NEW YORK - For the first time in seven months, Hillary Rodham Clinton has pulled ahead of Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani in their race for the US Senate.
John Zogby, the pollster who came up with this finding, attributes the shift entirely to the way the mayor handled the police shooting of Patrick Dorismond.
The statewide poll of 710 likely voters - taken Friday and Saturday, and published in yesterday's New York Post - shows the first lady leading 45-42.
This is within the 3.8 percent statistical margin of error - meaning the contest is practically a dead heat - but it reverses a 7-point lead that Giuliani held just three weeks ago.
Giuliani has experienced a significant erosion among Jews, Hispanics, and voters in New York City in general - areas where he once drew much more support than most Republicans.
In the city, Clinton's lead has widened, from 60-34 three weeks ago to 66-28 over the weekend.
This is key, since political analysts figure Giuliani must lure one-third of the city's voters to win a statewide election. Before, the conventional wisdom was that he would. Now this seems less clear.
Among Jews, Clinton's lead has expanded even further, from a mere 9-point edge three weeks ago (51-42) to a 28-point margin now (56-28).
A similar jolt occurred among Hispanic voters, where Clinton's lead has gone from 58-25 to 81-19.
Even in more conservative upstate New York, Giuliani's lead is dwindling. Three weeks ago, he was ahead by 18 points (53-35). Now, he leads by five points (44-39).
Only in the suburbs, where the mayor still leads 53-34, has his stature been unaffected.
Much can happen in the seven months between now and the election. But this is Giuliani's first misstep and it may be ominous that it concerns a matter of race.
Edward Koch lost his bid for a fourth term as mayor in 1989, after protests over the killing of Yusef Hawkins, a young black man tormented by white racists in Queens. David Dinkins lost his try for a second term in 1993, after his mishandling of riots in Crown Heights, Brooklyn.
