ANCHESTER, N.H. - When Texas Governor George W. Bush arrives for breakfast at the Country Kitchen restaurant in Newport this morning, it will be just his fifth visit to the state this year.
And later tonight, when five of his rivals gather for a candidates' forum in Durham, Bush will be gone, having slipped across the border to Vermont for a long-planned fundraiser.
Call him the phantom front-runner: the candidate who easily dominates the polls here, yet has made fewer trips to the first-in-the-nation primary state than any other candidate except Utah Senator Orrin G. Hatch, who lags near the back of the pack in the 2000 presidential race.
So far, Bush's image has not been hurt by the fact that he has been so seldom on the scene. But even Bush allies here voice cautious concern that their candidate risks seeming to flout one of the truisms of New Hampshire's primary: voters expect candidates to court them, preferably in person.
''Maybe this is all the time he can allot to it,'' said Rhona Charbonneau, Bush's Hillsborough County chairman and a Hudson selectman. ''I don't know why he's not coming more to the state. He's got to do more grassroots, not just photo ops.''
David Currier, the vice chairman of the GOP for Belknap and Merrimack counties, has always been a Bush man, dating back to 1980. ''I'd be remiss in not saying he should be here more,'' said Currier, who is neutral because of his role in the party. ''But the thing is, the more people who come in contact with him, the better off he's going to be ultimately.''
Bush's visits to New Hampshire have been relatively rare, in part because he delayed his first campaign trip until June, when the Texas Legislature adjourned.
Other candidates came early and often. Arizona Senator John McCain is on his 17th visit this week; for Steve Forbes, it is his 13th visit; for Gary Bauer, his 10th. On the Democratic side, Vice President Al Gore had made 15 Granite State trips as of yesterday; Bill Bradley, 11.
Bush's opponents, of course, are eager to make the case that the Texas governor is pursuing the primary strategy of a cautious front-runner, hesitant to take unscripted questions from voters or to debate other candidates. They are quick to note that Bush has decided not to attend tonight's Republican debate in Durham, favoring a party fund-raiser in Sugarbush, Vt., instead. His campaign said he committed to that event first and it will be his only trip to Vermont.
Next week, he will miss another GOP forum at Dartmouth College because he wants to be on hand when his wife receives an award in Texas. But he will attend a forum sponsored by WMUR-TV on Dec. 2.
''He's taking the entire election for granted,'' said Richard Lessner, the senior adviser to Gary Bauer. ''He seems to believe a healthy lead in the polls and a potful of money means you don't have to expose yourself to the voters.''
''He's saying retail politics doesn't matter in New Hampshire, money and my front-runner status does,'' said Paul Young, a senior adviser to Forbes. ''We're going to find out if the voters are going to let him get away with that.''
Bush campaign officials counter that they understand the importance of New Hampshire-style-politicking and that Bush will be stepping up his schedule here, with six days of campaigning planned over the next four weeks. On top of that, he is expected to go on the air with television advertising next Tuesday, introducing himself to voters on the issues.
The gradual ramping up of the campaign schedule here was always Bush's long-term plan, said Karl Rove, his chief strategist.
Rove recently came to New Hampshire to find out what focus groups think of Bush's advertising, his message, and of criticism of the governor by Steve Forbes.
Young said the focus groups said Bush needs to get more engaged here, but Rove said the responses showed the campaign is on track.
''Our advertising is well received in the state and Forbes's attacks on the stump are falling flat,'' Rove said. ''It gives us strong evidence we're in great shape.''
Still, Joel Maiola, Bush's New Hampshire director, acknowledged that it has been a long time since the candidate visited Sept. 7-8. Bush was supposed to return Sept. 19, but a shooting in a church in Texas prompted him to cancel so he could attend funeral services.
''It was too long in between, but when there's a tragedy in your home state you should be there as governor,'' said Maiola.
Still, Maiola said, the Bush campaign is taking nothing for granted, and has organized in every ward, town and county here.
''A lot of campaigns are very envious of Governor Bush's position in New Hampshire,'' said Maiola. ''It's a sign of early desperation to categorize his campaign as anything but aggressive.''
But Charbonneau is a Bush backer, not an envious opponent, and she remains a little concerned. She said she believes Bush should be concentrating his time in the golden triangle of Nashua, Hudson, and Londonderry, where 51 percent of the states' voters live.
''I just think he's got to come in more than what he's doing,'' said Charbonneau. ''Maybe they feel he doesn't have to.''
Fidele J. Bernasconi, the editor of the Hudson-Litchfield News, is not concerned about the number of days Bush has spent in New Hampshire. What troubles him is that he has written to the governor for his views on the federal funding of special education. The Hudson school board also sent a letter, and so did the Hudson Board of Selectmen and the Milford school board.
''He hasn't answered anyone,'' said Bernasconi. ''I think Mr. Bush thinks he's got it wrapped up. I think he's in for a very rude awakening.''
During Bush's visit to New Hampshire today, he will talk to people at a fire station chat in Newport and meet more voters at the Colony Mills Marketplace in Keene.
If his past few visits are any indication, he is likely to draw huge crowds of people who want to shake his hand, snap his photo, and hear him speak.
Thomas D. Rath, the Concord attorney who once advised Lamar Alexander, said Bush is doing fine. Rath's last candidate, Alexander, never seemed to leave New Hampshire after the 1996 primary. His crowds dwindled and his appeal seemed to evaporate the more time he spent in the state.
''I'm an expert that frequent presence does not guarantee success,'' said Rath.
David M. Carney, a Republican political strategist from Peterborough, added: ''No one in February will remember that Bush didn't come here very much this summer if he comes a lot in January.''
