ASHINGTON - Sunday's Million Mom March on the Mall has the potential to be something much larger than either its one-day turnout, emotional appeal, or hype suggests. If it succeeds in pushing gun control up high on the national agenda, it could help Al Gore's bid for president and endanger congressional Republicans in swing districts.
Gun control has emerged as a major concern of women in this election year, so potent that some predict the march could generate a new women's political movement around the issue and put political candidates who don't support a host of gun-safety measures on the spot.
''The gun-control issue is something that will really cut across party lines,'' said GOP pollster Linda DiVall, noting that as a single issue, gun control now is about twice as likely as abortion to influence women voters. And, she noted, Republicans have ''a lot more conflict'' over the issue than Democrats.
GOP presidential candidate George W. Bush has been trying to woo women because they have provided the margin of victory for the Democrats in the past two presidential races. So far, he has had success, polls show, but gun control could be a problem for him, particularly if it takes off this election season. While Bush supports mandatory trigger locks and raising the age of legal handgun possession from 18 to 21, the Texas governor signed a measure last year that makes it legal in the state to carry concealed handguns.
His position is anathema to the gun-control lobby, and Handgun Control Inc., an advocacy group, recently began running a 30-second ad in seven cities that highlights Bush's record on guns. The ad also quotes an official of the National Rifle Association saying, ''If we win, we'll have a president...where we work out of their office.''
Gore, who favors several new gun regulations and has proposed stiffer penalties for gun-related crimes, lately has been hammering Bush on his ties to the NRA and the concealed-gun law. ''Will he fight for the gun industry, or for America's families?'' the vice president asked in a recent newspaper interview.
''I think gun control could become a campaign issue, for the mere reason that there is a big gender gap, and if Al Gore has learned anything from Bill Clinton, it's that he needs to do something to appeal to women voters,'' said Dianne Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University. ''This could be the issue, and it's one where he can really draw distinctions with George Bush.''
Bystrom said that in the mid-1990s, pollsters started detecting a gender split on crime. Men wanted harsher punishment for perpetrators. Women, concerned that they or their families would be crime victims, sought more protection. Since the massacre at Columbine High School last year and other incidents of school violence, fear has moved gun safety to the top of the women's agenda, she said.
Polling firms say they have been stunned by the huge and widening gender gap on gun control. A survey released yesterday by the Pew Research Center found that 67 percent of women and 46 percent of men said gun control was more important than gun-owner's rights, while 49 percent of men and 28 percent of women favored owner's rights.
''Women are angry, and they want action,'' said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who specializes in women's voting behavior.
Many people tell poll takers they aren't sure more gun laws will really make much of a difference, and they question how effectively laws on the books are enforced. But that doesn't take into account the emotional nature of the gun debate, particularly for women.
''It can be a very dangerous issue, especially for suburban Republicans, because it's very symbolic in defining a candidate,'' said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican political consultant. ''You might be for trigger locks, or smart-gun technology, but if you won't say you'll take guns away from people, then you get painted as an extremist and pushed out of the mainstream.''
What happens here on Mother's Day, at a march billed as a mainstream event, is important.
Powerful images of a crowd as large as 150,000 - mostly women, some pushing baby strollers, many from the inner city, a few victims of violence, many described, or describing themselves, as soccer moms - aim to vex Capitol Hill's GOP leaders, who for a year have stalled a bill that would provide background checks on buyers at gun shows.
But the ambition of march founder Donna Dees-Thomases, a Short Hills, N.J., mother and professional publicist, goes beyond calling attention to pending legislation. She wants Sunday's speeches and show of solidarity to stir up grass-roots activism when the women go home, and to influence voting in presidential, congressional, and local contests in November.
''I'm not sure the march will move the bill [in Congress] next week, but the Martin Luther King march didn't move the civil rights bill the next week either,'' said David Rosenbloom, director of Join Together, a team at the Boston University School of Public Health that works on preventing gun violence and substance abuse.
''It's very infrequent that you get so many people from around the country mobilized on one issue, and the idea hit a wellspring of emotion and activism that has been missing in American politics for quite some time. This is more than a walk in the sun. It has the capacity to be a very big moment.''
Organizers are estimating a crowd of 150,000, which will feature women victims of gun violence, celebrities like Rosie O'Donnell and Susan Sarandon, and politicians, including first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton and Maryland Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. As many as 5,000 marchers are expected to travel from Massachusetts, said Greta Hardina, a march organizer in Cambridge.
Near the Lincoln Memorial, a group called the Second Amendment Sisters is expecting as many as 10,000 women to march Sunday on behalf of the rights of Americans to bear arms. Debra Collins of Aurora, Colo., a march coordinator, says she shares the same concern as the Million Mom Marchers - protecting herself and her loved ones.
The NRA this week launched a ''Safe Kids'' advertising campaign and committed $1 million to put a gun-safety program in every American classroom.
According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the NRA has donated $577,129 to congressional candidates and made $664,650 in soft-money contributions to the Republican Party so far this election cycle. The figures are higher than two years ago, and reflect, some analysts say, the group's attempts to strengthen an eroding position.
''If Columbine and other events of the past year can't persuade lawmakers on the fence to vote for gun legislation, I'm not sure that having a million moms at their door will do it, either,'' said James Alan Fox, the Lipman professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University. ''The fundamental issue is, are they willing to stand up against the gun lobby?''
