether all eligible voters were allowed to vote - the final decision could drag on until December or later, election law specialists say.

In the meantime, the electorate and the candidates face a plethora of possible scenarios, driven by the following questions:

Why was there a recount? Florida law calls for an automatic recount when the margin of victory is less than one-half of one percent. The gap between Gore and Bush was substantially smaller than that - 1,784 votes out of some 5.9 million cast.

How long could it take before we know who has won Florida?

Probably not until Nov. 17 at least, when the estimated 2,900 absentee ballots from Floridians abroad are received and counted. The Florida Democratic Party also wants a more time-consuming hand count of the ballots, which could take even more time. The overseas voters are mostly military personnel and expatriates.

How was the recount conducted?

Election officials in each county decided how to proceed. Some are actually counting ballots, while others are matching vote totals against the number of registered voters.

When the recount is done, the candidate with a majority of the ballots cast in Florida will become the president-elect?

Don't count on it. There are already two challenges to the results in Palm Beach County, filed in state court. Florida Democratic Party chairman Bob Poe says his party is not ruling out its own lawsuit, should Bush end up with the greatest number of votes.

What is the legal basis for challenging the recount?

There are reports that the punch-card ballots in Palm Beach County wereconfusing, especially to some of the many elderly voters there. Some voters said the butterfly-style listing of the candidates, with Bush and Gore on the left, Reform Party candidate Patrick J. Buchanan on the right, and the punch holes in the middle, led them to vote mistakenly for Buchanan instead of Gore. Also drawing scrutiny are more than 19,000 ballots discarded because they reflected two votes for president.

Could a judge hold up the naming of a new president?

Conceivably, yes, though election lawyers note that there is no precedent for it in a national election. The Florida secretary of state certifies the election results, and the information is communicated to the Florida delegates to the Electoral College. A judge theoretically could enjoin the secretary of state from certifying the results, based on evidence of vote fraud, for example.

Are the complaints of people who said they didn't understand the ballot enough to keep a president from being inaugurated?

Again, there's no precedent. But it would be a tough sell, specialists say. ''Confusion is not enough of a reason to overturn votes,'' said Philip Klinkner, who lectures on politics and elections at Hamilton College.

What if the recount gives Bush the lead?

The Gore campaign would have 10 days to ask a state judge to review the election. The judge has the power to adjust the number of discarded ballots, call for a new election, or take other measures to guarantee an honest vote. One of the private lawsuits might also lead a judge to order a new election.

Who would get to vote again - any eligible voter, or just the ones who voted the first time?

It's not clear; the judge would decide. Most likely, said Colleen McAndrew, an election law specialist in Los Angeles, only first-time voters would be allowed to cast votes again. Because of ballot secrecy, it would be impossible to narrow the list to the voters who said they had voted inadvertently for the wrong man.

Who has the authority - the state courts, or the federal courts? And can the federal government intervene?

The Constitution is clear in giving states the authority over their own elections. The federal courts come into play only when a federal question is raised. The federal government could get involved if, for example, it has evidence that civil rights had been violated. Attorney General Janet Reno said she would not ''jump in'' until she had thoroughly reviewed the facts.

Don't court cases drag on forever?

Oftentimes they do, but scholars expect that if a legal challenge did threaten the inauguration of a new president, the appeals process would be accelerated, perhaps sent directly to the US Supreme Court.

If Gore supporters challenge in Florida, what's to prevent the Bush loyalists from challenging in other states where the election was close?

Nothing. There have been rumblings of a court challenge in Iowa, where Gore won by 3,115 votes. There is also a possible challenge of the results in Wisconsin, where Gore won by 6,124 votes, and in New Mexico, where Gore won by 9,575 votes. The Oregon results are still undecided. ''When you get lawyers involved, reason departs,'' said former representative Bill Frenzel, now an analyst at the Brookings Institution.

If Florida isn't ready to send electors by the time the Electoral College votes on Dec. 18, what happens?

The vote would likely be delayed. ''I don't see it playing out that Gore wins just because Florida is a no-show,'' said Brad Hertz, a lawyer with the Los Angeles firm of Reed & Davidson, which handles election disputes.

Can electors change their votes?

They can and they have, although no such switch has changed who became president.

What happens after the Electoral College votes?

The House certifies the vote for president, and the Senate certifies the vote for vice president.

That's just a technicality, right?

It may not be, because members of each party may be inclined to refuse to certify the opposing party's candidates, believing the Florida vote was not legitimate.

Both houses of Congress are controlled by Republicans. Does that give Bush and his vice presidential nominee, Dick Cheney, an advantage?

The new Congress will take over Jan. 3. The new House will be Republican-controlled, but the balance of power in the Senate is unclear because of an undetermined US Senate race in Washington state between Democrat Maria Cantwell and the Republican incumbent Slade Gorton. If Cantwell wins, the Senate would be divided 50-50.