IMI VALLEY, Calif. - Steve Forbes's helicopter has landed. The 600 guests, who have dined at Forbes's expense at the stunning hilltop setting of the Ronald Reagan Library, have assembled in an auditorium. Finally, Nancy Reagan arrives, and Forbes strides rather elegantly onto the stage.
''Tear down the walls of big government!'' Forbes shouts. His eyes gleam behind his glasses, showing pleasure as the echo of Reagan's famous Berlin Wall exhortation fills the room.
''Tear down this tax code!'' Forbes continues, less ringingly, referring to his long-cherished ideal: a 17 percent flat tax.
It is his moment, Forbes believes, his chance to take title to something that cannot - unlike so much else in his campaign - be bought and paid for: Acceptance as Ronald Reagan's true ideological heir.
Not because he worked for Reagan, and broadcast the Reagan revolution to the world as head of Radio Free Europe. Not because he hired Reagan's defense secretary, Caspar Weinberger, as chairman of Forbes Inc., and spent some of his millions to help build the Reagan library and foundation.
No, says Forbes, he is the true Reagan revolutionary in the 2000 presidential field because of what he believes and his rivals do not. He views the other candidates as moderates and no match for his conservative convictions and message. Texas Governor George W. Bush draws his particular contempt for his ''government lite'' beliefs and ''cute'' but hollow slogans.
Forbes doesn't do cute. But after spending five years and at least $56 million of his own money on his quest for the presidency, he remains in single digits in national polls. His flat tax idea may be catching on with some GOP candidates, but so far he is not.
Even in this perfect setting - before an audience of true believers, with the Tapotapo mountains sunlit on the horizon - the music and magic of Reagan are not easily summoned, at least not by someone who is, beyond his beliefs, so unlike Reagan - in his inwardness, his earnest intellectualism, his starched manner.
In an age when campaigns realize that the selling of a candidate requires a certain baring of the soul, Forbes will have none of it. While Senator John McCain of Arizona makes headway with a bestseller titled ''Faith of My Fathers,'' Forbes's recently released campaign book is thick with economic plans and barely mentions his own famous father, Malcolm Forbes. Forbes's wife, Sabina, rarely talks to the press. No candidate running for the presidency retains a sturdier curtain of privacy than Forbes.
Still, behind that curtain, Forbes is contemplating how to proceed. He is once again dipping deep into his personal fortune to finance a massive advertising campaign. And so far, the ads have been biographical or issue-oriented, showing Forbes as a family man with five daughters, or talking with people about his flat tax and Social Security plans.
But some in the Republican Party fear what may happen next.
Many Republicans remember that in 1996, Forbes unleashed a televised assault on front-runner Bob Dole in what was considered to be the epitome of the ''attack ad,'' accusing the Kansan of raising taxes by a trillion dollars. (Forbes still insists this charge is true.) The commercials were brutally effective against Dole, weakening him substantially in the early states, and Dole never recovered. But the ads also backfired on Forbes, who dropped out the race.
This time around, some Republicans worry that a Forbes attack on Bush - which already has been filmed - could temporarily help upstart candidate McCain and hurt the GOP's chances in the long run. The Republican Leadership Council, a moderate organization that includes many Bush backers, last week launched an extraordinary ad campaign saying that the anticipated Forbes attack ads are ''just going to help the Democrats.''
While Forbes this week said the ads are unfair, the concern expressed in them is real to many Republicans.
To Frank Zazanis, seated in the back row at the Reagan library during the Forbes speech, the most important issue is not necessarily Forbes's flat tax, but ''Whoever can win.'' It is crucial, Zazanis said, that the Republican candidates ''not demonize each other.'' Still, after Forbes's speech is over, Zazanis said, ''I'm more impressed now.''
Forbes, in an interview in the Newport Beach Four Seasons Hotel, said that he has learned the lesson of the last campaign, saying, ''I'm not fighting the last war.''
It was slightly more than four years ago that Forbes launched his first presidential campaign with little more than a dream and a checkbook. He was barely known except to those who subscribe to the magazine that bears his name. He ran almost entirely on his proposal for a flat tax, with little grass-roots organization and no ties to the social conservatives who can make or break a candidate in the early states.
With his money and his novelty tax notion, Forbes had his moment in the national spotlight, appearing on the cover of Time and Newsweek and winning the primaries in Delaware and Arizona. But the campaign fizzled after Forbes's negative attacks began - and backfired.
So Forbes remade himself this year. Instead of leaving the impression that he opposes only late-term abortions as he did in 1996, the man who once called Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson a ''toothy flake'' now calls himself a ''pro-life'' absolutist, going much farther than Bush or McCain by vowing to nominate avowed anti-abortionists for judges.
Throughout the year, he has run ads in the first-caucus state of Iowa and the first-primary state of New Hampshire that present him as a kinder, gentler candidate. In one ad, Forbes's five photogenic daughters talk about his kindnesses. Another ad implies that Forbes helped tear down the Berlin Wall, saying that he ''was chosen by Ronald Reagan to lead Radio Free Europe, which helped play a role in the fall of communism.'' The ad then shows Forbes's picture on the cover of Time and Newsweek, without giving the date: 1996.
Now Forbes is under attack from the party establishment and the very constituency he is courting, the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, writing in a recent issue of The Weekly Standard magazine, belittled Forbes for spending a fortune on a doomed campaign, blasting Forbes for ''ego-tripping through a mid-life crisis.''
