By David M. Shribman, Globe Staff, 1/25/2000

ES MOINES - The breeze that blew across the great American prairie last night was cool but moderate.

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS Republican 97% of precincts reporting Bush 41% Forbes 30% Keyes 14% Bauer 9% McCain 5% Hatch 1% Democrats 98% of precincts reporting Gore 63% Bradley 35% Percentages will not necessarily add to 100. MORE COVERAGE FROM THE GLOBE Bush, Gore wrap up Iowa The votes tell the contentment Lesson of Iowa: Counterattack quickly Candidates have one goal remaining: closing the deal Tight-three way race in New Hampshire envisioned Gore plays it cool and girds for battle Hatch to announce he's quitting race Small-town USA sees big time turnout at polls On the road in N.H., McCain dismisses Iowa Sharing quarters, but ever so briefly EARLIER NEWS Gore, Bush easy winners of Iowa caucuses Voters say Bush best choice on moral values, can win in November Democrats: Iowa picks fighter Gore over Bradley's fresh start Republicans: Bush aims to use caucus victory to set up showdown with McCain Fiery Keyes gets strong caucus support Down-home politics shape Iowa Iowa's only the first step in picking nominee With a final flury, candidates focus on turnout Former president waits nervously as son competes in Iowa caucuses After Iowa: On to New Hampshire ABOUT THE CAUCUSES How Iowa caucuses work Why they are important ABOUT IOWA Population: 2.85 million. Registered voters: 1.8 million -- 36 percent unaffiliated, 32 percent Republican, 31 percent Democrat. Percentage of voters attending GOP caucuses in 1996: 17 percent. Race: 97 percent white. 2 percent black. 1 percent Asian. 2 percent Hispanic origin. Median age: 36.3. Median household income: $33,877. Poverty rate: 9.4 percent. Unemployment rate: 2.7 percent. Abortions: 9.8 per 1,000 women in 1995, compared with the national average of 22.9 per 1,000. 1996 vote: 50 percent Clinton; 40 percent Dole; 9 percent Perot. Average life span: 77 years, compared with the U.S. average of 75. Housing: Just over 72 percent of Iowans own their own homes, national average 66.3 percent. Crime rate: 3,816 victims per 100,000 people in 1997, vs. national average of 4,923. Tax burden: On a per-person basis, Iowa paid $4,530 in federal taxes in 1997 and got back $4,661 in federal spending.

With the eyes of the nation monitoring the political climate of Iowa, caucus-goers in both major parties sent an unmistakable message. From the middle of the country came a firm endorsement of the middle of the political spectrum.

In towns and crossroads and urban centers from the Missouri River in the west to the Mississippi in the east - from Ackley to Zwingle, communities that make up not only the heartland but the heart of the heartland - the verdict was clear and in its way unremarkable, for the triumph of the center is hardly an unusual American political phenomenon.

But the public usually works its way back to the center in the autumn after probing the extremes in the winter and spring, and for that reason the victories of Vice President Al Gore in the Democratic caucuses and of Texas Governor George W. Bush in the Republican caucuses send an important message to the two coasts and the rest of the nation.

The voices that spoke loudest in this year's Iowa caucuses, held in far-flung community centers and church basements and coffee shops, were the voices of contentment.

Now the race moves to New Hampshire, the graveyard of political assumptions and the charnel house of front-runners, with a reminder that last night's victories of Bush and Gore - baby-boomers from different dynasties and possessed of different temperaments - are only a tentative signal.

Overnight, and with remarkable speed, as campaign planes took off from Des Moines throughout the evening, the focus already had shifted from the Midwest to the Northeast, and a week from today the voters of New Hampshire will have their say and exert their sway.

The movement of the candidates, the campaign retinues, the correspondents, and the commentators from Iowa to New Hampshire is a symbol of the beginning of the next scene in America's greatest civic drama. In the next week, the certainties of the plains can swiftly become the uncertainties of the mountains, the surefooted can stumble, and the verities of this morning can be set aside with ease, sometimes with glee.

Indeed, the two front-runners have been under siege in New Hampshire, battered by two candidates whose performances last night in Iowa were disappointing.

Senator John McCain of Arizona barely competed in Iowa but hoped for a stealthy insurgency in Republican caucuses; it never materialized. His fifth-place finish placed him behind marginal candidates like Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer.

Former senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey conducted a spirited campaign here and had counted on a strong showing; that didn't occur, either. He won barely more than a third of Iowa's precinct caucuses, assuring that his decision to invest so much time here will be cited by political professionals for years to come.

In the Republican race, Bush now finds himself in possession of a historic vote of support in the caucuses but also facing surprising, serious opposition.

Last night the challenge came from Steve Forbes, who now can legitimately claim to be the repository of the hopes of conservatives who have not embraced the Texas governor. That position is buttressed by the endorsement of the Manchester Union Leader, a strong voice of conservative sentiment in New Hampshire.

But by the baroque logic of politics, the major beneficiary of the Forbes surge could be McCain, who attracted about a sixth of the support that Forbes won. The effect of the Forbes showing may be that it will soften Bush up for McCain.

All the challengers now are conducting underdog campaigns in an atmosphere far different from the one that prevailed only hours ago.

The new presidential race is a lot like the old presidential race except now the frontrunners have earned that title. They have actual victories to their credit and some measure of what Governor Bush's father, himself an insurgent Iowa victor in 1980, described as the ''Big Mo,'' or momentum.

The shape of the presidential race, however, isn't as streamlined as it may appear in the light of the morning after Iowa.

The two establishment candidates won big victories in a state that is finding prosperity in new ventures but suffering widespread economic distress in the old, particularly in the farm regions that are the heart of the state's heritage. Now those two establishment candidates face insurgencies in a state that is ablaze with economic growth and abloom with economic contentment.

So while Iowa, with key sectors of its economy and a fabled, revered way of life under attack, chose the safe candidates and turned away from the populists, New Hampshire is giving a close look to the populists and resisting the safe candidates.

And yet a measure of the contentment that prevails in the country is that the four figures at the top of the heap - the safe and the populist both - are, in truth, figures of the center themselves.

One of the insurgents is a third-generation Navy man in a country where the military has never been an outsider political force. The other is a graduate of one of the Ivy League's Big Three, a Rhodes Scholar, and a professional athlete. Neither McCain nor Bradley represents a whiff of a threat to the public order - though both argue they would change the nature of public life forever for big-money campaign contributors and the candidates who depend on them.

The fifth figure in the campaign, Forbes, is himself a multi-millionaire and a sturdy pillar of the conservative establishment and the publishing world.

Last night affirmed the pull of moderation in American politics. Now the candidates struggle for support in New Hampshire, where the balance of power is held by independent voters, and where the challengers - a Democrat and a Republican - are conducting insurgencies designed to appeal to this crucial and unpredictable constituency.