FLINT, Mich.
IT'S AT THE POINT where they're on the same street.
Up Miller Road the other day toward the state highway, a small group of National Rifle Association members were doing a literature drop door to door on behalf of George W. Bush.
Back toward downtown, a collection of United Autoworkers volunteers were doing the same for Al Gore. Two groups, diametrically different ideas, very different presidential candidates (sorry, Ralph Nader), same precinct.
Face it, in this gradually reviving car town and in this rarely compelling election, the Flint yard signs are almost all for Minore, Branch, Belzer, and Crawford, not Bush, Gore, Buchanan, or Nader. The still-tight race for the White House in the battleground states is starting to ape the down-ballot fights for city council and district judge.
They're even starting to sound alike. On the air here, the Republicans have started using Lee Iacocca to slam Gore, citing his decade-old tome ''Earth in the Balance'' for threatening the American way of life - to wit, wasting money on gas in gas-guzzling cars. Localizing the ad campaign is something Gore has been doing around the country, and it didn't take the Democrats long to put an auto worker on the air reminding people that the car industry here lost 40,000 jobs when Bush's dad was president and has never been healthier than lately.
All over, it sounds and looks as if Bush and Gore were running for governor or even city council. Or, as a senior Gore campaign official put it, the election seems to be coming down to 14 to 21 (depending on the day) New Hampshire primaries.
You want a trend - fine, but it isn't much. After their third debate, it felt like Bush had a chance, having passed the minimal hurdle of acceptability, to put Gore away. But the guy has a bad habit of coasting, and in his vapid momentum campaigning he blew his moment to close the sale.
Bush also was desultory in responding to Gore's sharp focus on the hole in Bush's plan to finance the partial privatization of Social Security. And he got nailed by the Rand Corp. for committing what used to be a Gore sin: ''exaggeration'' - in this important case, of his education record.
But Gore, who keeps coming back, has still not recaptured the I'm-on-your-side spirit of September. He has tied the race in knots but not transformed it.
The battle for Michigan's 18 electoral votes is Exhibit A. A week ago the Bushies were talking lead and momentum; not now. Mr. Pollster here, Ed Sarpolis, had it 44 percent Gore, 42 Bush, and 3 for what's-his-name as of Oct. 25. Gore's status is also probably helped marginally by a late surge for the underdog Democratic Senate candidate here, Debbie Stabenow, who is scaring incumbent Spencer Abraham.
As revealing is data Sarpolis has about heavily suburban Oakland County, south of here and closer to Detroit. Bush was up in the Republican stronghold by 9 points, but his share remained below what Sarpolis says a GOP candidate normally gets while winning the state.
The campaign, in short, is coming down to daily campaigning, a blizzard of TV and radio ads, and a massive ground game by both sides. The effort to change the equation is intense.
On my way out of Pittsburgh the other day, a top official in the Bush campaign's western Pennsylvania effort half-seriously passed on his latest great idea:
''We need a fourth debate,'' he said, ''preferably one where Al Gore sighs, rolls his eyes, sneers, and plays know-it-all for the full 90 minutes.''
His reasoning was explained to me, semi-telepathically, a few days before that in Lakeland, Fla., in a chat with one of the vice president's better-known congressional supporters.
Time, she said, has been Gore's ally. With time, memories of which personality trait many voters discovered they didn't like during the debates earlier this month fade. Without the constant reminders that three debates with George W. Bush in 14 days provided, more fundamental factors are taking hold. Said the congresswoman, ''Compared to fading memories of off-putting personality traits on TV, things that actually affect people's lives are going to come back to the fore; there's really no other explanation.''
Her point was not that Gore is headed toward victory in Florida any more than he is in my other battleground stops this past week in the North. Her point was that Gore has managed to dodge another bullet, once again neck and neck in a state the Texas governor can't afford to lose, and by private, bipartisan consensus is ever so narrowly ahead here and in Pennsylvania, states Gore can't afford to lose.
For Bush, it's still personal; for Gore, it's still business. The country is not thrilled, but it's really wrestling with this one.
Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address is t-oliphant@globe.com.
