ASHINGTON - Senator John McCain recently became one of the biggest spenders - and gamblers - in the New Hampshire presidential primary. While some Republicans are hoarding their cash or spending it on next month's Iowa straw vote, he mailed 50,000 biographical videos to New Hampshire residents.
Elizabeth Dole, by contrast, has not done a single mass mailing in New Hampshire or set up a telephone bank. And Lamar Alexander, with only $90,000 cash on hand, has put most of his money in Iowa.
These contrasting strategies, revealed in spending reports and interviews, provide a summer snapshot of how the Republican presidential field is jockeying for position in a pack led by Texas Governor George W. Bush. While it is difficult to judge the long-term impact of these tactics, McCain's gamble seems to be paying off in the short term, at least in the Granite State.
A New Hampshire poll released 10 days ago showed McCain in second place with 13 percent of those surveyed, compared with Bush's 47 percent. Notably, McCain has passed Steve Forbes, who has spent $8.3 million in the state - including $2.7 million on advertisements - but is only at 2 percent in the poll.
''McCain has been grinding it out, doing the right things, mailing the videos and making the phone calls,'' said Dick Bennett of the American Research Group in Manchester, N.H., which conducted the survey.
Dole's drop in the poll to 7 percent from 15 percent in June might be due partly to her decision against sending out mass mailings or setting up a phone bank. But a Dole spokesman said the former American Red Cross president is wise to wait before spending too much.
''One strategy is to spend early, peak early,'' Dole spokesman Ari Fleischer said, referring to McCain. ''People are free to make that mistake if they choose. But Elizabeth Dole's strategy is to get a strong bounce off of Iowa and be poised to do well in New Hampshire. It's better to have a crescendo timed to peak in February than a staccato burst in the summer when no one is paying attention.''
McCain's beneath-the-radar tactic highlights a series of strategic decisions facing all campaigns, such as whether to spend early or late, and whether to focus more on the first-caucus state of Iowa than the first-primary state of New Hampshire.
Aside from Bush's dominance in the polls and in raising money, three factors are driving the campaign at this stage:
The compressed primary schedule means the nomination could be decided by early March, just weeks after the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, putting a premium on strong showings in the early states.
The decision by Bush and Forbes to forgo matching federal funds, and thus avoid spending limits, means they will have an enormous financial advantage. The other candidates have to abide by an overall spending cap of $33 million for the primaries, not including certain fund-raising and legal expenses. Bush has already raised $37 million and expects to have $60 million or more by early next year, while Forbes has said he will spend whatever is needed from his own funds.
Bush and Forbes also don't have to abide by federal limits on how much a candidate can spend in each state during the primary campaign. The limit is $1.3 million in Iowa and $660,000 in New Hampshire. While there are plenty of loopholes for covering the costs of postage, salaries, fund-raising, and other items, many candidates are wary of spending money early for fear they will have limited cash in the crucial last two weeks before a primary.
''The state caps create an inequitable situation,'' said Fred Wertheimer, president of Democracy 21, which advocates an overhaul of the campaign finance system. ''Those caps treat New Hampshire and Iowa as small states when the primary process treats them as national events, so they are not realistic if people are going to spend months and months campaigning there.''
While Bush and Forbes enjoy an abundance of campaign funds, they have seemingly opposite strategies about how to spend the money. Bush, riding a wave of publicity about his front-runner status, spent only $38,000 on advertising during the first six months of this year.
Forbes, meanwhile, has shelled out $2.7 million for radio and television advertising during that time, much of it in Iowa and New Hampshire.
As for Forbes's showing of 2 percent in the New Hampshire poll, the Forbes campaign said its internal surveys put him at 6 percent. Moreover, Appel said, Forbes will be stronger in the coming months because, unlike most other candidates, he will have enough money to compete against Bush.
Still, Bush's strong lead has led to speculation that Forbes would resort to repeating his 1996 tactic, unleashing a negative advertising campaign against front-runner Bob Dole at the height of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.
McCain's campaign video explains the life of the former Vietnam prisoner of war, telling how he was shot down and held captive for more than five years. The video also has garnered some controversy because the scene of a pilot parachuting to the ground is stock Pentagon footage and is not McCain, as some viewers initially believed.
With the video costing $1.10 apiece to produce and mail, the Arizona Republican spent more $50,000 on the New Hampshire effort. But McCain's spending report shows he spent only $19,000 in New Hampshire in the first six months of 1999. A McCain aide explained that only the postage and some production costs qualified as New Hampshire expenses, with the rest absorbed by other spending categories. For example, McCain asked for a contribution with each tape, which qualified the mailing as a fund-raising expense. That means 50 percent of the cost of the mailing did not count toward the New Hampshire cap.
McCain, in an interview, said he decided to spend money earlier than most candidates, because he needed to boost his name identification.
McCain also made a calculated decision against participating in the Aug. 14 Iowa straw poll, where candidates such as Bush and Forbes are spending heavily. McCain said he hasn't written off Iowa, but he knows a poor showing in the straw poll would seriously harm his campaign.
