It's all about convergence
By John Ellis, Globe Columnist
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Hello, Tombouctou
The iridium network provides telecommunications capability from anywhere on Earth, using 66 low-orbit satellites. The system is supported by a consortium of international telecommunications companies that spent approximately $4 billion to create a go-everywhere phone.
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Using any telephone, a person in Boston (1) dials a special four-digit iridium prefix and phone number. The signal goes to Iridium North America's ground station in Arizona (2).
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A signal is sent from the ground station to the nearest satellite (3). The signal then bounces from satellite to satellite until it reaches the one closest to the Sahara desert, relaying the signal directly to the Iridium phone (4).
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Iridium satellites (5) orbit 485 miles above the Earth, whereas other communications satellites (such as those servicing cellular phones) hover at 22,300 miles (6).
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Versatility
Works as a cellular phone, a pager, or a satellite phone depending on availability or compatible service.
Iridium phones and pagers carry a new International Telecommunications Union "registry mark," which permits unrestricted international use.
More than 50 pagers have been distributed free to broadcast outlets, emergency relief efforts, and refugee camps in the Balkans.
ILLUSTRATION BY FRITZ DUMVILLE
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Last month, Microsoft announced that it was joining the research coalition that is developing the next generation of the Internet. The coalition is known as Internet2, and its members include 150 leading universities and 15 major corporations, among them IBM, AT&T, and Motorola. The coalition's task is to build a reliable network that can move data at speeds 1,000 times faster than the fastest lines used today.
If you're wondering what a software company is doing building the infrastructure for the next-generation Internet, welcome to convergence. Microsoft isn't just a software company anymore; it's a media company, an Internet company, a company with a big stake in cable television, and an applications company, to boot. AT&T isn't just a phone company anymore; it will soon be the largest cable television company and one of the largest Internet services providers in the country. IBM isn't just a computer company anymore - it's reinventing itself as the pioneer of e-commerce and next-generation Internet services. Motorola isn't just a handset company anymore, its a partner in Iridium, a satellite telephone service that enables anyone to call from anywhere to anywhere at any time.
Business categories that once stood in neat rows are now integrating and combining along with the technology and telecommunications revolution. Boundaries that once separated print from electronic media, wholesale from retail, desk tops from mobile phones, are being erased. The pace of this change is accelerating at breathtaking speed.
We are riding down the avalanche of a technological revolution that will change virtually everything in its path. In 10 years' time, the Internet or its next generation will be ubiquitous. Wireless phones will be ubiquitous. Genetic identification cards and personal digital certificates will be ubiquitous. E-commerce will be ubiquitous. Voice-recognition software will be ubiquitous. Virtually every institution in American life will be changed by this convergence of technology and telecommunications services.
The consequences will be profound. It will change the nature of work. It will change the nature of the workplace. It will change the hierarchy of the workplace. It will put a premium on talent, rewarding the most capable as never before. It will leave behind, as never before, those who don't have the necessary tools.
In our personal lives, it will make us value privacy as never before. It will afford us educational opportunities that would have seemed unimaginable a generation ago. It will give us access to information as never before. It will make us appreciate strong values as never before. It will engage us in community as never before.
This is already happening. Because corporations have the capital to invest in these converging technologies, we feel the change most acutely in our work lives. Convergence has given rise to what Fast Company magazine calls the free-agent nation. There are already 20 million to 25 million people who don't work for a company or a business enterprise; they do projects for companies and business enterprises. And then they move on to the next project or job.
Free agents meet at Starbucks for coffee or at Kinkos while making copies, because there is no cafeteria or copier where they work. They're consultants or project hires, temps or specialists, and their number increases daily. Their office is a laptop computer and their office phone is digital or cellular. Wherever they are, thanks to satellite and cellular phone services, they can be reached. They conduct business by e-mail and can work on various projects simultaneously without ever leaving their homes.
As technology and telecommunications advance, the ability of free agents to compete and win in the project market increases accordingly. In the not-too-distant future, it is probable that all information-based project work will be outsourced to the free-agent nation.
Corporations would be crazy not to do this. They can cut their overhead costs while controlling the expense of project work through a constant bidding process. The capital that is freed up as a result can and will be used to expand and enhance productive technologies. Free agents that are particularly valuable can be signed to long-term or multiple-project contracts, thus preventing them from working with competitors.
Free agents benefit, because they can go as far their talent will take them, without being bogged down by office politics or some middle manager's idea of a career path. They're free to do what they do best, to try new things, to join in new ventures, and to take risks that, in a corporate environment, they would never take. If they're particularly good at something, they can leverage their expertise and creativity into stock options and project equity. They can own a piece of the enterprise without being there.
The emergence of free-agent nation will have a profound effect on our politics. Labor unions, which served their members well in the industrial economy, will be largely ignored by the free-agent work force. Their workplace, health, and pension issues will be played out in the political arena.
