ONCORD, N.H. - Suddenly the unimaginable isn't. And the favorites might not be.
Now political professionals, candidates, commentators and voters are talking openly and easily of a notion that seemed far-fetched when the New Hampshire primary seemed far away:
The two party front-runners actually could lose the nation's first presidential ballotting.
Would it matter if they did? The unsettling answer for all the candidates and news organizations that are investing so much money in this state might be that the New Hampshire primary could matter only if the front-runners prevail.
If they win, both the Democratic and Republican contests could come to a dead halt, with presumptive nominees obvious to all. If they lose, the race almost certainly would go on.
Wintering the discontent
As the days grow shorter, the afternoons colder, and the first presidential primary nearer, New Hampshire has cast away the clothes - and the political assumptions - of summer. Vice President Al Gore is planning on battling for the White House long past Feb. 1, the date his strategists once thought the Democratic nomination could be wrapped up. Texas Governor George W. Bush is now laying the groundwork for a campaign that could last weeks after New Hampshire, when his advisers thought the Republican nomination could be all but clinched.
''Both races look different than they did just a few months ago,'' said Constantine J. Spiliotes, a Dartmouth College political scientist. ''Both front-runners seriously underestimated the appeal of the insurgent, outsider, straight-talking challenger. The front-runners may have to make their stand elsewhere.''
No one now doubts that the position of the front-runners has eroded seriously here, with Senator John McCain of Arizona closing in on Bush in the GOP primary and with former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey and Gore virtually deadlocked among Democrats.
But nationally, Gore and Bush still hold commanding leads. A New York Times/CBS News Poll taken this month shows that Bush's lead over McCain stands at 60 percentage points, appreciably bigger than a month ago. The same poll shows that Gore's lead over Bradley stands at 26 percentage points, down in a month's time from 32 percentage points but still robust.
It is anathema to utter this notion here in New Hampshire, where the primary is regarded as a sacred political bellwether, but in recent years the national standing of the presidential candidates has mattered far more than the results of the state's ballotting.
The front-runners' national leads are both bigger than the advantage former governor Ronald Reagan held over Senator Howard H. Baker Jr. at about the same point in the 1980 GOP race. Reagan won that battle in a breeze. Bush's lead is far greater than the lead former vice president Walter F. Mondale held over Senator John H. Glenn Jr. at this same point in 1984. Mondale won the nomination that year, and Glenn barely survived past New Hampshire. Bush's lead is also bigger than the lead his father, Vice President George Bush, held over Senator Robert J. Dole at this point in 1988. The elder Bush won the GOP nomination easily.
''The front-runners have built-in advantages,'' said John G. Geer, a Vanderbilt University political scientist. ''People are front-runners for good reason. But you can get pretty famous and get a lot of support in this country quickly. If McCain wins New Hampshire, he can get on the front covers of magazines and newspapers and gain a lot of momentum.''
That is the perennial hope of the challenger - that an early win can catapult him to the front and prompt an outpouring of support.
''It's much more difficult than it was to win an early primary and then ride the momentum all the way to the White House,'' said William G. Mayer, a Northeastern University political scientist. ''There isn't the time to raise the money and set up an organization in a couple of dozen states that are going to vote within the next month or so.''
Jury still out on Bush
The two parties' primaries could not be more different in one important area - the nature of the two front-runners.
The Democrats' race is shaped by the public's view of Gore, which is not likely to change after his seven years as vice president. The Republicans' race is shaped by the public's sketchy view of Bush, which is still subject to change. While earlier Republican front-runners like his father and Dole were well-established national figures, Bush remains a work in progress.
Though the governor has a thin resume - only five years in public life - and a thin hold on the public imagination, he has a large campaign treasury. Students of presidential nomination battles believe there are two principal predictors of victory. One is national poll standings. The other is campaign treasuries.
Advice to campaign junkies: Follow the money. Advice to New Hampshire primary voters: Act locally, but think nationally.
