he Republican Party has never seen anything like it.
Hurricane George is flattening all that stands in its way, eroding not only the beach heads tentatively held by Republican rivals but dominating the Democrats' two-man field as well.
The tidal surge of early New Hampshire polling puts Bush atop Mount Washington and leaves the others sloshing around the lower elevations. Hurricane George dictates the numbers on the Democratic side as well, where New Hampshire Democrats have elevated diffident insurgent Bill Bradley to within a whisker of matching Vice President Al Gore.
Wanting to be with what looks like a winner is the simplest explanation of a complex phenomenon. Bush keeps looking more like one as Gore's sheen of invincibility rusts before our eyes. The bulk of the GOP's constituencies at the national level are falling over one another to declare why Bush is acceptable to them. Five months out from New Hampshire's primary, 14 months away from the election, the news media have crowned Bush as all but invincible.
Bradley, running only 4 points back of Gore in the Globe-WBZ poll and 5 points back in the CNN-WMUR canvass, has struck gold with white suburban males, of which New Hampshire has plenty. The Gore folk glumly point out that Gore leads Bradley 4-1 among black males nationally. But there are few black males in New Hampshire.
Similarly, the big AFL-CIO endorsement that is expected soon by Gore will help in the later, larger industrial state primaries, but does little for him in New Hampshire. And Big Al just got dissed by Friends of the Earth, which endorsed Bradley, putting a dent in the in the Tree-Huggers-for-Al chariot.
But before we nail the plywood over Gore's New Hampshire HQ, and evacuate the Granite State to look for higher ground for Gore in subsequent primaries, let's take a longer-range look at his prospects. The satellite photo is a lot friendlier to Gore, and a bit more ominous for Bush.
Of likely voters in New Hampshire's Democratic primary, only 19 percent of Democrats have a negative view of Gore. That unfavorable figure pops up to 32 percent among independents, who can vote in one or the other of the party primaries. But that suggests that Gore's problem is not Gore per se but the Clinton fatigue factor and some gamy aroma hanging around from Gore's fund-raising exploits.
Pat Buchanan's flirtation with the third-party ploy helps Bush in the short run but hurts the GOP in the end. A Buchanan-Ross Perot cabal would drain more votes from the GOP than from the Democrats, perhaps tipping key electoral votes.
Bradley has to win somewhere, early, to justify his numbers and sustain his fund-raising. ''Somewhere'' is now New Hampshire. Gore can survive an opening-night loss there; Bradley cannot.
The landscape changes for Bush as well as Gore. The Manchester Union Leader is cozying up to Steve Forbes. The paper's blowtorch editorials helped Pat Buchanan win last time. But Pat is heading for the exit to go third party. That makes the free-spending Forbes leader of the conservative pack chasing Bush. With Buchanan and Senator Bob Smith fleeing the GOP, that could make billionaire Forbes a serious challenger - enticing independents to vote in the GOP contest, which helps Gore.
The Democrats' delegate selection formulas favor Gore. So-called `superdelegates,' the clout of unions, and all the mayors and governors who have supped at the White House trough for seven years will stick with Gore or risk losing White House access for Year 8.
It is hard to construct a scenario whereby Bradley wins the nomination short of a Gore meltdown, a failure of nerve, or a disastrous debate. Gore has never lost a big-time debate. He may be a stiff on the stump, but he's a killer in the clinches and TV closeups. Bush has nowhere near the debate experience Gore has mastered. Bradley is a lot better than Bush, off his Senate training, but where does Bradley have time to catch Gore, no matter who wins N.H.?
The front-loaded primary schedule, with big states crowding up close to New Hampshire's wake, means that both races will likely be over by St. Patrick's Day. This gives huge advantages to Bush and Gore. And Gore's incumbency is a priceless factor.
The vice president's poll lead ''remains shaky ... viewed in his party as dependable but not exciting ... (he) faces a grueling endurance contest as he seeks to hold off growing threats ... unable to garner support from (the) rank and file ... as he becomes more outspoken, he runs the risk of stumbling into other problems.''
All these quotes are from The New York Times - from 12 years ago - and they refer to then Vice President Bush, like Gore today, a veep hampered by the image of being a coat-holding stick figure, a pale imitation of the charismatic president who towered over him. Bradley is going gangbusters in New Hampshire, but gangbusters there may not be enough. A not unrealistic ticket? Gore-Bradley. Just a thought.
David Nyhan is a Globe columnist.