But Mickey Pohl, who went to Princeton University with Forbes in the 1960s and remains a close friend, said Forbes is driven more than people realize by a lifelong zeal about his economic ideas.
''Some people early in life learn everything there is about baseball statistics or guitars or whatever,'' Pohl said. ''Steve has always been completely absorbed in economics, politics, history and world affairs.
''Steve is not the sort of guy you would make social chairman of your fraternity. But this is a guy you would put on your board or make executor of your will or help you if you have a business problem. He is like a computer with what he knows.''
The question, Pohl said, is whether the country is so enamored of style that ''they always vote for tallest guy with the best cheekbones'' or a candidate with substance such as Forbes.
Forbes has a one-word answer to those who say he can't win: ''Iowa.''
On a recent trip to the first-caucus state, Forbes drew some of the biggest crowds that any candidate has seen. More than 700 people showed up to greet Forbes in Davenport.
All of this has made an impression on one of the most politically important people in Davenport, State Representative Jamie Van Fossen, who also chairs the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee. Van Fossen had been Bush's chairman in Scott County, the third most-populated in Iowa. For weeks, Van Fossen had been urging Bush to put forward a tax plan, but he never received a response. Finally, a deeply frustrated Van Fossen decided earlier this month to join the Forbes campaign, largely because of the publisher's commitment to a flat tax.
''The Bush campaign is very slow on moving,'' Van Fossen said. ''They just had an organizational meeting last week. I decided philosophically I couldn't just sit there, and Forbes is in tune with me on taxes.''
Forbes, in the interview, said that he would have to have a ''credible showing'' in Iowa in order to stay in the race. ''I have to do well in the early contests, no question about it,'' Forbes said.
Forbes believes he will do well in Iowa for three main reasons. his proposal to eliminate the estate tax appeals to those who may inherit family farms; Forbes has recast himself as an anti-abortion candidate in a state where that is very important; and he has field organizers and activists in all 99 counties, while he had nearly none in 1996.
But even if Forbes does reasonably well in Iowa, he may have a tough time repeating his 1996 primary victories in Delaware and Arizona. In 1996, all of the major candidates except Forbes declined to participate in the Delaware primary, acceding to complaints from New Hampshire officials that Delaware was holding its vote too soon. This time around, all of the Republican candidates are expected to compete in Delaware, which has switched to a later date and a caucus system.
Forbes may have even more trouble in his other victory state, Arizona. McCain is the most popular politician in the state, and Bush has the backing of the governor and is expected to do well there.
The Forbes campaign headquarters is spread throughout a suite of offices overlooking the Potomac River in Alexandria, Va. There is no Forbes sign outside the building, which otherwise is occupied by a spa and a health club. It is here that Forbes and his top aides have debated for weeks about their break-out strategy. Some aides argued for an assault on Bush, while others favored a more positive approach.
The danger of going negative is obvious. The research arm of the Forbes campaign has paid for polling and focus groups in New Hampshire, all of which confirmed the fear that negative ads would hurt Forbes as much as anyone.
''Usually when you go with a more aggressive attack, you tend to create another candidate in the race,'' Forbes strategist Greg Mueller said. Mueller knows that better than anyone: he was a top aide in 1996 to Patrick Buchanan, who benefited so much from Forbes's attack on Dole that he won the New Hampshire primary. This time around, there is concern that a Forbes attack will merely serve to help McCain, who is competing strongly against Bush in New Hampshire.
The campaign has compromised by filming all sorts of possible commercials. The first set, which began airing this week, includes the standard biographical and issue ads. But another set, which could run at any time, shows Forbes speaking softly about how he respects Bush, but disagrees with him on many issues.
''If you try to make it a coronation,'' Forbes said, referring to Bush, ''It ain't going to work.''
Forbes's vision, as outlined at the Reagan library, is arguably the most revolutionary put forward by any candidate in the Republican race. Forbes's flat tax proposal is designed to wipe out the Internal Revenue Service. Even popular deductions for mortgages and charitable contributions would not be allowed. There is no doubt that the wealthiest Americans and many large corporations would be the biggest winners under the plan, which has led critics such as Robert McIntyre of the labor-funded Citizens for Tax Justice to complain that the program is a giveaway for the rich.
But Forbes said that ''99 percent'' of taxpayers will come out ahead under his plan, and those who don't could still file under the existing tax system.
Forbes's vision goes far beyond taxes. He wants to eliminate the departments of Commerce and Energy and barely maintain the Department of Education. He wants to allow people to put money in an IRA-like Medical Savings Accounts, which can be tapped for routine health expenses or saved for retirement. He wants to allow workers to invest a majority of the Social Security savings in the stock market, with the government guaranteeing a minimum rate of return.
''This is the next stage of the Reagan revolution,'' Forbes said.
A day after delivering his speech at the Reagan Library, Forbes made a similar visit to the Richard Nixon Library and Birthplace, where strip malls have replaced the citrus groves that surrounded Nixon's modest childhood home in Yorba Linda. A plaque on the library wall tells visitors that the Nixon birthplace should serve as reminder that ''one may come from humble beginnings and aspire to the presidency of the United States.''
Forbes hopes that his not-so-humble beginnings will allow him to do the same.
