DERRY, N.H.
No more lockboxes, no more fuzzy math. No more ''I'm asking for the vote'' from George W. Bush, no more ''Are you with me?'' from Al Gore.
It's our turn now, or at least the half of us that bothers to take eligible citizenry seriously enough to vote. And that means the big question tonight for a great many people is, ''Should I stay up?'' as much as it is ''Who won?''
The answer for the nonjunkie majority that has households to run and jobs to get to tomorrow is - of course not. The odds of a clear result on the presidency and the Congress, or even a definitive trend, before midnight are 50-50 at best. The same odds hold for even being able to read comprehensive national returns in very many of tomorrow's papers.
There's no sane reason to go past the late local news, and if this really turns into a nail-biter, all you'll miss on the tube is endless babble disguising a simple truth - we don't know - to fill dead air.
But no matter how it goes, and whether you want to stay up or turn in, there are ways to sense well before midnight, well before the trickle of early returns becomes a flood, what the overall picture is likely to be.
New Hampshire is a perfect example. So is Florida. So is Kentucky. With early poll closings, the key is to concentrate on the trickle. These three states, with Kentucky closing at 6 p.m. Eastern and the other two an hour later, are classics.
Because many Democrats there are pro-tobacco, pro-coal mining, and love their guns, Bush should win Kentucky quickly. The key is the margin, and the standard is right around 10 percentage points, which networks will project from exit polls when they call the race there.
But New Hampshire and Florida are genuine battlegrounds, the first two of at least 15 to check in. If Florida stays on the board through the evening, we have a national nail-biter. Bush needs it or his Electoral College math gets complicated; Gore needs to keep any loss below 5 points. New Hampshire is interesting because it's close, with a big independent vote that was once kind to John McCain and Bill Bradley. Again, if there's an early call and if somebody wins it by 5 points or more, that's a clue.
The early-evening numbers from Florida and Kentucky will also give the first hints about the tussle for control of the US House and Senate. In the latter, the GOP should be able to defend two embattled incumbents - Anne Northrup from Louisville and Ernie Fletcher to the west. The best way to follow this, other than online, is via the ''crawls'' that run under the pictures on CNN; if either of these two is not declared quickly, the Democrats are showing strength.
In Florida, you can also get an early clue from the fate of veteran GOP Representative Clay Shaw in the fight of his career along the Gold Coast; this is one a nationally successful Democratic effort needs. And the state will also give a quick clue on GOP efforts to win Democratic seats in the east via the results in their attempt to unseat Black Caucus stalwart Corinne Brown up in Jacksonville.
Remember, at least eight teetering GOP seats are in the Mountain and Pacific time zones; if the Democrats are even or better before midnight in the net change category, you might start saying Speaker Gephardt.
And finally, Florida will be the first state with a big Senate race to report. The Democrats will be delivering if, and only if, former Representative Bill Nelson can beat impeachment manager Bill McCollum, as the late polls suggested.
Ralph Nader has figured in all the preelection chatter as a potential spoiler for Bush. The trick tonight will be gauging his impact early. The national exit polls won't help, because what will count is his vote in closely contested states.
My nominations for something to focus on early are Maine (8 p.m.) and Wisconsin (9 p.m). The basic rule tonight is that in any battleground state, Nader is doing damage to Gore at 5 percent of the vote and is poison above 7. The outcome of a nail-biter could hinge on how well he does in Oregon and Washington, but these two will provide the early clues.
You don't need to know the final results there. Just listen or follow online as the two states' vote totals grow and follow the Nader share.
Two other states that check in as the flood of returns begins (Delaware at 8 and Missouri at 9) are also worthy of places on a short tip sheet. Each was too close to call going in; each is also a national metaphor. Delaware has been with the winner since it chose Dewey over Truman in '48, and Missouri has done so for a hundred years save only its odd decision not to like Ike for reelection over Stevenson in '56.
That leaves the exit polls. The networks are good about holding out on the bottom line until the real polls close. But around the supper hour, it's worth jotting down the adjectives and adverbs they use about their demographics, like ''surprisingly strong among left-handed Norwegians who own guns.''
And remember, the whole farce is a lot more fun if you've voted. So do it.
Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address in oliphant@globe.com.
