hat's likely to happen Tuesday when the media fog lifts? Most people won't vote. Four years ago, turnout of those Americans old enough to vote was 49 percent; it'll be about the same this time, says turnout guru Curtis Gans.
The older, whiter, richer, and more educated you are, the more likely you are to vote. Of people over 60, two out of three vote; of those 18-to-30, fewer than one out of three will vote. These tendencies help Republicans. One in six eligible voters is under 30, but only one in 10 will vote.
Men will vote for George W. Bush by 4 percent or more; women will vote for Al Gore by 5 percent or more. There's your shrinking gender gap, tracked by the Pew Research Center. Bush wins white men by a much bigger spread. Bush wins independents by 40 to 36, with Ralph Nader getting 9.
Married voters prefer Bush by 50-40. The unmarried like Gore by 48-37. Parents like Bush by 48-40; nonparents like Gore by 47-40; there's your Monica factor, a 15-point swing. Gore's 31-point advantage with union households has been trimmed down to a mere 12 points. That could determine Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Bush is clearly the candidate of those with money. The Republican, who promises big tax cuts for the rich, leads among those with family incomes over $30,000, Gore leads among lower incomes. Gore's problem? Bush's $30K and over pool is 52 percent of eligible voters, but 58 percent of likely voters.
Gore's 39 percent of under $30K household voters is only 33 percent of likely voters. Why? The rich vote, the poor quit.
If Gore loses, he'll have lost it as a result of the three debates - even though he was deemed the winner in overnight polls after Debates 1 and 3.
''Gore's personality emerged as a real liability during the presidential debates,'' says the Pew Center analysis, and that stuck. Bush voters are more enthusiastic about their man than Gore's. Bush is judged more ''likeable'' by 48 to 39 percent, a reverse of their standing on likeability in September.
Bush is seen as more likeable than Gore, but also not as smart. When CBS asked voters to rate IQ, 58 percent rated Gore ''highly intelligent,'' and 37 percent scored his brainpower as ''average intelligence.'' For Bush, the numbers were reversed: 38 percent ''highly'' and 55 percent ''average.'' Conclusion? IQ is not as important to this year's voters as ''likeability.''
The Bush campaign succeeded brilliantly in portraying Gore as ''a typical politician.'' In September, both men were rated evenly on this negative trait; by last week, Gore was a ''typical politician'' to 51 percent, to Bush's mere 29. Ditto on the Big Government charge. Even though Clinton-Gore reduced the federal payroll by 377,000 permanent jobs, to the smallest level since the early '60s, 21 percent of all voters and 30 percent of white men see Gore as favoring big government.
The Bush camp's hopes are bolstered by national tracking polls giving him a steady lead, 45 to 42 percent in Wednesday's Reuters/MSNBC survey. The Gore forces hope that lopsided support for Bush in the South and the mountain and plains states will overstate his strength, and that in state-by-state electoral vote contests, the vice president can sway turnout his way.
Gore was ahead by 7 points in Florida and six in Pennsylvania in Reuters/MSNBC poll numbers. You'd rather be Bush than Gore going into Tuesday, looking at the map. The Democrat is ahead in California (54 electoral votes) and New York (33), plus Massachusetts (12), Maryland (10), Connecticut (8), Hawaii (4), D.C. (3), New Jersey (15), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
If you give Gore Florida (25) and Pennsylvania (23) to go with battleground states where Gore is probably no better than even or marginally ahead, like Michigan (18), Illinois (22), Minnesota (10), and Tennessee (11), that leaves Gore at 255, or 15 votes short. Now it gets dicey. The Democrat needs New Hampshire (4), Maine (4), Delaware (3), and he's still short.
So Al needs Wisconsin (11) to be sure, but Ralph Nader is bleeding him badly in the land of the Cheeseheads. What to look for Tuesday night? Gore's short list is Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Maybe he lucks out in Arkansas (6) or Washington state (11) or Oregon (7), but Nader's killing him in the Northwest.
Which will be remembered in 2001. If the Democrats take back the Senate or House, which is possible, if Gore can pull out the D's, the Nader agenda will get a frosty reception. And Ralph himself will be a pariah, if he costs Democrats the White House.
There's no second place in presidential politics. As Bob Dole, Mike Dukakis, and Walter Mondale found, you lose and you are history. If Gore loses, he's finished. If George W. Bush loses, and fails to carry his brother Jeb's state of Florida, the Bush-as-dynasty act is closed permanently.
Since 1960, voters turned out the incumbent party five times, on average every eight years. By any measure - jobs, home ownership, inflation, incomes - this is the greatest economy ever. But to this year's voters ''it's not the economy, stupid.'' We'll find out if ''it's the likeability, stupid.'' Or just the stupid.
David Nyhan's e-mail address is nyhan@globe.com.
