year ago this week, the governor of Texas criticized his fellow Republicans running Congress for ''trying to balance the budget on the backs of the poor.''
The usually tone-deaf GOP congressional leaders, long inured to the media, the masses, and wallowing in the dregs of impeachment and umpteen investigations of assorted Democrats, were staggered. ''Doesn't this guy get it?'' they asked themselves. Even George W. Bush's fellow Texan, GOP legbreaker Dick Armey, grumped that Governor Bush didn't know how Washington worked.
But since then, all is forgiven. The Republicans are desperate to hold onto their tiny margin of control in the House, from which flows chairmanships, staff, and the ability to write laws in committee, and to charge lobbyists huge fees for doing such. So they're all lined up behind George Dubbaya, who looks as if he might win, and maybe he'll help keep the GOP in control, though the public in polling surveys prefers the president be of opposite party to the Congress.
So now it's tax cuts all around, because the budget has been balanced, there's a looming surplus to be plundered for this cause or that, and the Washington insiders that Bush pretends to run against are licking their chops at their prospects under President Dubbaya, a.k.a. ''Dumbaya,'' in the view of one of my Lone Star State e-mailers.
The special interests that have cushioned Bush's path along the way regard him as amiable, malleable, and workable. They can fashion him and his policies, is the consensus. ''We can work with George,'' is the consensus. That really means they can work on this man who has the shallowest qualifications of any potential president since, oh, Ronald Reagan in 1980.
After Bush's calculated outburst of compassionate conservatism a year ago, the signal that he was not to be judged one of the hard-hearted, flinty-eyed, green-eye-shade bean counters who wanted to hector the poor, he fell into line - the party line. He's raised $100 million since then, from the not-so-poor. The Fortune 500 crowd has forked over $40 million to Republicans, half that to Democrats.
Texas lost $446 million in federal health insurance money because the state refused to implement faster a plan to furnish health insurance to children in low-income families.
Bush's promise to rebate $1.4 million in federal taxes is the toast of the GOP caucus. Forget about that hoary conservative nostrum: ''There's no such thing as a free lunch.'' Dubbaya is promising free breakfast, dinner and snack-time as well, with the benefits sharply tilted to the already-rich.
''The Bush claim that his tax cut not only doesn't reward the rich but actually makes them pay more [W. the Redistributor?] is really phony,'' concluded Al Hunt of The Wall Street Journal, who did the tortuous math. (My pal Al risks wandering into Adam Clymer-ville with the Bush posse.)
But then, after the three debates, no one actually expects the governor to truly understand what he's talking about. Hey (wink-wink, grin-grin, shrug-shrug), it's all ''fuzzy math'' to me!
The three debates drew a cumulative 100 million viewers, give or take, many of them repeat customers. How many of them would hire George W. to make out their tax returns? If you walked into H&R Block with your 1040 form and your shoebox of receipts at tax time, would you trust this guy to figure your taxes? No way.
''But he's likable!'' hoot my Republican friends. ''And Gore's such a stiff!''
When I hear Dubbaya stammer out his vision, I'm not reassured.
''I got a strategy for the Middle East.'' Great, Guv.
And ''there's too much name-calling in Washington.''
That same day, Bush-backer William Bennett led off his Wall Street Journal article thus: ''Albert Arnold Gore Jr. is a habitual liar.'' And Bill Clinton is, too, claimed Bennett, whose brother was Clinton's impeachment lawyer, and customarily vouched for his client's veracity. But hey, it's Washington, right?
There's too much stuff that's ''political'' in D.C., frowns Dubbaya. Does the word ''impeachment'' ring a bell, Governor?
''I can reach across party lines,'' says the standard-bearer of the party that shut down the government for four weeks out of spite against the president.
I'm not into that ''partisanship'' thing, Bush confides. Thus spaketh the man whose party gave us Ken Starr, Whitewater, Filegate, Travelgate, all the other go-nowhere gates.
Two weeks out from Election Day, the race seems frozen in place: another low-turnout election in a time of peace and prosperity roiled by turmoil in the Middle East and shakiness in the stock exchanges. It will come down to the results in a handful of swing states, possibly two handfuls.
If Gore is the issue, the Democrats lose. If Bush is the issue, the Republicans lose. So: who's the bigger issue? The next two weeks will tell. Clearly, this time it's not ''the economy, stupid.'' Nor, apparently, is ''stupid'' any criterion this time around. The buzzword is ''likability.''
Let me try that out: ''It's the likability, stupid.''
Why doesn't that explanation do anything for me?
David Nyhan is a Globe columnist.
