Surging McCain may yet suffer the media's slings and arrows

By Robert A. Jordan, Globe Columnist, 2/13/2000

f ever a presidential hopeful were to get a free ride from the media, that candidate may be John McCain. But if there is also such a thing as the media hitching a ride with a candidate, this year's group may well qualify.

And it's not just members of the media who have cast their fate with the Republican senator from Arizona. Perhaps not since Ronald Reagan made his 1980 bid for the presidency has a candidate received so much support from so many different groups. McCain has won the backing of the young and the elderly; antiwar activists and staunch veterans; Democrats, independents and Republicans; and anti-establishment voters as well as those squarely in the mainstream.

Since his big upset victory in the Feb. 1 New Hampshire presidential primary over Texas Governor George W. Bush, who had been the all-but- anointed GOP nominee, McCain has been riding the crest of a huge political wave - one that could swamp Bush's bid for the White House.

Yet, despite winning in New Hampshire, coming in second in Delaware without even campaigning, and pulling even with Bush in the polls in South Carolina, McCain knows that it is still a long way to the Republican convention and the nomination.

The positive coverage is due partly to McCain's personable, candid approach to the electorate. It is due, too, to Bush's inability to connect with Republican and independent voters, many of whom have come to think of him as less than presidential, given his often rambling performance in debates and interviews.

But Bush's attacks on McCain are having an effect in South Carolina, where McCain has now fallen behind in the polls with the election looming Saturday. If McCain loses there, his strategy, and his viability, would be in question. He could come under the same media scrutiny that Bush endured before and has since his New Hampshire loss.

A key difference, of course, is that McCain is so much more appealing to voters than his Texas rival. Many registered Democrats have - or have said they will - cross party lines, for example, to vote for him in the March 7 Massachusetts primary. But if McCain falters in South Carolina, it costs him precious momentum. It doesn't take much to stumble and fall behind.

As an ex-POW, McCain is a genuine war hero to much of the electorate; some voters believe that his ability to survive a prisoner of war camp and become a successful senator is almost reason enough to vote him into the White House. And his popular fight for campaign finance reform is resonating with voters. But that issue could end up hurting him as much as it is currently helping.

As Bush has shown, McCain is vulnerable to contradictions on that issue largely because he is receiving millions of dollars from wealthy contributors who personify the need for the change in the contribution rules. When Bush began attacking McCain on this issue, McCain's ''negatives'' started going up, and Bush began to pull ahead.

Moreover, if Bush's more aggressive attacks appear to be working, he can also remind voters how close McCain was to the savings and loan scandal. When people talked about the ''Keating Five,'' they were referring to the five US senators who associated with the soiled banker, McCain being one of the five who basically ended up with congressional slaps on the wrist.

Some pundits believe that the Gulf War took the focus off the scandal, and thus off McCain's involvement. Television networks called on him for commentary on the military operations in the gulf, which enhanced his image and reminded people of his war record.

Today, the network cameras on McCain may not be as friendly, especially if his campaign starts a downward spiral after South Carolina.

Ironically, McCain could also find himself between a rock and a hard place on some issues. The Bush camp, for example, has been suggesting to voters that McCain, while accusing Bush of being more ''like Clinton,'' is actually more of a Democrat himself. That, of course, is aimed at preventing conservative Republicans from moving to McCain.

Democrats argue that McCain's voting record in Congress has shown him to be strongly anti-labor, and allied with conservative Republicans on key issues. So McCain may be projecting a confusing image that both Democrats and conservative Republicans are likely to exploit.

One reason Reagan's charisma was so successful - and McCain's may not be - is that the party establishment, especially the wealthy, wanted Reagan. Today, they want Bush. And McCain knows he is going to need all the money he can get to outdo Bush, even if he wins South Carolina.

In essence, McCain is working hard to be whatever he needs to be to win the nomination. But as he passes through South Carolina and other primaries coming up, voters will finally know who he is, and where he stands.

Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.