Polls differ on Hispanic support for Bush

Associated Press, February 3, 1999

DALLAS -- As Governor George W. Bush ponders a Republican presidential bid, pollsters are disagreeing over how well he did among Hispanics in his landslide reelection in November.

The issue is important for a candidate whose GOP presidential appeal stems partly from his attractiveness to traditionally Democratic voters, especially Hispanics, a growing bloc in California, New York, Florida, and Texas, all states rich in electoral votes.

One statewide election-day poll, conducted by the Voter News Service for the Associated Press and television networks, found that 49 percent of Hispanics had voted for Bush.

But an exit poll by the William Velasquez Institute of San Antonio for the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project, a Hispanic interest group, put the figure at 39 percent.

Bush, who says he will decide by early April whether to run for president, said on election night that the Voter News Service results showed he can "open the doors of the Republican Party to new faces and new voices."

Bush speaks some Spanish, ran campaign ads in Spanish, and spoke about issues such as education that appealed to Hispanic voters.

The Voter News Service poll surveyed 1,256 Texas voters statewide, including 208 Hispanics. The margin of error for the Hispanic subgroup was plus or minus 9 percentage points.

The Velasquez Institute canvassed 380 Hispanics in 24 precincts in heavily Hispanic areas of El Paso, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, and the Rio Grande Valley, said the institute research coordinator, Robert Aguinaga.

The margin of error for Hispanics was plus or minus 5 points.

Aguinaga said Voter News Service did not poll enough voters in heavily Hispanic precincts.

The service's editorial director, Murray Edelman, defended the 49 percent figure, saying the Velasquez Institute poll missed Hispanic voters who live in predominantly white districts and are more inclined to vote Republican.

The Voter News Service survey also found that Bush, who was reelected with 69 percent of the vote over Democrat Garry Mauro, captured 27 percent of blacks, who usually favor Democrats by about 9 to 1.

Among other traditionally Democratic blocs, Bush won 31 percent of self-described liberals and 62 percent of voters with a family income of less than $50,000. He won 31 percent of those who called themselves Democrats.