By Michael Crowley, Globe Staff, 1/25/2000

EST DES MOINES - An energized Steve Forbes is looking ahead to ''a tight, three-way contest'' in the New Hampshire primary after his strong second-place showing in Iowa.

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS Republican 97% of precincts reporting Bush 41% Forbes 30% Keyes 14% Bauer 9% McCain 5% Hatch 1% Democrats 98% of precincts reporting Gore 63% Bradley 35% Percentages will not necessarily add to 100. MORE COVERAGE FROM THE GLOBE Bush, Gore wrap up Iowa The votes tell the contentment Lesson of Iowa: Counterattack quickly Candidates have one goal remaining: closing the deal Tight-three way race in New Hampshire envisioned Gore plays it cool and girds for battle Hatch to announce he's quitting race Small-town USA sees big time turnout at polls On the road in N.H., McCain dismisses Iowa Sharing quarters, but ever so briefly EARLIER NEWS Gore, Bush easy winners of Iowa caucuses Voters say Bush best choice on moral values, can win in November Democrats: Iowa picks fighter Gore over Bradley's fresh start Republicans: Bush aims to use caucus victory to set up showdown with McCain Fiery Keyes gets strong caucus support Down-home politics shape Iowa Iowa's only the first step in picking nominee With a final flury, candidates focus on turnout Former president waits nervously as son competes in Iowa caucuses After Iowa: On to New Hampshire ABOUT THE CAUCUSES How Iowa caucuses work Why they are important ABOUT IOWA Population: 2.85 million. Registered voters: 1.8 million -- 36 percent unaffiliated, 32 percent Republican, 31 percent Democrat. Percentage of voters attending GOP caucuses in 1996: 17 percent. Race: 97 percent white. 2 percent black. 1 percent Asian. 2 percent Hispanic origin. Median age: 36.3. Median household income: $33,877. Poverty rate: 9.4 percent. Unemployment rate: 2.7 percent. Abortions: 9.8 per 1,000 women in 1995, compared with the national average of 22.9 per 1,000. 1996 vote: 50 percent Clinton; 40 percent Dole; 9 percent Perot. Average life span: 77 years, compared with the U.S. average of 75. Housing: Just over 72 percent of Iowans own their own homes, national average 66.3 percent. Crime rate: 3,816 victims per 100,000 people in 1997, vs. national average of 4,923. Tax burden: On a per-person basis, Iowa paid $4,530 in federal taxes in 1997 and got back $4,661 in federal spending.

Last night, supporters hugged and high-fived each other, and they chanted and cheered in a Marriott hotel ballroom as Forbes called his showing a rebuke to the elites of national politics. ''This is not a good night for the power brokers in Washington, D.C,'' Forbes said to applause.

In an interview, the millionaire publisher spoke boldy about the next stage of the race, vowing to pose a real challenge to the GOP front-runners, Texas Governor George W. Bush and Senator John McCain of Arizona.

''I can't wait to get to New Hampshire,'' Forbes said. ''This is a good, dramatic three-way race.''

''We're going to do very well there,'' Forbes continued. ''I'm beginning to get there the same feeling that we've had here in Iowa - that something is happening that the pundits and pollsters are missing.''

Forbes spent $3.2 million on advertising in Iowa alone. Last night that investment - as well as Forbes's antiabortion and flat-tax message - appeared to have paid off.

Describing the caucus results as ''awesome,'' Forbes campaign manager Bill Dal Col said, ''It's what we had to do.''

The Forbes campaign said social conservatives are rallying around Forbes, while Bush and McCain are competing for the same pool of moderates. Dal Col said yesterday that Bush could finish third in the Feb. 2 New Hampshire primary, a nearly unthinkable prospect several weeks ago.

''I am the conservative running against two moderates,'' Forbes said in the interview.

Forbes's spokesman, Greg Meuller, said Forbes would focus on taxes in New Hampshire, hammering proposals by Bush and McCain as being too modest.

''We're relishing the tax debate that's waiting for us when we get up there,'' Meuller said.

The Bush and McCain plans would lower marginal tax rates, but maintain a multitiered tax system based on income. Forbes would replace the tax code with a 17 percent flat tax, exempting up to $36,000 of income from taxes.

Yesterday, Forbes boasted that his flat-tax plan has already influenced the campaign. He also said Bush was a timid and visionless candidate who could not inspire voters and would cost his party the White House if nominated.

Forbes said Bush's approach was to ''say as little as possible, use a slogan, do winks and nods, and hope that gets you by.''

''After losing two presidential elections through that - trying to muffle the differences, trying to stifle debate - I think we need to go to what we did in the 1980s, where we did have a clear, lucid, inspired message based on principle,'' Forbes said. ''That's how we won then, that's how we're going to win in 2000.''

Forbes dismissed questions about whether he was concerned that two other conservative candidates, Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer, might make it harder for him to unite the party's right wing. Forbes noted he has received endorsements from prominent conservative leaders.

The GOP candidates sparred until the very end last night. At West Des Moines high school that served as a caucus site for hundreds of GOP voters, the Bauer campaign distributed fliers questioning Forbes's antiabortion credentials.