ILTON, N.H. -- In the past week, Senator John McCain has roared within reach of Governor George W. Bush. The closer he gets to Bush, and the closer the campaign gets to the New Hampshire primary, the more the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination looks like a classic battle not of issues but of character and personality.
But the unexpected turn in the 2000 contest - a race that may yet be shaped anew by publisher Steve Forbes, whose billions make him the great unknown factor in the GOP fight - is that the two leading contenders have actually transformed the campaign into a choice between character and personality.
McCain is running on little besides character. The Arizonan's biggest asset is his heroism. Shot down over Hanoi during the bleakest days of the Vietnam War, he endured torture and isolation. Today he trumpets his plan to overhaul the campaign finance system, a brave crusade against the special interests that propelled him and his colleagues into power in the first place.
Bush is running on little besides personality. The Texas governor's biggest asset is his upbeat disposition. The first Texas politician to be elected to two consecutive four-year terms as governor, his outlook reminds many Republicans not only of his father, who seems larger than ever at the 10th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, but also of Ronald Reagan, who taught the GOP the virtues of optimism and the danger of defining itself as merely opposing whatever the Democrats supported.
Issues as mere marketing tools
Some elections are about great issues. This one isn't. Some elections portend great changes in the American political landscape. This one won't. Some elections unleash great waves of passion. This one doesn't.
That's true in the Democratic nomination race, where one knowledgeable moderate Ivy Leaguer faces another, the only major difference being the size of their suits and the size of their health-care plans. But it's even clearer in the GOP race, where the two leading contenders are using issues to sell their political profiles rather than the other way around.
One is the soldier-politician, the other the citizen-politician. One delights in alienating the political establishment, the other in soothing the political establishment. One uses issues to prove he is courageous, the other uses them to prove he is competent.
There is no risk of substance abuse, political-style, in the Republican race.
When McCain rails against the political-finance system, he isn't seeking to persuade audiences to support the details of his own plan or even to convince them of the evils of ''soft money,'' a commodity that is easier to deplore than to define (best try: unregulated contributions to political parties). Instead, he's merely trying to underline his iconoclasm, his willingness to buck the majority of his own party.
And when Bush talks about education spending, he isn't seeking to persuade audiences that vouchers ought to go only to parents of children whose schools have poor test results. He's merely trying to assure voters that along with his winning personality there is enough substance to handle whatever comes along and to take the initiative on matters that concern Americans.
There aren't many. A Gallup Organization poll provides stark evidence for the public's hunger for intangibles. Nine of 10 Americans say leadership skills are important in the presidency, with eight in 10 saying ''good moral character'' is essential. Only about half indicated they cared deeply whether a candidate generally agreed with them on the issues they care about.
''Character is most important, and it's not because people aren't interested in issues,'' said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political scientist at California's Claremont Graduate University. ''It's because there is not one overarching issue that organizes people's thoughts, or threatens their well-being.''
Gambling on voters' mood
But in taking no risk with issues, the Republican candidates are taking enormous risks.
In running a campaign stressing character and courage, McCain is betting that the mettle of military heroism will pay rewards in New Hampshire. In recent years military heroes such as John Glenn (World War II and Korea), Bob Kerrey (Vietnam) and Bob Dole (World War II) have been humiliated here. Moreover, one of the most memorable scenes of one of the state's best loved legends, the 1850 Nathaniel Hawthorne tale of the Great Stone Face, occurs when a military hero, ''a war-worn and weatherbeaten countenance, full of energy, and expressive of an iron will,'' arrives in a homely New Hampshire valley only to find the villagers conclude that ''the gentle wisdom, the deep, broad, tender sympathies, were altogether wanting'' in him.
And in running a campaign with little content, Bush is betting that general contentment with his personality will be enough to win an election. But Americans have voted plenty of times for people who are not lik able. Richard Nixon was elected twice.
