enator John McCain's surge among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire appears to have stalled, amid evidence that his reformist image has been harmed by disclosures that he interceded with federal regulators on behalf of a major campaign donor, according to a new Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll.
The survey, which sampled opinion among both Republicans and Democrats, found that candidates in both races are deadlocked barely three weeks before the primary.
Moreover, the polling indicates volatility in both; 40 percent of likely GOP voters and a third of Democratic primary voters who expressed a preference said they are not yet sure of their choice.
In the Republican contest, the survey found that two major positions the six GOP candidates have embraced have little resonance with voters: Although all the candidates say they oppose abortion, and some highlight that position, a plurality, 43 percent, of likely GOP voters say they support a right to an abortion.
The same sentiment seemed to hold true on taxes: A plurality of Republican primary voters - and an overwhelming majority of Democratic primary voters - would prefer to use the surplus for programs such as health and education rather than to use most of the funds to cut taxes.
The separate polls, each of 400 likely voters, were taken Wednesday through Friday for the Democratic contest, and Thursday and Friday for the GOP primary. For each sample, the interviewing was done after the debates were held last week in Durham, N.H.
The polling was done for the Globe and WBZ-TV by KRC Communications Research. The margin of error is plus or minus five percentage points.
Both contests are deadlocked, although the views of voters on a number of issues might be worrisome for McCain and Bradley.
In the Democratic contest, 44 percent voiced a preference for each candidate, with 11 percent undecided. A month ago, in a poll by KRC, it was similarly locked up, at 43 percent apiece.
Among the GOP primary voters, 35 percent said they plan to vote for McCain, while 32 percent favored George W. Bush, the Texas governor. Running a distant third, with 14 percent, was publisher Steve Forbes. Among the remaining candidates, Alan Keyes, the former diplomat, had 5 percent, Gary Bauer had 2 percent and Senator Orrin G. Hatch of Utah had 1 percent. When KRC polled GOP primary voters on Dec. 15 and 16, the numbers were almost the same: 37 percent for McCain, 33 percent for Bush and 13 percent for Forbes.
That poll showed strong gains for McCain, and slippage for Bush. In November, Bush led McCain by 45 percent to 31 percent.
For the moment, though, the poll suggests that McCain's gain in popularity since November has leveled off. Meanwhile, voter doubts seemed to have eased about whether Bush is qualified to be president. And Bush was viewed as the strongest nominee his party could field in November.
When the GOP voters were asked whether McCain and Bush have the experience and judgment necessary to be president, the two front-running Republicans scored evenly. McCain had a slight edge, 35 percent to 30 percent, when voters were asked which of the two has the leadership qualities they would most want to see in their president.
Elsewhere in the poll, doubts about McCain seemed to have increased. And the change appeared to have been related to the finding last week that McCain, whose campaign against powerful special interests has resonated in New Hampshire, had interceded with the Federal Communications Commission on behalf of business interests that have made contributions to his campaigns.
Among those polled, 65 percent said they were aware of the controversy. And among them, 17 percent said the disclosure had made them less likely to vote for McCain.
Last month, 76 percent of likely voters expressed a favorable view of McCain, and just 10 percent viewed him unfavorably. Last week, those figures were at 65 percent and 15 percent. Bush's favorability/unfavorability numbers have remained steady, at 64 percent to 20 percent.
Elsewhere in the sampling, Bush's underlying numbers have improved. Last month, when GOP primary voters were asked which of the two men would make the better standard bearer against the eventual Democratic nominee, Bush was the choice, 49 percent to 27 percent. Last week that figure was 56 percent to 22 percent.
In the GOP poll, 57 percent said they were sure of their choice, while 40 percent said it was too early. Among Bush supporters, 67 percent said they were certain to stay with their candidate; 57 percent of McCain supporters said the same.
In the Democratic survey, 66 percent said they are sure of their preference, while 32 percent said it is too early to say for certain that they will stay with their preference. Neither candidate has an advantage on that question.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, 85 percent said they are very concerned about the cost of health care. And with HMOs in New England suffering catastrophic losses, 77 percent said they were very concerned about the availability of health care.
Yet even though Bradley has offered the more comprehensive plan to cover those with no insurance or little coverage, Gore's attacks on the details of Bradley's plan seemed to have taken a toll: Asked which would do the better job of making affordable health care available to all Americans, the voters chose Gore, by 39 percent to 32 percent. Respondents also gave Gore an advantage when asked who had the background to be president.
And when it comes to which of the two would be the stronger general election candidate, Democrats and Independents who plan to vote in the Democratic primary gave Gore a substantial edge, by 55 percent to 28 percent.
The polling also found that the debates last week had little impact. Nor, it seemed, did the week's endorsements. Elizabeth Dole, who abandoned the GOP race for want to money, endorsed Bush. For the the vast majority of Republican voters, the endorsement had no effect.
On the other side, Senator Edward M. Kennedy's endorsement of Gore had no impact on 75 percent of voters, although 14 percent said Kennedy's backing of Gore had made it more likely that they would back the vice president; 7 percent said Kennedy's blessing had made them less likely to vote for Gore.
