Polls show Gore leading in crucial states

By Chris Christoff, Knight Ridder, 9/16/2000

ETROIT - Al Gore has jumped to significant leads in the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois by consolidating Democratic support, attracting independent voters, and cutting into George W. Bush's appeal to men, according to a poll released yesterday.

The Wayne State University/Detroit Free Press poll reveals a sharp shift in voter attitudes in a relatively short period of time, suggesting that the electorate is more volatile than it has been in 12 years.

In Ohio, another key battleground, the poll found Gore in a statistical tie with Bush, but that state remains more hostile to Gore than the other three.

Many analysts say the race will be won in those four industrial states, which have a large number of independent voters and a combined 84 electoral votes - 31 percent of the electoral votes needed to win. All four voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but all have Republican governors.

The most significant gain for Gore was in Pennsylvania, where he leads Bush, 51 percent to 33 percent with 13 percent of the likely voters still undecided. A month earlier, Bush led Gore by 5 percentage points, according to a poll by American Research Group.

Michigan voters chose Gore over Bush, 45 percent to 37 percent, according to the Free Press poll. That is a reverse image of a Free Press poll in the days following the Republican convention, when Bush held an 8-point lead.

Notably, Gore has taken a 12-percentage point lead among Michigan's independent voters, considered the most crucial voting bloc. Gore especially made gains among independent men, who were firmly in Bush's column in August.

In Illinois, the poll found Gore leading Bush 48 percent to 33 percent, with 15 percent of the likely voters still undecided. In polls taken before both parties' conventions, Bush led Gore in Illinois by as much as seven points.

Also, while the race appears to be a dead heat in Ohio, Gore has erased a nine-point lead Bush held in mid-July in another poll.

The new poll was conducted Sept. 6-13 by EPIC/MRA of Lansing, Mich. It surveyed 600 likely voters in Michigan and 400 likely voters in each of the other three states.The margin of error in the Michigan poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points; it is plus or minus 4.9 points in the other three states.

The findings were released as Bush campaigned in the West, where he promised to beef up the nation's military resources, improve veterans' benefits, and provide ''the fullest possible accounting'' of any remaining prisoners of war or soldiers missing in action wars.

Before a small crowd filled with veterans and military personnel in San Diego's Balboa Park, Bush repeated his allegations that the military is in decline.

''Today, the armed forces of the United States are used too much and supported too little,'' he said. ''Military commitments around the world have multiplied, stretching the services to the limit. Our military suffers from back-to-back deployments, poor pay, shortages of spare parts and equipment, and rapidly declining readiness.

Bush then flew to Albuquerque for an appearance on the campus of the University of New Mexico, and is scheduled to rest at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, this weekend.

Gore spoke to about 1,600 students, teachers, and lawmakers at Howard University in Washington, saying that he wants to hire 100,000 public school teachers, give big bonuses to people who teach in underserved areas, and offer paid leave to teachers for professional development.

He touted another centerpiece of his proposal: allowing families a tax deduction or 28 percent tax credit on up to $10,000 in college tuition and fees, a maximum tax break of $2,800. He also said he wants to reduce class sizes in the nation's public schools.

''If a teacher has 35 students in a classroom, that's crowd control,'' he said. ''Students resign themselves to ignorance.''

Material from the Washington Post and Associated Press was included in this report.