ASHINGTON - His detractors deny it and his staff insists they do not yet believe it, but if the polls are true, Vice President Al Gore could sew up the Democratic presidential nomination before spring.
In a remarkable turnaround from last fall, Gore is now the overwhelming favorite over former New Jersey senator Bill Bradley among Democrats nationwide, besting Bradley 69 percent to 27 percent in a recent Harris poll. The vice president also has comfortable leads in California and New York, two of the 16 states holding primaries and caucuses March 7.
Gore is heavily favored among African-Americans, even though Bradley has made race relations a central part of his campaign. The black vote is expected to usher Gore to a series of victories in the South March 14. By that time, the Gore campaign hopes, Bradley will have run out of steam and out of money.
The scenario is the opposite of what was supposed to happen. Last fall, the Republican Party was rallying early around the heavily financed Texas governor, George W. Bush, determined to anoint a nominee early and send him unbloodied into the general election.
And the Democrats, many of whom were longing for a fresh voice, were giving Bradley their attention and their money, while Gore was forced to overhaul his campaign to stave off Bradley's challenge.
''It's an entire role reversal,'' said Rich Bond, a Republican political consulant. ''You would never have thought, six months ago, that McCain would be where he is,'' and Bradley where he is, said Bond, who supports Bush but who is not working for any campaign.
The Gore campaign insists it is taking nothing for granted, and the vice president has a relentless campaign schedule through March 7.
But campaign workers posses a confidence that verges on smugness. Staff members are already talking about Gore's taking a couple of weeks of ''down time'' after the March 14 primaries in the South. So wide is Gore's lead that even the press is losing interest. The campaign has to scramble to attract enough traveling press to warrant chartering a press plane.
Gore has been racking up endorsements from elected officials and interest groups. In many cases, the endorsements deflect some of the criticisms Bradley has leveled at Gore. His backing by Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy, for example, gives some assurance to leftist Democrats that Gore, a professed centrist, will not abandon them.
The recent endorsement by the National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League dilutes Bradley's efforts to paint Gore as wobbly on abortion rights. Bradley does not question Gore's current commitment to abortion rights, but notes that Gore has changed his position on abortion issues over the years.
Some elected Democrats are waiting a bit longer to go public, but the Gore campaign expects a stream of endorsements in the next couple of weeks. When Gore interrupted his campaign to fly to Washington for a tie-breaking vote earlier this month, six or seven senators approached Gore and said they would be endorsing him, said a source close to the campaign.
The NARAL endorsement infuriated Bradley supporters, who say he has a much stronger record on abortion rights than Gore. But it also underscored the cold reality of politics: People want to line up behind a winner early.
''My own feeling was that it was political,'' said an angry Carol Greitzer, a Bradley supporter who was NARAL's first president from 1969 to 1972.
''People see the train is beginning to leave the station,'' said Chris Lehane, Gore's spokesman. ''All these organizations have made it possible, but they also want to make sure they're on board.''
Gore's fund-raising is picking up in California, where the vice president's lead in the polls is widening, said Mel Levine, a former Democratic congressman who is raising money for Gore.
''In the past few weeks, there's been a renewed surge of energy'' for Gore, with contributors sending unsolicited checks for the vice president's campaign, Levine said. Some of the donors had previously given money to Bradley, he said.
Gore's success may be ensured by his strong support among African-American voters, an important constituency in New York and a critical vote in the South.
While Bradley's message of racial unity may be thoughtful and sincere, black voters will end up voting for Gore to reward Clinton, who is very popular among African-Americans, said Earl Black, a professor at the University of South Carolina.
Gore has already lined up key endorsements in New York. He picked up the backing of Floyd Flake, a former congressman who is a minister in Queens, and averted a public confrontation with followers of the Rev. Al Sharpton by meeting secretly with Sharpton in the Manhattan apartment of Gore's daughter.
In the South, blacks make up a bigger percentage of the vote than any other constituency group, Black said. If Bradley cannot make serious headway among African-Americans, he cannot take the Southern states, Black said.
