EDFORD, N.H. - With Elizabeth Dole endorsing George W. Bush yesterday and Senator Edward M. Kennedy set to back Al Gore today, the presidential candidates are counting on the announcements to bring new supporters. But evidence that such endorsements make any difference with voters is decidedly mixed, perhaps nowhere more so than in independent-minded New Hampshire.
Some analysts say such endorsements could work against Bush and Gore because voters in the first-primary state have a history of going against the establishment candidate. In 1996, for example, Bob Dole was backed by many state political leaders, including Stephen Merrill, who was then governor, but the New Hampshire primary was won by the anti-establishment candidate, Patrick J. Buchanan, who had relatively few endorsements.
''This is completely predictable,'' said Dartmouth College government professor Dean Spiliotes. ''Initially, endorsements give you credibility as a candidate. But now, given the climate of politics up here, being endorsed by an establishment politician is not always the best thing for your candidacy. It just reinforces your business-as-usual position.''
To be sure, Kennedy hopes to provide support for Gore among liberals and lend credibility to Gore's health-care plan. Elizabeth Dole could help Bush among women and younger voters.
But the bottom line is there were no major surprises in this week's endorsement news. The announcements that tend to shake up a race occur when major political leaders reject the establishment candidates, such as when Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York last year announced his support for Bill Bradley in the Democratic race. A Kennedy endorsement of Bradley would have dealt a very serious blow to Gore, but a Kennedy endorsement of the vice president is likely to have much less impact.
Still, the timing of Kennedy's endorsement is intriguing, coming just 10 days before the nation's leading liberal group, Americans for Democratic Action, plans to begin discussing whether to endorse any candidate in the primaries. Amy Isaacs, the group's national director, said her 120-member board seems split between Gore and Bradley. It takes a 60 percent vote of the board for an endorsement from the organization, which has 65,000 members, many of them activists who participate in primaries.
Asked about the impact of Kennedy's endorsement on her membership, Isaacs said: ''It will be one of many factors. We work very closely with the senator, so it is bound to have an impact.''
But, like a number of people interviewed for this report, she stressed that a Kennedy endorsement of Bradley could have had a much deeper impact. ''People would have said, `Whoa,' if Kennedy had felt that strongly about it, because Kennedy had his own insurgency campaign'' in 1980 against Jimmy Carter, when he was president.
Gore declined during a visit to Somersworth High School to acknowledge that he is receiving today's endorsement, but he lionized Kennedy as ''the single greatest United States senator I have served with.''
''Anyone would benefit enormously from having an endorsement from someone like that,'' Gore said. ''I think endorsements are important if they are coupled with strong support at the grass roots and enthusiastic commitment from people in the precincts of New Hampshire.
''If you have that, then, I think people who respect the person involved certainly take that into account,'' he said.
Kennedy and Gore plan to talk about education policy at a Boston middle school today before driving to Portsmouth to discuss health care with senior citizens.
A person close to Kennedy noted that Kennedy's ''credibility on health care is enormously helpful to Gore.''
Bradley has made health care a central issue in his campaign, promising to provide insurance to 95 percent of Americans and criticizing Gore's proposal for not going far enough. Kennedy has been a Senate champion of various national health insurance programs for decades.
Bradley, presenting himself as an outsider, has not relied on endorsements and has received none from his home-state congressional delegation in New Jersey.
Endorsements have played a key part in the campaign, but mostly at the beginning of the race. Bush initially became the Republican front-runner nationally because of his ability to wrap up so many endorsements so early. The initial burst of enthusiasm for the Texas governor's candidacy came after many Republican governors backed him, which led to an outpouring of financial support and accompanied his rise in the polls.
Dole's backing of Bush was unsurprising because she is viewed as angling for the vice presidential nomination.
''Governor Bush is doing so well with women, with the old, the young, and minorities,'' Dole said yesterday before about 350 people at a restaurant here. ''If I can be of just a little help with those voters, I'll be pleased.''
Bush, asked whether he would choose Dole as his running mate, said, ''First things first. It's important to have a strong woman like Elizabeth Dole standing by my side to help me win the primaries and the caucuses.''
Dole's husband, Bob, has not endorsed any candidate but is a close friend of Arizona Senator John McCain, Bush's top rival. Bob Dole last year caused a stir when he said he was considering contributing $1,000 to McCain's campaign.
Endorsements may have more impact in Iowa, which votes by highly organized caucuses, than in New Hampshire. Yesterday, Bush traveled with Elizabeth Dole to Iowa to receive the long-expected backing of Senator Charles Grassley, who said the Texas governor is ''a man who inspires us with optimism and faith.''
Grassley is highly popular in Iowa and effective in grass-roots organization, an element that will be vital in the Jan. 24 caucuses. Bush already has won endorsements from other prominent Iowa Republicans, including two former governors, Terry Branstad and Robert Ray, who held the state's chief executive office for 30 consecutive years.
Contributing to this report were Yvonne Abraham of the Globe Staff from New Hampshire and correspondent Curtis Wilkie from Iowa. Zuckman reported from New Hampshire; Kranish from Washington.
