REENVILLE, S.C. - The radio ad by an antiabortion group opens with a most unlikely question about one of Senator John McCain's top advisers: ''Who is Warren Rudman?'' The ad proclaims that Rudman favors abortion rights, and then suggests that McCain wants to appoint him as attorney general. So, the ad concludes, ''Don't vote for John McCain.''
While McCain yesterday laughed off the ad and said he had no intention of nominating the former senator from New Hampshire as attorney general, the subtext of the spot is one of the most important in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary. By some estimates, as many as 45 percent of likely voters identify themselves as religious conservatives, more than three times as many as in New Hampshire and the most of any early primary state.
For months, George W. Bush's strategy has been to walk to victory in the arms of those religious conservatives, just as his father did in 1992 and Bob Dole did in 1996. But the Christian Coalition operation here, once considered the strongest in the nation, has become seriously frayed as the national organization tries to dig itself out of debt. Religious conservatives, meanwhile, have spread their support throughout the campaigns here, with Bush by no means assured of a majority.
''The person who loses the religious conservative vote will lose the primary,'' said Ralph Reed, the former executive director of the Christian Coalition who was hired as a Bush strategist largely to ensure a victory in South Carolina and several other Bible Belt states. ''The question has become, `What will the religious conservatives do?'''
With Reed's help, the Bush campaign this week began a new effort to woo religious conservatives, partly by seeking to alarm them about McCain. In one new Bush television ad, McCain is accused of proposing to eliminate a tax deduction for charitable contributions. A companion radio ad paid for by Bush says that McCain is ''anything but compassionate'' toward churches.
While McCain dismisses the claim as ridiculous - noting that his proposal is aimed at closing a tax break for art collectors who give away over-appraised property - the religion-based assault is unlike anything he has faced in his presidential campaign. The Bush campaign has denied that it has coordinated efforts with the Right to Life group, and the campaign stands by the attack on how McCain's tax plan would affect churches. In the ad paid for by the Right to Life political action committee, Rudman is quoted as once saying that the Christian conservative movement would ''discredit any party that is unwise enough to embrace such a group.''
Rudman, 69, in a telephone interview yesterday, said that abortion is ''one of the one or two issues I disagree with John on out of hundreds.'' He blasted the group that paid for the ad, saying that he was standing by his policy of ''not responding to what I considered to be trash commercials written by a group of imbeciles.''
McCain dismissed the ad as ''hilarious. Warren Rudman. A household name in South Carolina! It's very funny ... Warren Rudman is not interested in being attorney general of the United States.''
A few months ago, the Bush camp thought it had wrapped up the religious conservative vote when Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson all but endorsed the Texas governor. Bush, according to Robertson, was ''worthy of support,'' adding that ''I don't see how he could lose it.'' As for McCain, Robertson said he was unfit for the presidency because his campaign finance overhaul proposal would gut the Christian Coalition.
But religious conservatives, despite their large numbers here, ''no longer control the machinery of power'' in South Carolina, said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia professor and longtime observer of the Christian Coalition.
To further complicate matters for the Texas governor, the religious conservative vote is likely to be diluted because independents and Democrats can vote in the Republican primary, Sabato said.
An American Research Group poll released yesterday indicated Bush had 46 percent, McCain had 39 percent, and Alan Keyes had 7 percent support in the state, with 8 percent undecided. The poll of 600 likely voters has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
McCain's support among Republicans dropped and his unfavorable rating crept up from 4 percent to 15 percent. Likely Republican voters cited advertising and telephone calls providing negative information about McCain as reasons for switching from McCain to Bush.
The Bush effort has taken on an extra air of urgency because Steve Forbes, who made a major effort to court religious conservatives, dropped out of the race yesterday. While Bush is likely to pick up support from some of the religious conservatives who backed Forbes, many other Forbes supporters backed the publisher because they disliked Bush - and are now likely to back McCain.
Indeed, Bush can't even be sure that religious conservatives will move his way. Lois Eargle, one of the state's most prominent Christian Coalition members, said in a telephone interview that she was switching from the Forbes campaign to McCain and dismissed the notion that McCain was not in tune with religious conservatives.
''They talk about McCain being liberal, but the Christian Coalition rated him at 73 percent'' on his voting record ''and anything over 50 percent is good,'' said Eargle, the elected auditor of Horry County, which includes Myrtle Beach. The Christian Coalition does not rate governors, so there is no ranking for Bush.
But Bush backers say the Texas governor is most in sync with religious conservatives, who are among the most likely voters. Bush made headlines earlier this year when he said the philosopher he most admired is Jesus Christ.
Still, some of the more ardent conservatives have never been comfortable with Bush because he - like McCain - refuses to say whether he would have an antiabortion litmus test for judicial nominations or for a vice president. With Forbes out of the race, Alan Keyes is the only remaining candidate who would impose such a litmus test.
That is why Keyes is expected to be a factor here, as he was in Iowa, where he got 14 percent of the vote. Some analysts think Keyes could capture a similar percentage here, draining significant support from Bush.
James Guth, a widely recognized expert on religion and politics who is professor of political science at Greenville's Furman University, said that the Christian Coalition is far less organized than it was in the last two primaries.
There are numerous reasons for the Christian Coalition's lower profile in South Carolina this year. The state chairwoman, Roberta Combs, last year became executive vice president of the national organization in Virginia. She still retains her title here and has been in the state recently, but Guth, Eargle, and other observers interviewed this week said the state coalition has not been as active since she took the national post.
Eargle, who is the Horry County chairman of the Christian Coalition, said that after Combs left, ''there was nobody to take up her slack.''
Certainly, religious conservatives are no monolith, with much diversity among evangelicals, fundamentalists, and members of various denominations. But the movement has been notable in the past for its organized, activist core. In 1998, however, the weakness was evident, when Republican religious conservatives failed in their effort to defeat US Senator Fritz Hollings, a Democrat, or to reelect then-Governor David Beasley, a Republican.
The Christian Coalition referred all calls about South Carolina to Combs, who did not return a call seeking comment.
Still, Reed, the former coalition executive director and Bush strategist, said that in the end, religious conservatives will come home to Bush, just as many did for Bush's father and Dole in the last two primaries.
Said Reed, ''A lot of premature obituaries have been written about this constituency.''
