JOHN ELLIS

Will Bush run?

By John Ellis, Globe Staff, January 21, 1999

John Ellis is a Globe columnist and a cousin of Governor Bush.

Texans like him back. Bush's job approval ratings are stratospheric. His personal popularity is immense. Rita Braver, down in Austin to profile the governor for the CBS News program "Sunday Morning," said she couldn't find anyone in Texas willing to say anything negative about the governor.

("She didn't talk to me," said one of Bush's brothers mischievously).

When he was sworn in on Tuesday, Bush became the first governor in the state's history to begin serving a second four-year term. He was reelected with an astonishing 69 percent of the vote, winning half the Hispanic vote and a quarter of the African-American vote. His coattails enabled a Republican sweep of every statewide office and every statewide judicial post. In four short years, Bush all but completed the transformation of Texas politics, cementing GOP gains in what was once the land of the yellow dog Democrat.

Of course, no one cares about any of that. The question that dominated Bush's second inaugural was whether or not he would seek the Republican presidential nomination in the year 2000. The answer to all that asked was: "Assume it's a go, unless he says otherwise." And so they did. Fund-raising people met to discuss the money. Political people met to talk about the politics. A rough timetable was outlined; the establishment of a presidential campaign exploratory committee in late March, an announcement of candidacy in June or July. The briefings on issues of national security, economic policy, and cultural concerns will continue apace. By the end of the Texas Legislative session, all systems will be ready for launch.

On some level, Bush has to run for president. It will never be this easy (relatively speaking) again.

The political infrastructure is there. Bush enjoys political support within the GOP that is both wide and deep. The Bush network, built by his father and expanded by the sons, is composed of 30,000 to 40,000 people across the country. Most of them would suit up for the campaign the moment they were asked to do so.

The money is there. Bush has on his hard drive the names of 19,000 people who contributed $1,000 or more to his reelection campaign. Most of them would write a check for $1,000 to jump-start his presidential campaign.

Bush's fund-raising team believes that they can raise more than $40 million in 1999 alone.

The brains are there. Bush has spent countless hours consulting with conservative intellectuals, economists, and veterans of his father's administration. Former Secretary of State George Shultz, Stanford University's chancellor, Condi Rice, UCLA sociologist James Q. Wilson, Harvard University professor Michael Porter, and a host of others are all on board to help think through pressing policy matters.

Most important, the opportunity is there. The year 2000 presidential race is an "open seat" election. There will be no elected incumbent in the field.

The GOP field is solid, but not strong. It's a lot easier to win the general election if the intraparty opposition can be quickly dispatched.

Because of the front-loaded primary calendar, Bush has the political and financial resources to lock up the GOP presidential nomination by the end of March 2000.

"I feel like a cork on a raging river," Bush said last August when asked how he felt about a possible presidential candidacy. The currents are now hurtling him toward the race. Demand for his candidacy escalates with each passing day. He must decide soon or risk alienating the Republican base.

Many are certain he will run. I would not be surprised if he went the other way. George W. Bush has what it takes to run for president, but he knows what it takes from the candidate and those he loves the most.

In his book about the 1988 presidential campaign, Richard Ben Cramer wrote: "What it takes is your life." Is it worth it? Washington has become a cesspool. National politics have become deranged. Electronic media have no interest in governance or matters of public policy; the name of the ratings game is scandal and character assassination. This state of affairs will probably get worse before it gets better.

Bush may well wait until the maelstrom subsides and make his run four years down the road. The question that no one can answer is whether, by then, his time will have passed.