he ''ifs'' and ''what ifs'' of the presidential campaign thicken and destabilize the state's political atmosphere like an approaching cold front on a steamy summer day. Whether George W. Bush or Al Gore wins 94 days from now, a wild squall is likely to rearrange the landscape in the Bay State.
Most of the speculation has centered on a Bush victory. Let's call it Scenario A. That would take Republican Governor Paul Cellucci to a post in Washington, elevate Jane Swift to acting governor, and draw a swarm of hungry Democrats to the governor's race in 2002, toppling another set of dominoes on that side of the partisan divide. It's all very plausible. Bush is the clear front-runner now, and Cellucci's support has earned him a reward.
In the past few days, however, as Senator John F. Kerry's chances improved to become Gore's running mate, another set of possibilities has gained altitude. Call this Scenario B.
If Gore wins, and Kerry relinquishes his Senate seat (this line of thinking also holds up if Gore bypasses Kerry this weekend but appoints him later to his Cabinet), Cellucci would appoint a Republican, maybe even himself (or resign and have Swift appoint him), to serve out the remaining two years of Kerry's term. It would be bad form to set himself up, but Cellucci might find the opportunity impossible to pass up.
The great media mentioners now assessing Gore's veep deliberations even suggest this is a handicap for Kerry's candidacy because it could allow the GOP to pad its Senate majority without firing a shot.
Not so fast, says Democratic Secretary of State William F. Galvin, a master of state law, political mischief, and artfully placed three-cushion shots (not necessarily in that order).
Muses Galvin: What if the overwhelmingly Democratic Legislature changed state law to require a special election to fill Kerry's seat within, say 120 days, of his resignation? There's nothing in the state or US constitutions to prevent it, he said. Besides, a Cellucci veto could seem self-serving and be easily overridden. A special election would also deny Cellucci, or any Republican, a two-year headstart and incumbency in 2002.
Perhaps more significantly, because warchests in state campaign accounts cannot be transferred for use in a federal election, an enormous fund-raising advantage in a short campaign would inure to any members of the state's all-Democratic congressional delegation if they ran for the Kerry seat.
At the top of that list would be US Representative Marty Meehan of Lowell, with about $1.7 million in his federal account. Of course, Joseph P. Kennedy II, the former congressman, has about $2 million sitting in his account. If he's plotting a comeback, he too would fit into this category, but the likelihood of Joe Kennedy seeking the junior senator's seat while his uncle, Ted Kennedy, is the senior senator, seems extremely remote.
For his part, Galvin said he merely proposes this as a solution to one of the few drags on Kerry's VP chances.
''If people are seeing this as an impediment to a Kerry vice presidential candidacy, I can offer this as a dispensation,'' Galvin said dryly of his plan. He noted that he would have no interest in running for Senate.
He would, however, have interest in keeping Meehan out of a 2002 governor's primary. Galvin is on the long Democratic list of potential candidates for governor two years from now. So is Meehan. So, for that matter is Senate President Thomas F. Birmingham, whose self-interest would coincide with Galvin's, at least on a special-election bill.
If Meehan won, the Democratic field in 2002 would probably include some combination of the following: Birmingham, Galvin, former national party chairman Steve Grossman, former state senator (and 1998 lieutenant governor nominee) Warren Tolman, and perhaps state Treasurer Shannon O'Brien and Kennedy.
But we are getting ahead of ourselves, as often happens with these ''what if'' stories. After all, Gore might bypass Kerry, and there's a better-than-even chance he'll lose to Bush in November, anyway.
No problem. In that case, we revert to Scenario A, with endless added ripples. Wouldn't Suffolk District Attorney Ralph Martin fit nicely in a Bush administration? Who then runs for DA? Would Swift face a GOP primary challenge? And if Meehan, Birmingham, and Galvin give up their seats to run in two years, there's a list of candidates as long as your arm to succeed them. Does Mitt Romney fit in here somewhere? Attorney General Tom Reilly? Hey, will Tom Finneran be speaker forever?
