DAVID NYHAN

Republicans jockey for position in N.H.

By David Nyhan, Globe Staff, May 5, 1999

MANCHESTER, N.H. - You always learn something when the clashing Republican clans convene at the beginning of primary season. What did I learn Sunday?

- Elizabeth Dole's measured challenge to the gun lobby was a gutsy gambit in gun-loving New Hampshire. Some grumbling and a hoarse boo could be heard from the firearms fraternity among the 1,200 steak-chewing GOP stalwarts. But female voters may elevate the post-Columbine gun debate to the top of their concern list. Of more concern to party pros is Dole's difficulty in raising money, getting organized, and demonstrating she's ready for the big time. She gives a neat speech -- but that's maybe one-10th of the successful candidate's job description. Her best bet may be to quit early and ask Bush to make her his running mate.

- Gary Bauer gives a helluva speech. The diminutive conservative activist devoted his seven-minute dinner speech to the slaying of the Columbine schoolgirl who affirmed her Christianity before her killer fired. It was sober, jarring, a bit out of place, but very effective. His campaign is a vehicle for the God Squadders who view abortion and moral decay as top issues.

- Steve Forbes is better than he used to be. The megamillionaire still travels in a cocoon of dark-suited Moonie-like acolytes. But he gave a sober, focused talk that tax-haters will find persuasive. His financial clout and past record as an attack ad wrecker of Bob Dole last time may convince front-runner George W. Bush to spurn public funding and amass private money to do unto Forbes before Forbes doeth unto George W.

- Lamar Alexander is still in the mix. It's troubling he's still only a single-digit presence here, but his endorsement Sunday by former US representative Bill Zeliff was brandished as proof he's not fading. Lamar was set to raise $1 million last night at a Nashville dinner. But Bush is the heavyweight champ of money, and Forbes doesn't need any.

The absence of Bush, Pat Buchanan, and Senator John McCain deprived the audience of hearing three men who seem assured of finishing in the top half of next February's primary. But the collapse of the Republican Party's leadership in Congress over the NATO war in Yugoslavia has exposed a chasm in the "Get Our President" party's core: Beyond hating Clinton, what do they stand for?

It was unsettling to hear a Republican crowd, in the live free or die state, applauding Alan Keyes for denouncing "an un-American war." Mrs. Dole's plea -- "We must win the war because Milosevic is a war criminal, ladies and gentlemen; we've got to win this war!" was greeted less enthusiastically than Dan Quayle's dismissal of the Balkan war: "A superpower does not get involved in civil wars."

When a rock-ribbed New Hampshire crowd applauds Alan Keyes for denouncing Clinton as "morally defective," castigates "15 left-wing NATO governments" and rails against "an un-American war," something has gone off the tracks in the Granite State; it may be the right wing of the GOP.

The voters are still searching for a cause as well as a candidate. I met a retired Coast Guardsman from California rubbernecking the GOP field. From his pants pocket he pulled a campaign button bearing photos of Texas Bush and Mrs. Dole. Bush-Dole. "Here's the ticket," he said cryptically. But others are turned off by the royalist notion of backing the son and spouse of the last two nominees.

"The party needs some new blood," insisted Mrs. Mary Caprio, holding a sign for US Representative John Kasich of Ohio. Her father was an Irish immigrant who landed in Boston. She was raised a Democrat but moved to New Hampshire with husband, Pete, who's in real estate. They pay $12,000 a year in property taxes on their Nashua home. She ran a coffee party for Kasich, whose theme of tax relief for the middle class resonates with her.

Outside the white tent corraling the faithful was the man as responsible as anyone for making Bush Sr. president: former governor John Sununu. The old pro planted his candidate, Quayle, squarely in front of one of two entrances to the dinner, collaring diners for a photo op with Quayle.

Senator John McCain was back home in Arizona celebrating his son's birthday, but he had one of New Hampshire's most popular politicians, former senator Warren Rudman, glad-handing on his behalf. The McCain crew also featured Senator Chuck Hegel of Nebraska, another Vietnam War hero, and Ed Alvarez, the longest-serving POW from that war. McCain's network of war buddies and veterans may be the Arizonan's secret weapon.

Bush's secret weapon? Either Senator Judd Gregg or the popcorn cart. Since Gregg's support is no secret, I'll go with the lady who ladled out free popcorn.

The WMUR-CNN poll Monday had it: Bush 37 percent, Dole 16, McCain 14, Buchanan 7, Forbes 6, Alexander 5, Quayle 4, Senator Bob Smith 2, Kasich 1, and Bauer below 1. Dole was down from leading a January survey by 15 points, which split evenly between Bush and McCain. To her, VP may just look OK.