ES MOINES - With one notable exception, the entire cast of presidential candidates have fanned out across Iowa in an attempt to breathe a bit of drama into the most desultory contest since the Hawkeye state became a political stage a generation ago.
From a community college in Council Bluffs to the Bee Hive in Davenport, Republican and Democratic hopefuls appealed for support in tomorrow's caucuses, but the last hours of the race in Iowa have taken on the air of ''garbage time'' in the National Basketball Association.
Texas Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore command impressive organizations and hold comfortable leads in public opinion polls here.
''The outcome is not going to be terribly surprising,'' said Hugh Winebrenner, the caucus historian at Drake University.
The Republican wild card, Senator John McCain of Arizona, is not even competing in Iowa, and Gore's only Democratic challenger, Bill Bradley, appears to be steeling himself for a second-place finish. ''We knew all along that Iowa was a state that rewards entrenched power,'' Bradley said Thursday of Gore's advantage in the ranks of organized labor and within the party establishment.
Although Republican Steve Forbes has invested millions here, he makes no predictions of an upset victory, either. He promises only ''a big surprise,'' which is believed to mean a respectable second-place showing.
In contrast to Iowa caucuses in the past, there seems to be no come-from-behind surge, no election-eve earthquake developing this final weekend.
''The reason has to do with the money primary in 1999,'' said David Yepsen, political editor of the Des Moines Register. ''In the old days, the candidates came here to do well in order to raise money and fight again. Now they have to have money to start with. The winnowing process has been ceded to the money primary.''
Blessed with rich campaign treasuries, both Bush and Gore targeted Iowa, enlisted the help of the best local players in their parties and seemed to suck all the air out of the contest.
''When the Republican race started, a large number of candidates came here to explore,'' said Winebrenner, who has followed every caucus since the event's inception in 1972. ''All that changed when George W. Bush came in with his giant money vacuum cleaner.'' Bush's triumph at a straw poll at a Republican gathering last summer solidified his position and drove several candidates from the race, including Lamar Alexander, Dan Quayle, and Elizabeth Dole.
Gore, meanwhile, ''came in early, trying to lock up everybody in the state,'' Winebrenner said. ''It was interesting for a while when Bradley decided to run, but he's been paddling upstream all the time.''
In the two weeks since Gore put Bradley on the defensive in a televised debate here, accusing the former New Jersey senator of opposing flood relief for Iowa in a long-forgotten Senate vote, Bradley has moved in a funk.
Arguments have broken down in the Democratic fight to arcane disputes over tax proposals and health care. On the Republican side, the candidates parse differences over the degree of their opposition to abortion. Speeches are delivered by rote.
Iowa may cast the first votes in the nation tomorrow night, but the state has played second fiddle to New Hampshire for most of the political season. Because competition is more intense in both party primaries in New Hampshire, Bush, Bradley, and Gore chose to spend part of their time there last week rather than commit themselves to an all-out stretch drive in Iowa.
There are no echoes of the closing rush made here by Patrick J. Buchanan four years ago, when he mobilized resistance to the leading Republican candidate, Bob Dole, and nearly overtook him in the Iowa caucuses.
This year, the Christian conservative movement, united in stunning fashion in 1988 by evangelist Pat Robertson and exploited in 1996 by Buchanan, is now divided among several Republican candidates, including Forbes as well as bit actors Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes. The religious right is unlikely to spring another trap.
Nor is a grass-roots rebellion expected to arise suddenly around the state, such as Rich Bond's army of volunteers that materialized in 1980 after the young organizer put together a network for the elder George Bush that overwhelmed the favorite in the Iowa race, Ronald Reagan.
On the Democratic side, great issues that once loomed over Iowa caucus debates - war and peace, American hostages in Iran, economic inequities - no longer exist. Confronted with prosperity, Bradley has been forced to compete against Gore by calling for bold health-care initiatives, arguing that ''we should be fixing our roof when the sun is shining.''
Throughout the winter, the Iowa contest has lacked passion, a close race, an intense debate, the presence of McCain, or any kind of external dynamic - such as the appearance of Gennifer Flowers and an old letter about the military draft during Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992.
Iowa is attracting attention this weekend, as hundreds of reporters, photographers, and television crew members descend on the state for the climax. But the numbers in the press corps pursuing Bush and Gore are greater than the crowds greeting some candidates.
