ew Hampshire's claim of independence from any influence by the Iowa caucuses is rhetoric reinforced by record. Except for sitting presidents, every presidential candidate who won Iowa in the last five elections, since 1976, has lost the New Hampshire primary.

It is a bit early, however, for Bill Bradley or John McCain or Steve Forbes to start celebrating. In recent years, voters in the Granite State have demonstrated more interest in listening to the candidates than in prolonging precedents.

The result, in most elections, has been a campaign based on issues of broad interest.

Tonight's televised debates among the candidates in both parties should deepen the focus on the economy, health care, race relations, education, foreign policy, and the leadership qualities of the candidates. Issues of this scope have moved New Hampshire voters for decades, and there is no reason to believe that the momentum in either party might not shift heavily in a week's time - as it has in the past.

There is plenty to talk about, of both national and regional interest. The economy, for instance, is generally thriving, but there is nothing like a cold snap combined with a spike in home heating oil prices to create instant anxiety among New Englanders, especially those of modest means who are not riding with the Wall Street bulls.

In the past, Iowa has shown itself more predictable than New Hampshire, largely because caucus participants are a relatively smaller group, many of whom are connected to known interests. Organized labor has a great influence among Democratic caucus attendees in Iowa historically, as does the Christian right among Republicans. Both were on display Monday.

Both states genuinely reward retail campaigning, which is healthy for the country. But New Hampshire is the one more apt to surprise. Still, even Pat Buchanan's victory over Bob Dole in 1996 was based less on Buchanan's harsh social conservatism than on his genuine appreciation of economic concerns.

New Hampshire rewards candidates who listen, and respond thoughfully. The candidates have six days to do both.