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AN OUTSIDER'S VIEW
But in two weeks and two days, voters here will head for the polls reasonably well informed about the candidates and their differences, thanks in no small measure to numerous debates and town hall forums and some intense personal campaigning. The primary has generated more interest in the contests of both parties than many people expected would be the case.
Come Feb. 1, each party will offer voters interesting, clear choices between two equally popular candidates. Expect intense get-out-the-vote campaigns in the final days of the primary.
The Republican contest has proven more volatile than most might have imagined early last summer. George Bush's seemingly insurmountable lead has vaporized. His campaign was derailed for a while by talk of college indiscretions and the ''empty suit'' depiction of the candidate. Now Bush is making a strong recovery. He has been working hard to present himself as an issue candidate, focusing on things like education and taxes. He is building a credible candidacy that is making mainstream Republican voters more comfortable. The reason for backing Bush has become more than simply ''He can win.''
It would not be engaging in hyperbole to call Senator John McCain's ascendancy ''meteoric.'' How could he come on so quickly and so strongly? The answer to that certainly begins with his Vietnam record. It earned him instant respect, admiration and name recognition. That is a terrific place from which to launch a campaign for president. Next, McCain has claimed the high ground. He doesn't engage in attacks on Bush and has linked himself to a commitment to campaign finance reform, something that has put him dangerously at odds with party leaders but which resonates well with the voters. We tend to admire people who take on the system.
McCain has capitalized on his popularity by raising plenty of money and getting his face and voice all over Channel 9, along with Bush, Steve Forbes and the Democratic candidates.
Bush and McCain seem as different as two Republican candidates can be, but you don't have to scratch hard on the surface to learn they are both conservative Ronald Reagan Republicans with more in common than their campaigns reveal.
Forbes has engineered a massive television presence in this campaign, but he remains a distant third among Republicans. He offers reassuring evidence that it takes more than money to win an election. Forbes seems to be a victim of economic good times. His entire campaign revolves around tax reform, but voters want more than that. Other Republicans have borrowed his flat tax, and the public does not seem to share Forbes's obsession with dismantling the IRS.
Alan Keyes, Gary Bauer and Senator Orrin Hatch brought some interesting other voices to the primary, and each has a small but loyal following. They won't make much of a splash on election day, but they will leave New Hampshire with vastly improved name recognition. They may feel cheated, but they got pretty good coverage from the press this time.
Interesting in his absence is Pat Buchanan. Four years ago, he pulled off a stunning victory in the Republican primary; this year, he is not a player. Where will his votes go? The Union Leader, which supported Buchanan four years ago, now is backing Forbes, but don't expect Buchanan's votes to follow.
The Democratic primary has developed into something more interesting than most of us expected. Al Gore and George Bush shared similar fates - they came into their primaries as the favorites of most of the party regulars. They looked hard to beat; now both look beatable. Gore has the support of many of the state's Shaheen Democrats. He came to New Hampshire well financed, well known and generally well liked.
But two things caught up with Gore. One is his association with President Clinton and all the baggage - from Monica to NAFTA - that goes with it. The other is Bill Bradley.
Bradley came into New Hampshire with a well-developed and well-organized campaign. He has attracted strong support from the state's more moderate and liberal voters, and a surprising number of Democratic lawmakers have come out on Bradley's side. Many of New Hampshire's voters like Bradley on health care, gun control, campaign finance reform and other issues where he has taken a generally more well-defined stand that sets him apart from Gore.
Many things can change during the next two weeks, but, regardless of the outcome, it has been a good show. We have seen the candidates frequently and have been given the information we need to make intelligent choices. And there will be distinct choices in either party.
This story ran on page 02 of the Boston Globe's New Hampshire Weekly on 1/16/2000.
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ho could have guessed that the state's presidential primary would work as well as it has this year? There are strong indications that the nation's primary process is coming unraveled. There have been disturbing changes that include jamming most primaries into the weeks immediately following New Hampshire's, coupled with a strong sense that too many good candidates were being forced out by lack of money.