NEWS ANALYSIS

With 'compassionate conservatism,' Bush takes centrist stage

By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, June 16, 1999

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- The strategy behind George W. Bush's broad, fill-in-the-blanks agenda has been on clear display this week. He is running as if the presidential nomination is already sewn up and is positioning himself in the middle of the American political spectrum for the general election.

Bush, of course, says he is taking nothing for granted and will campaign hard in New Hampshire. But Bush is betting that New Hampshire Republicans, as well as those across the country, are more interested in a nominee who can win in November 2000 than one who tries to run to the right on all the conservative issues that dominate primaries.

Indeed, the Texas governor's signature call for "compassionate conservatism" is turning out to be quite a lot like the strategy employed by President Clinton, who beat Bush's father in 1992 by running as a "new Democrat" who also ran toward the middle.

For the short term, the Texan's strategy appears to have worked, with undeniably enthusiastic crowds and support. But some of those who were impressed said they will be taking a closer look between now and primary day, tentatively scheduled for early February.

"He's got great charisma," said Doug Blampied, who heard Bush speak at a fire station in Bow, N.H. "I think he said pretty much the right things from my perspective. But I am just going to have to wait to be more clear about how he will accomplish these things." Blampied is not alone; 73 percent of those surveyed nationally in a CNN poll last week said they wanted to know more about Bush. So would Blampied sacrifice some of his conservative principles if he were convinced Bush could win in November 2000? "Absolutely," the retired insurance company executive said. That view is echoed by many Republicans across the Granite State and explains why Bush can run a general election strategy in June 1999.

Bush's first act in New Hampshire was to apologize for being the last candidate to arrive. But after two days here, as well as a day in the first-caucus state of Iowa and a brief visit to Massachusetts yesterday, it was apparent the delay had paid off. The anticipation resulted in a news media mob that grew to 300, more than usually follow a candidate at the end of a close campaign. Bush also made the covers of Time and Newsweek. "I'm trying to think how it could have gone better," said Bush spokesman David Beckwith, whose job is to put the most positive spin on the governor's visit. "I can't."

Bush made no apology for his lack of specifics, saying the time for 10-point plans would come later. And there were many blanks to be filled in, with Bush refusing to explain his plan to cut taxes or privatize Social Security. At the same time, Bush sought to obscure his position on some issues. Instead of saying he was against affirmative action, for example, he said he was for "affirmative access," which he described as a plan to get the individuals into top schools regardless of race.

Bush never mentioned his antiabortion position until he was asked about it by a reporter, which resulted in the governor's saying that he would not impose an abortion litmus test in nominating judges.

Perhaps the most revealing comment by Bush came when he acknowledged he has not put together a specific program of proposals.

"By the time this campaign is over, I will have an agenda, a clear agenda, that people can understand," Bush said.

Bush opened his campaign swing in a jocular manner, calling his jet "Great Expectations" and handing out baseball-themed luggage tags that asked reporters to rate his trip from a grand slam to "back to the minors." But Bush's strategy wasn't to hit anything out of the park; instead, it was to make it through his Opening Day in Iowa and New Hampshire without any errors.

But shortly after arriving in New Castle, N.H., an upscale coastal community, Bush got a preview of the potential downside of being the front-runner. A local reporter stood up at a news conference and noted that Bush has called for a new era of responsibility while declining to explain his statement: "When I was young and irresponsible, I was young and irresponsible." Bush nearly lost his temper, saying that he made mistakes while refusing to explain them.

While that took care of the question for the moment, it is far from clear whether Bush can brush off the query month after month, especially if it is raised directly by one of his opponents in a debate.

Bush's campaign style revealed a split personality. When it came to plunging into crowds and greeting voters, Bush was Clinton's equal, smiling sincerely and searching out the most reluctant person in the back of a crowd for conversation. At an Iowa event that attracted 500, Bush remained to shake hands until nearly everyone had departed.

But when it came to Bush's public speaking, he was as scripted as any candidate, a point that seemed overlooked because of the freshness of his candidacy. He repeated his favorite applause lines about compassionate conservatism and the need to "leave no children behind." Even at the emotional high point of the trip, his joint appearance with his parents at the family compound in Kennebunkport, Maine, Bush's comments were nearly all repetitions of past statements.

In keeping with the low-risk nature of the trip, Bush's visits were nearly all to politically safe venues, meeting with invited supporters or contributors. By no means did he fulfill his vow to look voters in the eye or appear on every porch to ask for support. Instead, his message was mostly conveyed through the news media, which treated his trip with all the importance accorded to a presidential visit.