he first Democratic and Republican debates of the new year appear to have revealed more about the top contenders for the presidential nominations than all the previous debates combined.
Although some viewers thought Bill Bradley won Wednesday night's debate against Vice President Al Gore, a number of other viewers, based on various reports, saw Bradley actually lose ground.
They, perhaps for the first time, saw Bradley come across as a bit more mean-spirited and, at times, condescending and perhaps too sarcastic during his exchanges with Gore, especially over Gore's strong criticism of his health plan. As for Gore, he appeared to be more comfortable than in previous debates. Perhaps the endorsement earlier that day by Senator Edward M. Kennedy, still very popular and influential, helped his comfort level.
If Bradley continues to show more of this negative side, it could cost him precious votes in next month's New Hampshire primary.
In Thursday's Republican debate, Arizona Senator John McCain, who is in a dead heat with Texas Governor George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary race, may have lost a bit of his moral high ground. McCain faced questions about his alleged efforts to influence the Federal Communications Commission in a case that involved a big contributor to his campaign. McCain defended his actions, but some political observers thought that having to do so cost him some stature.
Neither Bradley nor McCain can afford to lose ground in New Hampshire. If they lose there, even by slim margins, their chances of gaining the nominations later this year become virtually nonexistent. If they lose by substantial margins, it will be all but over for them in this year's presidential race.
If Gore wins in New Hampshire, it will provide great impetus to his quest for the nomination. Despite some polls giving Bradley a lead, some activists believe that a solid turnout by organized labor could skew the results in Gore's favor.
Even if Gore loses, it will not mean he is destined to lose the nomination. He is expected to do well in the Southern primaries as well as in other areas of the nation. And Gore is further expected to have more than enough support among influential Democrats to gain the nomination at the party's convention. So he, as did President Clinton, can lose the New Hampshire primary, but still win it all.
If underdogs Bradley and McCain both win, both their candidacies will get a definite boost, though that may not carry them far enough to win other key primaries necessary to grab their parties' nominations. Bradley, for example, could do well in New York, where he played professional basketball, but lose other key primaries where Gore would be strong with well-established Democrats. McCain is not expected to out-duel Bush in the Southern primaries, especially next month's South Carolina vote, where Bush has the money and the support to do well.
Two other presidential hopefuls found out in recent years that winning New Hampshire primaries no longer means winning the nomination is inevitable.
The late Paul Tsongas won a surprise victory over Clinton in 1992. Tsongas, a former US senator from Massachusetts, had to drop out of the race later on, lacking money and other victories. Clinton, who turned his second-place finish into his ''comeback kid'' reputation, went on to become the nominee and the president.
On the Republican side, Pat Buchanan won an unexpectedly strong second-place showing in 1992, only to lose the nomination to Vice President George Bush. Buchanan won the Granite State in 1996, only to lose the nomination to Bob Dole.
So McCain and Bradley desperately need to win in New Hampshire, much more so than Bush or Gore, to keep their presidential hopes alive. But neither Bush nor Gore can afford a substantial loss there - for that would give McCain and Bradley the appearance of being even bigger winners, and that could generate more support for them in later primaries.
Neither McCain nor Bradley can afford to make any mistakes in these remaining weeks before Feb. 1. The polls show that the state's vote is so volatile that even a small gaffe by either man could turn into a political disaster.
Soon it will be up to New Hampshire voters to decide. But it is as much up to Bradley and McCain in the remaining weeks how the voters will arrive at their decision.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
