George W. Bush speaks to reporters before a meeting with Texas officials at the governor's office in Austin Tuesday. (AFP photo)

Bush surges toward GOP's prize

Texan's strength may prompt rival to bow out

By Michael Kranish and Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 3/8/2000

eorge W. Bush, who began his presidential odyssey as the sure-fire Republican front-runner only to suffer a series of damaging defeats, took a giant leap toward securing the nomination last night by winning key primaries against his insurgent rival, Senator John McCain.

Bush won California, as well as the vital state of New York, which McCain had targeted heavily during the last week. Those races could determine whether McCain remains in the race. Elsewhere, McCain had hoped for a surprise victory in Ohio or Missouri, but Bush won both states. Bush also easily took Georgia and Maryland.

McCain, whose campaign took off after a huge victory in New Hampshire five weeks ago, had his strongest showing yesterday in New England, winning Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. But Bush won Maine, where his family has a summer home in Kennebunkport.

''Tonight, we have good news from sea to shining sea,'' Bush said in remarks prepared for delivery last night. ''We were challenged - and we met the challenge. We were tested - and we were equal to the test. We promised a national campaign. And tonight, we have a national victory. Republicans and conservatives across America have said they want me to lead the Republican Party to victory come November, and I am ready and eager to do so.''

Bush promptly sought to shift his focus away from the nomination fight, trying to mend his relationship with McCain and focusing on the probable Democratic nominee, Vice President Al Gore.

''Al Gore is celebrating victory as well,'' Bush said. ''I congratulate him and look forward to the contest. He is the candidate of the status quo in Washington, D.C., and he has a tough case to make in the general election. I will stand on principle, and I will bring honor to this process and to the office I seek.''

The scope of Bush's victories prompted a tense round of reassessment last night in the McCain camp. Earlier in the night, McCain had sounded hopeful, saying, ''Clearly our message of reform has had a powerful impact.''

''It is clear we have done very well on the East Coast and I am deeply grateful for the strong support our campaign is receiving throughout the states of New England and the Northeast,'' McCain said in a statement from his hotel in Beverly Hills, Calif.

Bush, the son of the former president, scored his biggest victory in California, winning all 162 delegates, while McCain hoped for at least a moral victory by winning California's popular vote that allows Democrats and independents to vote.

But McCain, who relied on independent and Democrats to score some early victories, remained notably weak among Republicans. Moreover, the exit polls showed that McCain's attack on Christian Coalition leader Pat Robertson as an ''agent of intolerance'' may have backfired. Voters who identified themselves as religious conservatives overwhelmingly supported Bush, while McCain did not get a significant enough boost among those who said they were not religious conservatives.

McCain did win some support among Catholics in the wake of his attack on Bush for speaking at Bob Jones University, whose leaders have said Catholicism is a ''cult.'' But it was not enough in many states for McCain to beat Bush.

Even in Massachusetts, which McCain won easily with votes from independents, he narrowly trailed Bush among Republicans, according to exit polls.

''It is a case of the Bush campaign employing a long-term strategy, bringing massive amounts of resources and applying them in a methodical manner, which, over time, overwhelmed the McCain hit-and-run campaign,'' said Republican strategist Rich Galen. ''It's like a football team with a very good ground game. Sooner or later they're going to grind you down and put the ball in the end zone.''

McCain's strength was evident among first-time voters, who made up 15 percent of the electorate. He won that group by a wide margin, according to a cross-sampling of yesterday's exit polls.

McCain's weakness, however, was evident in Ohio, which the senator's aides said until recently could be the site of a McCain upset. The McCain campaign hoped the open primary in Ohio would be similar to Michigan, which McCain won two weeks ago with the support of independents and Democrats. But Ohio, unlike Michigan, had a concurrent Democratic primary, so most Democrats didn't vote in the GOP contest.

While more than half of those voting in Michigan were not Republican, 70 percent of those voting in yesterday's GOP primary in Ohio were Republicans. Only 7 percent were Democrats. As a result, Bush used his strength among Republicans to gain a decisive victory over McCain.

