RICHARD N. BOND

The five tests of Bush's candidacy

By Richard N. Bond, June 6, 1999

Richard N. Bond is former chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Ali supposedly answered, "You must be pretty good. There isn't a mark on you."

Sounds a lot like conventional political wisdom when it comes to presidential front-runner George W. Bush. The Texas governor has left the primary pack behind and is running well ahead of Vice President Gore in most polls. So far, his "front porch" strategy seems to be working. The nomination appears to be his to lose. And, despite a couple of recent stumbles, there's still not a mark on him.

But as front-runner, he cannot avoid the ring forever nor can he escape what I see as five inevitable tests that will likely determine whether he makes it from the front porch in Austin to the portico on the south lawn.

Test No. 1 -- his performance as candidate: As front-runner, Bush must meet almost impossible expectations. If there is any doubt, read the poor reviews of his performance before a gathering of Republicans in Indianapolis last year, his only foray into presidential politics. To survive the hyper-criticism of front-runner status, Bush must control the dynamics of the primary campaign.

George Bush, not Gary Bauer, must dominate the domestic policy debate, or the American public's perception of creeping extremism in the party could be fatal to his candidacy. Similarly, Bush, not Senator John McCain, must set the parameters of the foreign policy discussion. Until Kosovo, Bush's Yellow Rose Garden strategy had been working beautifully, but his initial ambiguity and McCain's outspokenness gave the struggling McCain campaign new life.

Test No. 2 -- his personal life: Rumors about Bush's past have been swirling around for months. Are we likely to see embarrassing "bimbo eruptions"? Are there darker problems from Bush's younger days that could spell real trouble?

Bush has said that his youthful indiscretions are not relevant today. Maybe. Granted, over the past six years, the American people have shown an incredible tolerance for scandal; but every election cycle has its own personality. This time, voters may want the comfort of a scandal-free "cardigan" candidacy rather than another "flak jacket" election. The seriousness of these rumors and Bush's ability to finesse their impact will be a major factor in his candidacy.

Test No. 3 -- the ability to stumble and recover: Every front-runner stumbles, and Bush will be no different. Ronald Reagan lost Iowa in 1980, but went on to win in New Hampshire three weeks later. In 1996, Dole had a miserable showing, losing four of the first five contests, but went on to win the nomination. This year, Al Gore has had a very bad spring.

The dynamics of the primary season forge the campaign steel of the general election. Bush's ability to dust himself off from a fall and regain his momentum will be critical.

Test No. 4 -- the convention and vice presidential choice: Thanks to ideological platform fights and divisive rhetoric spewed by disgruntled candidates, Republican conventions in recent years have left Americans frightened, confused, and disgusted. The convention offers a fresh opportunity for Bush to present himself as a centrist conservative who shares their hopes and converns.

His vice presidential selection will be crucial to that public persona. No doubt, there will be a tremendous amount of pressure on Bush to choose a running mate who passes the far right's narrow ideological litmus tests. If Bush is going to run as a compassionate conservative, however, he must pick someone whom mainstream America will enthusiasticallly accept.

Test No. 5 -- the general election strategy: The 2000 election will be a watershed year in American politics for many reasons, not the least of which will be its complexity. The Republican and Democratic candidates may again be forced to share the debate stage and the ballot with a reform party candidate, this time armed with $20 million in federal funds, enough to bankroll a respectable effort.

Al Gore is no Bill Clinton, but he is an ambitious, savvy political animal surrounded by a team of tough professionals who know how to win elections.

Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura, an election surprise last year, could be a wild card in next year's game of presidential poker.

Strategically, to win, Governor Bush should take a page from the Clinton playbook. Grab the political agenda early and never let go.

Five tests -- five chances to fail or five opportunities to win for Bush. I don't know if he will make the grade, but I do know he won't end this campaign as he began: without a mark on him.