ASHINGTON - For months, the opponents of Republican presidential front-runner George W. Bush have been whispering to reporters that the Texas governor is on the verge of being tripped by a scandal. Something would develop from Bush's acknowledged heavy drinking, or his avoidance of combat duty, or his refusal to say whether he had used illegal drugs.
Indeed, given Bush's overwhelming financial strength, as well as his decision last week to forgo federal funds for his primary campaign and thus avoid spending limits, some analysts think the only way to beat Bush is to unearth some kind of personal scandal.
But so far, after many media organizations have scrutinized Bush's biography for several months, there have been no blockbuster revelations, although there have been more than a few embarrassments. Bush, instead of faltering, has thrived, and the GOP field last week shrank by two candidates, as Representative John Kasich of Ohio dropped out and Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire left the Republican Party.
Still, the Bush campaign knows that everyone from the Republican opponents to the Democratic National Committee to the media will continue to investigate Bush's background. The Bush campaign has already conducted its own informal investigation of the candidate's life to be prepared for any questions. After six months of questioning from the national press corps, campaign officials are so confident that no harmful material will turn up that they welcome investigations.
''People can dig around all they want, and they should,'' said Ron Kaufman, the White House political director under President George Bush and a family friend for 23 years. ''That's part of the game, that is part of the rules. But they won't find anything.''
Kaufman knows as well as anyone in politics how presumptuous it can be to hope that an opponent's background will determine the outcome of the race. When President Bush ran for reelection in 1992, many Bush aides were overly confident that Bill Clinton's avoidance of the draft or his alleged extramarital affairs would do him in.
As it turned out, the allegations of Clinton's affair with Gennifer Flowers were true. And, the president went on to have a relationship with White House intern Monica S. Lewinsky that resulted in his impeachment but not his removal from office. The result, according to political analysts, is that the standards for the conduct of prospective presidents have been greatly lowered.
In Bush's case, lowering the ethical bar may have helped. If a candidate surfaced a decade ago who acknowledged being a onetime heavy drinker and served in the National Guard during the Vietnam War, he might have had a tough time making it through the primaries. Bush fits that description. But if Clinton could overcome his personal background and win election, the thinking goes, then Bush can, too.
''Clinton's indiscretions have numbed the public,'' said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. ''You'd need to find an awfully large indiscretion to be a major political problem for Bush.''
Rothenberg, referring to Bush's statement that he has reformed since his ''young and irresponsible'' days, said Bush has sought to inoculate himself by vaguely acknowledging bad behavior and promising ''he won't do it as president.''
In recent weeks, the Bush campaign has fended off questions about a variety of incidents with well-prepared answers.
When reporters asked how Bush was able to join a Texas Air National Guard unit during the Vietnam War and not see combat, the campaign produced a former Guard official who swore that Bush was not given special treatment to get into the unit. When a political opponent leaked real estate records that showed Bush once purchased property restricted to white people, the campaign quickly responded that Bush never knew about the covenant and noted it was null and void under Texas law.
Bush has also acted swiftly to rein in his staff, resulting in this week's departure of David Beckwith as his communications director. Beckwith had served as press secretary for Vice President Dan Quayle, now a Bush primary opponent.
While the Bush campaign officials won't say publicly what they disliked about Beckwith, some privately pointed to what they considered his low-balling of Bush's campaign receipts. The campaign also apparently was upset with Beckwith's comment to the Austin American-Statesman about the upcoming Iowa straw poll. ''This isn't a caucus,'' Beckwith was quoted as saying. ''A caucus is bad enough. You sit there for four hours in the fire station. This is give-up-an-entire-Saturday in the middle of summer.''
Bush denied that he fired Beckwith, saying the spokesman had resigned by mutual agreement. ''It just didn't work,'' Bush said, cutting off questions about the matter at a Washington news conference Wednesday. Beckwith could not be reached for comment.
Some of Bush's opponents believe the public only now is becoming aware of the contrast between Bush's early years and his more recent call for a ''moral line in the sand'' and an era of responsibility. At various times in recent weeks, Bush has urged people to abstain from premarital sex and to stay away from alcohol and illegal drugs.
But Bush's Republican opponents, many of whom have openly attacked Clinton for his personal problems, have so far said little or nothing about Bush's life. While several GOP campaigns acknowledged they are investigating Bush, they insisted they are not probing his personal life.
''Are we doing research? Sure,'' said Greg Mueller, a top adviser to GOP candidate Steve Forbes. ''But our emphasis is on his record and what he said on the campaign trail,'' Mueller said, drawing attention to what he called Bush's 75 tax hikes as governor.
As for Bush's past, ''the media are doing a good job of looking in this,'' Mueller said.
Indeed, reporters from many news organizations, including the supermarket tabloids, have spent months investigating Bush. The governor himself may be responsible for questions about possible drug use because he has refrained from answering questions about whether he had ever used cocaine.
When a Bush aide was asked recently why the governor has refused to say whether he used illegal drugs, the aide followed the governor's lead by not commenting. Instead, the aide e-mailed a newspaper article that said no evidence of drug use could be found.
Bush, in an interview earlier this year, said he would stick by his refusal to comment.
''I think people who have been checking into my background will find that I have probably been more tough on myself than I should be,'' Bush said. ''This is a world of rumors and gossip. When campaigns get cranked up, people start floating all kinds of rumors and gossip about candidates. And I am certainly not immune to that ...
''So when I get asked pointed questions, I'm going to remind people that I made mistakes in the past. And the question is, have I learned from those mistakes, not what you did 20 or 30 years ago.''
Rothenberg, the analyst, said it seems likely that damaging information about Bush would have surfaced by now if it exists. Then again, Rothenberg said, if there is such information, ''a smart opposition research guy will say, `Why should we use it now? Wait a while.'''
