ERRIMACK, N.H. - Wendy Greenland is the kind of vital voter that George W. Bush calls a ''tire kicker.'' She has heard four presidential candidates in person, and she stopped at a Bush rally here last week to give the Texas governor a last chance to win her over.
But if Greenland was hoping for a new reason to back Bush, she did not hear it. Bush's speech was almost word-for-word identical to what he has said here for nearly a year. And his campaign refuses to acknowledge any reason to change its strategy, even though Senator John McCain is running ahead of him in polls here.
''It was just a lot of canned answers,'' Greenland said. She said she will vote for McCain. To be sure, others in the audience were impressed. Sally Zink of Bedford, for example, said Bush's comments were reassuring. ''I really liked his message of hope and optimism,'' she said.
But the Bush campaign is likely to rise or fall in the first primary state on how the candidate connects with tire kickers such as Greenland. US Representative Charles Bass of New Hampshire, who accompanied Bush, warned the governor as long ago as last May that the state's undecided voters could move against him in the last two weeks before the Feb. 1 vote.
Now, Bass said after watching Bush's performance, he is more convinced than ever that the race will be a blowout. Bass is just not sure whether Bush or McCain will be the victor.
''I don't think it will be close,'' said Bass, a knowledgeable observer of state politics. ''It will either break one way or the other. It could go either way.''
It is unusual for such a high-ranking elected official to acknowledge that his candidate could lose by a large margin. But to Bass, it is a simple matter of understanding New Hampshire politics. In the past, whoever wins the Iowa Republican caucuses usually is defeated here. In the most telling example, Bush's father, George Bush, won the Iowa caucuses in 1980 but then lost here to Ronald Reagan. George W. Bush, who well remembers his father's defeat here 20 years ago, is trying not to repeat history.
But for longtime Republican observers, the trend is alarming. Bush is expected easily to win tomorrow's caucuses in Iowa, where McCain is not competing, but New Hampshire may be poised to repeat its history and go for the insurgent, McCain.
Another top Bush adviser, Thomas D. Rath, has repeatedly warned Bush about the way New Hampshire voters tend to move quickly in the final days. Rath said he would not be surprised if two-thirds of the voters change their minds or decide in the few days before casting ballots.
But even as he has dropped in the poll standings here, Bush has firmly resisted any temptation to change his style, his substance, or his strategy. Bush is convinced he will win the nomination regardless of what happens in New Hampshire, so he doesn't want to make a desperation move that would look bad elsewhere.
''A campaign is, by the way, to say the same thing at the beginning of the campaign as at the end of the campaign, so people are clear about my positions,'' Bush said. ''I'm not going to change my tax cut plan. It is going to be the same thing I say today as I will say next October, so should I win, there will be no doubt in anybody's mind that this has been endorsed by the American people.''
While all candidates repeat the same phrases, Bush's speeches are notable for being practically verbatim from early last year. He jokes that he ''did a fabulous job of picking parents'' and that his wife, Laura, has ''been a fabulous first lady of Texas'' and that one of his daughters told him, ''You're not as cool as you think you are.''
Even some of the most tortured avenues of speech remain. Bush still says, ''I've got a plan to keep prosperity alive. It starts with tort reform.'' The line gets the same quizzical looks as it did a year ago.
Bush said he long ago decided to campaign on only a few big issues. ''It is important not to campaign on all kind of issues,'' Bush told a crowd of mostly students at Merrimack High School. He recalled that when he was elected governor of Texas, reporters asked when he would talk about more than the four major issues he addressed in the campaign. Bush said he never gave in to the questioners.
But the danger for Bush is that the major focus of his campaign, spending the budget surplus on tax cuts, may not be resonating with voters. Polls show that the majority of Republicans prefer smaller tax cuts and using the surplus to shore up Social Security, similar to a proposal made by McCain. The result is that Bush's campaign here has been played lately on McCain's turf, even though the Arizona senator said little about his tax plans until a few weeks ago.
Anyone listening to McCain will often hear him say that his plan is more ''prudent'' than Bush's. This reference alludes to Bush's father, who was so concerned about carefully dealing with the budget and other matters that one of his best-known phrases was ''wouldn't be prudent.'' McCain's message is that George W. Bush's plan wouldn't be prudent.
Karen Hughes, Bush's spokeswoman, said it is important for the governor to stay ''on message'' every day.
In an effort to court the tire kickers, the Bush campaign recently began to target mailings to such groups as professional women, veterans, retirees, and younger voters. The campaign also arranged for Bush's brother, Florida Governor Jeb Bush, to write a letter to thousands of New Hampshirites who head to the Sunshine State at this time of year.
''You may know my older brother, George W. Bush,'' Jeb Bush wrote, urging residents to apply for an absentee ballot ''if your plans call for a winter getaway. ... The election will be close.''
The tire kickers Bush is courting tend to be Independents, who make up 37 percent of the electorate in this state. The problem for Bush is they not only kick the tires, but also they change them frequently.
Even Sally Zink, the Bedford woman who ''really liked'' Bush's speech, wouldn't commit herself.
