George W. Bush, center, with his wife Laura, right, signs his check as supporters and a waitress stand by during his breakfast in Greenville, S.C., Saturday. (AP Photo)

South Carolina gives Bush major GOP primary win

Texan coasts to easy victory; McCain reasserts pledge against negative ads

By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, and Curtis Wilkie, Globe Correspondent, 2/20/2000

HARLESTON, S.C. - George W. Bush capitalized on an outpouring of Republican support yesterday to win the South Carolina primary by a decisive margin, dashing Senator John McCain's dream, after his New Hampshire victory, that his reformist appeal would trigger a huge turnout of Democrats and independents here.

South Carolinians did turn out in droves, but it proved a turnout tide that lifted Bush. With 99 percent of precincts reporting early today, the Texas governor led with 53 percent to 42 percent for McCain.

Radio talk show host Alan Keyes was running a distant third place, at 5 percent.

Bush, celebrating his comeback from a New Hampshire debacle, used his victory speech to try to undercut McCain's message, a tactic that helped him win in South Carolina and that he hopes to continue in the more moderate state of Michigan, which holds its primary Tuesday.

''It is a victory of a message that is compassionate and conservative and it is the victory of a messenger of a reformer with results,'' said a clearly relieved Bush.

McCain called Bush shortly after the polls closed at 7 p.m. to concede defeat. But shortly thereafter, McCain offered a taut and tough-sounding concession speech that included a series of implied rebukes of Bush.

''I will never dishonor the nation or myself by letting ambition overcome principle,'' McCain said. And he issued this warning to Bush as the two candidates headed to Michigan: ''I wish him a good night's rest. He's going to need it, my friends, for we have just begun to fight, and I can't wait for the next round.''

McCain also said he would keep his pledge, made during the heat of the South Carolina campaign, not to engage in negative campaigning of the sort he has accused Bush of employing.

''I will not take the low road to the highest office in the land,'' he said.

The seesawing Republican battle now shifts to the Michigan primary Tuesday, with the pressure on McCain to run strongly there and in his home state of Arizona on the same day. It was a dramatic turn of events after McCain upended the GOP race with his landslide win in New Hampshire, which enabled him to arrive in South Carolina tied in the polls with Bush.

The yawning 18-day gap between New Hampshire and South Carolina slowed McCain's march and gave Bush time to regroup and retool his strategy. In the end, Bush was saved by the much-discussed South Carolina ''firewall,'' kept intact by the Republican Party base that listened to the Texas governor's argument that McCain was spending too much time appealing to Democrats.

McCain's hope for a massive turnout came through, with more 500,000 voters going to the polls, more than twice the 1996 showing. But the huge turnout proved to be Republican-based and a boon for Bush.

''All the punditry said a big turnout would hurt my candidacy,'' Bush said on CNN. ''I felt just the opposite.''

Indeed, after all the talk about Democratic crossover voters, McCain was hurt by the small size of the Democratic turnout.

Exit polls showed that 61 percent of the vote came from Republicans, 30 percent from independents, and only 9 percent from Democrats. While McCain was strong among independents and Democrats, he could not overcome the flood tide of Republicans, two-thirds of whom backed Bush.

McCain's overt appeal to Democrats may have backfired, motivating many conservatives to turn out against him.

McCain was also hurt by other factors. Turnout among black voters, a huge portion of the Democratic electorate, was only 1 percent. And McCain, who made much of his days as a Vietnam prisoner of war, barely won the veteran vote, by 49 percent to 47 percent, according to the exit poll.

Bush, who lost in New Hampshire with what aides described as a lackluster effort, won in South Carolina after waging a much tougher campaign, blasting McCain with harsh advertisements that questioned the senator's conservative credentials and accused the Arizonan of trying to take away tax breaks for contributions to churches.

Exit polls conducted by the television networks and The Associated Press showed that Bush won the vote of self-described religious conservatives by a 3-to-1 margin.

''If it were not for the massive negative campaign run against us, primarily in the religious conservative community, we would have carried the state,'' McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, told reporters last night.

He was referring to Bush ads that said McCain's tax plan would limit the deductibility of church contributions, a charge rebutted by McCain. But McCain has long had trouble with religious conservatives, with Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson saying that McCain was unfit to be president because his campaign-finance plan would hurt organizations such as antiabortion groups.

John Weaver, McCain's political director, offered this acid assessment: ''Ralph Reed, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, and Bob Jones ought to be congratulated'' for helping to turn out the Christian conservative, antiabortion vote for Bush. But, he added, ''I don't know if Bush can run as a Dixiecrat in Michigan. We'll find out.''

But James Guth, professor of political science at Furman University in Greenville, said that the ''overwhelming'' support by religious conservatives was only part of the story of Bush's victory.

''What was interesting was how well Bush did in lots of categories, among women, young people, groups that are usually weak categories for Republicans,'' Guth said by telephone. ''That is another ray of light on a pretty good night for Bush.''

Voting was marred early in the day by reports that some polls in some neighborhoods in the Greenville area were not open. Weaver vowed to ''raise hell''' with a formal complaint about the poll closings, a few of which affected primarily black neighborhoods.

McCain called for a ''complete investigation'' of the poll closings, but he stopped short of saying he would challenge the primary's results.

''I think it is clear that the court had already settled it,'' the Arizona senator said. ''It's very disappointing. In America, we should allow every person an equal opportunity to vote.''

Bush said he did not know about the polling stations that were shut down by the South Carolina Republican Party yesterday. Of McCain's complaints that the closings might affect the outcome, Bush said, ''If he's got a problem, call up the chairman of the Republican Party.''

Bush and McCain barely had time to digest the outcome of the race before moving early this morning to Michigan, where polls taken just before the South Carolina vote showed the race to be a statistical tie. Then the campaign will unfold rapidly, with primaries in Virginia and Washington on Feb. 29 and a crucial cluster of states March 7, including New York, California, and Massachusetts. McCain has said he would participate at least through those contests.

Just as Bush retooled his strategy after losing New Hampshire, McCain already is changing his game plan after the South Carolina loss. He had hoped to compete in both Virginia and Washington, but McCain aides said Virginia is too similar to South Carolina in its conservative makeup. They plan to shift advertising dollars to the more moderate state of Washington.

The key to McCain's success has been his ability to attract non-Republicans, but that effort fell short in South Carolina, a state heavily populated with veterans. McCain said several weeks ago South Carolina was a ''must win.'' But more recently, McCain has said South Carolina only has to be close and perceived as a win, enabling him to raise money and continue the march to Super Tuesday. Yesterday's outcome left both those goals uncertain.

Bush's day unfolded in contrast with his New Hampshire experience. Senior adviser Karl Rove, who had delivered the bad news about the New Hampshire exit polls, arrived with good news from the first wave of exit polls just after 1:30 p.m. Bush later went for a five-mile run and took a nap.

By late afternoon, Bush aides were confident the early indicators had proved true and jubilantly heralded the numbers as evidence the retooled strategy had worked.

Reporters Anne E. Kornblut, traveling with Bush, and Mary Leonard, traveling with McCain, contributed to this report.