McCain's attack on the religious right also hurt McCain in Ohio. Twenty-three percent of Ohio voters called themselves religious conservatives, with three-quarters of them backing Bush, according to the exit polls.

Yesterday, Bush met with aides at the Governor's Mansion in Texas, while McCain made a final round of calls to radio shows. The senator spent much of the day in his suite at the Beverly Hilton hotel, surrounded by family, friends, and aides who had flown in from around the country to be with him.

''I'm glad to have these primaries,'' he quipped on one radio show. ''It gives me a chance to see my kids.''

McCain continued to hammer away at Bush because of advertisements paid for by two Texas friends of the governor, one of them a campaign fund-raiser. McCain called the commercials, which criticized his record on the environment, ''a violation of every principle I've been voting for in campaign finance reform.''

McCain defended his appeal to Democrats and independents, who so far have been the lifeblood of his campaign. He said he believes those who voted for him in the primaries would stay loyal to him if he became the nominee. Any other scenario would be ''too cynical a view of Americans,'' he said.

''A majority of Americans are looking for something they haven't had in a while,'' he said. ''I can't tell you how proud I am to have sparked this kind of prairie fire out there that's getting people involved. Especially our rallies are so full of young people.''

Though he lagged in polls in most states in recent days, McCain was optimistic yesterday morning.

''We're still in a very competitive position,'' he told his radio interviewer. ''I think we're going to win New York. All the models were knocked into a cocked hat because of the huge turnout. The one thing we've done in this campaign is energize voters.''

Regardless of the results in the Super Tuesday primaries, McCain and his aides said the senator intends to compete in Friday's primaries in Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. After resting today at his home in Sedona, Ariz., McCain plans to campaign tomorrow in Colorado, where he trails Bush in the polls. McCain media strategist Mike Murphy said the campaign bought $200,000 in advertising in Colorado.

Bush, who arrived in Austin, Texas, at 2 a.m., went for a jog early yesterday and told reporters that he would try to make amends with McCain.

''Primaries can be tough because we are arguing amongst a political family,'' Bush said. ''But there's going to be ample time to heal any wounds, and I'm confident we can heal any wounds that may exist between us.''

Bush said he was looking ahead to a general election contest, mocking Vice President Al Gore, the likely Democratic nominee, as a candidate who ''changes his message, changes his headquarters, changes his suits.''

Following a campaign that has lasted nearly a year, the Super Tuesday results seemed likely to signal the end of the seesaw fight for the Republican nomination. The battle began with six candidates, although several well-known figures such as former Vice President Dan Quayle and former Red Cross president Elizabeth Dole and former education secretary Lamar Alexander dropped out before the first primary. Then Steve Forbes dropped out after coming in third in the Delaware contest, leaving only Bush, McCain, and Alan Keyes, who trailed far behind in every state.

But from the start of the primary season, it was clearly a battle between Bush, the establishment favorite, and McCain, the maverick.

McCain, with far less money, skipped the Iowa caucuses, focused on campaign finance and ''straight talk,'' and catapulted to national attention with a stunning 19-point victory in New Hampshire. Bush suddenly was facing questions about his political will, his savvy, his ability to perform as the nominee.

But almost as quickly as McCain's beaming face appeared on the cover of national news magazines, the pendulum swung back in South Carolina.

Bush returned the thumping he had received in New Hampshire with a solid 11-point victory in South Carolina, built largely on support from the Christian conservatives he focused his attention on there. McCain, in turn, capitalized on that tactic by Bush in the next state. Targeting Bush's visit to Bob Jones University, a fundamentalist South Carolina school whose founder labeled Catholicism a ''cult,'' McCain won in Michigan and Arizona on Feb. 22.

But McCain's victory in Michigan also underscored his weakness, as he lost among Republicans even as he ran well with independents and Democrats. Democrats were not allowed to vote in many Republican primaries yesterday.

McCain's problem became evident a week ago in Washington, a moderate state that McCain hoped to win, but he wound up losing the Republican vote to Bush.

Globe Staff writer Yvonne Abraham, traveling with McCain, contributed to this report. Kornblut is traveling with Bush.