Several tight races may make for strange Election Day fallout

By Susan Milligan, Globe Staff, 11/6/2000

ASHINGTON - Imagine this: The next president of the United States is determined by the vote of a single congressman. Control of the House of Representatives is decided by an Ohio representative facing a grand jury indictment, and the Senate majority comes down to the election of a dead man.

These are some of the real - if remote - possibilities presented by the nail-biting closeness of the contests for control of the White House, the US Senate, and the House of Representatives - where, if no candidate wins an Electoral College mandate, the president will be chosen.

Washington politicos, who by this time in an election year are usually gossiping about who will be in the new Cabinet, are instead fretting about all the odd scenarios they could face Wednesday morning.

''This is a Rubik's Cube election,'' said Michael Meehan, a senior aide to Senate minority leader Tom Daschle, Democrat of South Dakota. ''There are 27 possible outcomes.''

Theoretically, there are at least that many. Either Texas Governor George W. Bush or Vice President Al Gore, in a dead heat, could win both the popular vote and an Electoral College majority. Or, either man could win the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to assume the presidency, while losing the overall raw vote.

And there is a highly unlikely, but still plausible, scenario in which the Electoral College deadlocks at 269 votes apiece for Bush and Gore. In such a situation, the president would be selected by the House of Representatives.

The new president could face a Congess with both chambers controlled by either Republicans or Democrats, or a House and Senate led by opposing parties.

That's assuming one party wins a clear majority in both houses.

The Senate could well split 50-50, meaning the new vice president would cast the tie-breaking votes, not only on Senate legislation but on committee chairmanships.

There are other complications: Connecticut Senator Joseph I. Lieberman is running for both his Senate seat and as the Democratic nominee for vice president. If Gore wins, and the Senate splits 50-50, Lieberman would presumably give up his Senate seat, and the governor of Connecticut - a Republican - would name a Republican replacement.

That would give the Republicans a 51-49 advantage and Lieberman a bittersweet victory as vice president.

Then there's the question of the late Governor Mel Carnahan of Missouri, killed in a plane crash but still on the ballot. The new governor has said he'd appoint Democrat Carnahan's widow, Jean, to the seat if the deceased governor wins. Republicans are already talking about a possible legal challenge, should Carnahan best the incumbent senator, John Ashcroft.

On the House side, close elections could cause party mayhem.

Traditionally, Democrats vote for a Democratic speaker, and Republicans vote for a Republican. But if the election is close, either party might try to woo sympathetic members of the other party to its side, perhaps promising rewards such as committee chairmanships.

One likely swing vote in such a scenario is Representative Jim Traficant, a volatile Ohio Democrat who has been cozying up to the Republicans.

Traficant, facing an expected grand jury indictment, is running for reelection as a Democrat. But recently, he has been sitting with the Republican members during what have been highly partisan and acrimonious floor debates. Traficant has said publicly that he will vote for a Republican speaker next year.

Traficant is reviled by many of his colleagues for his boisterous and erratic floor behavior; a former Democratic party county chairman in Ohio once tried to have Traficant declared legally insane. But ''people are very nice, very polite'' to this holder of the potential swing vote, said Representative Edward J. Markey, Democrat of Malden.

If Traficant is the potential spoiler on the House side, Lieberman could be his party's downfall in the Senate. Since Lieberman insisted on the employment insurance of running for both the Senate and the vice presidency, the Democrats would actually have to win a clear 51-49 majority to take back control.

If Gore loses and the Senate splits 50-50, Lieberman keeps his day job but the vote ties will be broken by Dick Cheney, the Republican vice presidential candidate.

When Lieberman was tapped to be Gore's running mate, it seemed very unlikely that the Democrats could take back control of the Senate. But polls have tightened since then, and several Democrats have even pulled ahead of incumbent Republicans.

The scenario has some on the Hill grumbling that Lieberman should take the political bullet and keep his Senate seat, even if Gore is elected. That way, Gore could name another vice president, and Democrats could control both the White House and the Senate.

''A bunch of people here are really mad at Lieberman,'' said a Senate Democratic aide.

Lieberman's spokesman, Dan Gerstein, was taken aback by the suggestion. Lieberman ''feels very confident that that situation is not going to happen,'' Gerstein said. ''We're going to reclaim the majority with room to spare.''

Both parties profess confidence that it will dominate all three institutions in the elections. Political analysts agree that a Republican sweep is more likely, if only because Democrats start with a deficit in both chambers of Congress.

But campaign strategists in both parties also agree that the races are all very close. Congressmen have been holed up in their offices in groups, examining poll numbers and identifying vulnerable candidates in need of help.

Many members of Congress, especially those in safe seats, such as Massachusetts' entire delegation, have been traveling around the country to stump for candidates of their party.

Both parties are already envisioning a possible delay in determining a majority. Several races may well be decided by absentee ballots, and several may also be contested in court.

Narrow majorities are expected for each house of Congress, paving the way for legislative gridlock even worse than this year's.

''The next ugly scenario is that we get a president who barely makes it, a Senate split 51-49, and a continuing dysfunctional House of Representatives,'' said pollster John Zogby. ''Now that is a challenge.''