EARLY VOTING States where more than 10 percent of the total vote in 1996 or 1998 came from absentee and/or early voting: State 1996 Pct. 1998 Pct. Alaska 14.4 10.6 Arizona 23.0 30.4 Arkansas 14.3 15.5 California 20.7 25.6 Colorado 22.6 30.3 Hawaii 15.7 17.7 Iowa 15.7 15.3 Kansas 12.0 14.0 Montana 13.0 9.5 Nevada 22.1 42.0 New Mex. 24.5 30.9 Oregon 49.2 60.8 So. Dakota 10.5 5.6 Tennessee 23.0 22.9 Texas 31.6 28.2 Vermont 11.4 10.7 Washington 36.2 49.0 Wyoming 15.7 9.9 Source: Estimates by Voter News Service, State Election Officials

Oregon is holding the nation's first all-mail balloting, and millions more will vote absentee in states such as California, Washington, Nevada and Arizona, where control of the House and Senate could be settled.

The numbers keep rising as states make it easier to vote ahead of time.

Washington, where the absentee vote is expected to top 50 percent, has three competitive House races, a key Senate contest and a tight presidential battle, too. The state counts all absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day, so votes will still be coming in after Nov. 7.

"If it's a close election this time, it's possible we could have to wait a week to find out the winner," said Bryan Jones, a political scientist at the University of Washington.

California, where more than 1 million absentee ballots won't be counted until after Election Day, has five House races that could spell the difference in control of Congress. Nevada, where absentee and early voting accounted for more than 40 percent of the 1998 vote, has competitive Senate and House races.

Both parties are maneuvering to turn the early voting into a political advantage.

"We're doing mail, phones, door-to-door canvassing, and we've got our precinct organizations in place and our grass-roots organizations in place," said Ryan Erwin, executive director of the Republican Party in Nevada, where early voting begins Saturday.

"My pledge to voters is we'll quit bugging you when you vote," he said.

In Oregon, Vice President Al Gore's campaign also is kicking off its get-out-the-vote effort this week, when voters start receiving ballots in the mail.

"We're going to focus on making sure our voters turn in their ballots in time for them to count," campaign spokesman David Chai said. "We're going to make sure we go to every single household in our base and to independents and some Republicans as well."

Republicans historically have benefited more from absentee votes because "it's the upscale people and the people who are more regular voters who avail themselves of these things," said Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.

But Doug Lewis, who heads a Houston-based association of election and voter registration officials, said the liberalization of absentee and early voting rules over the past decade may have eroded that GOP edge.

"More than likely now, it's going to fairly accurately reflect the public at large in those states because the process has been so simplified and made as convenient as possible," he said.

That's what happened in Washington, one of the few states that record the differences between absentee and election day voting.

In 1992, when 18 percent of the vote was absentee, President Clinton defeated former President Bush 44 percent to 31 percent among Election Day voters, but just 41 percent to 36 percent among absentees.

Six years later, when almost half the votes cast in the Washington Senate race were absentee, Democratic Sen. Patty Murray defeated Republican Linda Smith, winning 58 percent on Election Day and 59 percent of the absentees.

More than half the states either have liberalized their absentee voting rules or allow voting before Election Day, or both. Those with liberalized rules no longer require voters to state a reason for being unable to vote Election Day in order to get an absentee ballot.

In 1996, absentee and early voting accounted for more than 10 percent of the total vote in 18 states, more than 20 percent in nine states, and more than 30 percent in three states.

In 1998, early voting made up more than 10 percent of the total vote in 15 states, more than 20 percent in eight states, more than 30 percent in five states and more than 40 percent in three states.