he presidential campaign was over here before it began. The US Senate race is a rumor, and 10 incumbent congressmen face light opposition or none at all. Two-thirds of state legislative races are uncontested.
So nothing's going on in Tuesday's Massachusetts election, right? Wrong. Plenty is at stake. There are eight initiative petitions on the ballot, some of which, if passed, could have a profound impact.
There are also some interesting political crosscurrents running beneath the the surface. Here are some to watch.
Cellucci vs. organized labor (Round 2)/b>. The guv is the prime force behind Question 4, the tax rollback petition. It would cut the income tax rate from 5.85 percent to 5 percent over three years, at a cost of more than $1 billion annually. Cellucci has made a strong case that Massachusetts, its economy generating surpluses approaching $1 billion a year and with stabilization funds flush with reserve cash, can safely afford this and make the state more competitive economically.
But a coalition led by public-employee labor unions is vigorously campaigning to defeat Question 4. Opponents will outspend the tax-cut forces by at least 2-1, arguing that the state has unfilled spending needs. This campaign breaks along traditional partisan lines, with about 100 Democratic legislators joining the efforts of labor, a bedrock party constituency.
In fact, the anti-Question 4 forces have not-too-subtly tried to make the question a referendum on Cellucci and his lieutenant governor, Jane Swift. Both are down in the polls, deservedly so, and in the union-financed campaign ads, a color commercial cuts to grainy black-and-photos of the pair and calls Question 4 ''the Cellucci-Swift'' tax cut. The opponents have also twinned 4 with Question 6, a clever but damaging proposition to lop another $700 million or so from state revenues to pay toll and excise tax rebates. That's forced Cellucci to oppose Question 6.
This is a Texas deathmatch, with almost as much at stake as in 1998 when the state AFL-CIO tried mightily but failed to oust Cellucci from the corner office in his fight with Democrat Scott Harshbarger, then the attorney general.
How important is Question 4 to labor? Through Oct. 15, the Campaign for Massachusetts' Future reported raising $1.7 million. Of that, $1.5 million, or 90 percent, came from labor unions. More than half that amount came from teachers unions. Moreover, the National Education Association, of which the Massachusetts Teachers Association is a member, has pledged an additional $350,000 out of a $5-a-member assessment to fight state ballot questions around the country.
How important is it to Cellucci? He has staked his prestige, indeed his governorship, on this, his signature issue.
Where's Teddy? Senator Edward M. Kennedy, a liberal icon and 38-year incumbent, thumbed his nose at a ragtag band of five challengers and refused to debate. Too busy with Senate business. Too busy campaigning for reelection. Well, it turns out, he was too busy stumping out of state for Vice President Al Gore and Hillary Clinton. Shame on him. He should have at least been honest about his reasons for taking the year off.
Kennedy's snub, lack of media attention on the race, and the fringe-like quality of the five challengers could produce an extraordinary number of blanks for the race.
There is, however, a mildly interesting race-within-a-race.
Of that crew, polls indicate Libertarian Carla Howell has a shot at finishing second, ahead of Jack E. Robinson III, the Republican rejected by Cellucci and other GOP leaders. There are only 14,000 Libertarians registered to vote out of 4 million voters, so if Howell surpasses Robinson, it would be a breakthrough. She will also be shooting at the standard for third-party candidates for statewide office. In 1990, Barbara Ahern, a candidate for the Independent High-Tech Party, polled 15.8 percent to finish third in the race for secretary of state.
Checkbook democracy. With enough money, you can create a campaign from thin air. The most blatant attempt to buy a new law is by the out-of-state trio behind Question 8, a bid to allow drug treatment alternative sentencing for some drug dealers. Bankrolling an entire $1-million-plus campaign are currency speculator George Soros of New York and two compatriots from Cleveland and Phoenix. The state's 11 district attorneys, Cellucci, and Attorney General Thomas F. Reilly oppose it as a backdoor approach to decriminalization, but their belated campaign has very little cash to answer a TV ad blitz. If the Soros group wins, it will be a ringing confirmation of the power of money in politics.