Pity the political party that does not meet the demands of the free-agent nation. Any governmental action that interferes with converging technologies will be held accountable by this powerful new constituency. Any political party that does not understand the importance of portable and accessible health care will be punished. Any government commission that does not offer up alternative plans for pensions will feel it at the ballot box.
The dynamics of convergence will put a premium on talent and teamwork. Corporate hierarchies will be turned inside out. Companies that do not adjust to the new dynamics will find it hard to keep talented people, as the market for talent expands through internets and extranets. We see this all around us now in professional sports, financial services, technology, and the media. Pretty soon we will see it floral arrangements, roofing repair, and window washing.
The downside of convergence is that those who are left behind will be marooned. In the wired age, you're either on line or you're not. If you're not, your horizons recede and your options narrow. Given that, at least half of America and three-quarters of the world will be so marooned. The resentments that will result, as the convergence class gains more control over the world's financial assets, will shape our domestic and international politics for years to come.
One sees a glimpse of this today in the presidential candidacy of Pat Buchanan, whose campaign connects with workers marooned by the information-based economy. Buchanan speaks for the stranded. His message is one that will grow strident and angry as the convergence class surges ahead in the new economy.
Parents know this divide is upon them, and they don't want their children left behind. They have become almost maniacal in their search for better education. Recently, this newspaper published the results of the Massachusetts public school student examinations (known as MCAS). Kids from Medfield did particularly well relative to kids from other towns. The value of Medfield real estate has since exploded.
The three l's of real estate no longer apply. The new rule of real estate is ELIAS; education, location, and Internet access speed. The convergence of technologies and telecommunications makes possible a whole new world of education. By the end of the next decade, it will be at least theoretically possible for every college student in the country to attend an Ivy League school, every law student to attend the best law schools, every medical student to attend the best medical schools, and every sci-tech wizard to attend the most advanced technical institutes.
The convergence of digital television and Internet distribution makes it possible to broadcast the lectures of every great English teacher, every great math professor, every great scientist into the classrooms and homes of every English student, every math student, every kid interested in the sciences. The lectures would be the same. The syllabuses would be the same. The cost would be prorated. The only thing that would be different would be the in-class teacher or teaching assistant.
The demand for such educational opportunity will explode as soon as people understand its availability. This could lead to the demolition of teachers' unions and school bureaucracies, if they stand in the way of change. Convergence means competition in education will finally become a fact.
Now that the US millennium generation (kids born in the 1990s) has passed the baby-boom generation in terms of its numbers, it is certain that demand for on-line education will only intensify.
Perhaps the key dynamic of convergence is that power shifts to the end-user. We see glimpses of this in our homes. We have caller identification on our telephones. If someone whose number we don't recognize calls, we let it pass through to voice mail. Soon, all of us will have technology that will allow us to block out all messages and interruptions we choose not to tolerate. Digital Television Recording Systems will enable us to watch television without commercial interruption. Similar technology will allow us to listen to the radio without advertising. Software that is already available allows us to download pages from the Internet without banner advertising. By eliminating the banners, the downloading of the information we do seek is twice as fast.
In the near future, we will be able to program our phones to only accept calls from known sources; all others will be relegated to voice mail. We will be able to digitally combat direct mail; if it does get through, we'll simply throw it away. Convergence means that we will only see the advertising and messaging we ask to see.
The consequences of that are enormous. Companies that once bludgeoned us with repetitive messaging will now have to ask for entry into our homes. Broadcasting, advertising, and marketing will be transformed in the process. If we choose to share our data with marketers, we will only do so in return for a substantial discount. Marketers call this ''data for discounts,'' and it is the next law of the new economy. Your data are the coin of the new realm. You can sell them at a premium.
As the demand for personal data increases, our concerns about privacy will rise accordingly. Our data will reside in hundreds of hard drives, accessible to thousands of servers at the tap of a few keystrokes. The issue of transparency - the ability of anyone to see into someone's life - will lead to a rebirth of the civil liberties movement. At the same time, we will benefit from that transparency, since we will have just as much information about those who seek our engagement as they have about us.
Convergence will level the playing field as never before. We will be able to cut out the middleman (as we do now with Amazon.com or E-Trade) or engage middlemen (as we do now with the on-line grocery services Peapod and Streamline) to save us time. We will have access to the same information that all the experts do. We will be able to switch our lending companies, our medical services, our vendors of all kinds at the moment we are dissatisfied or feel underserviced or overcharged. End-users will rule, because they will always have a choice.
As important, we will soon all be members of two communities: the actual community in which we live and the on-line community that we populate. These communities will intersect in 100 different ways but will be especially important to parents who seek to spend more time with their children. Convergence makes possible the realization of the home office, where the commute is measured in stairs, and the morale of the workforce is enhanced by its ability to be available on the home front.
Corporations understand this. Through market research, companies have learned that workers want technology that works for them, technology that saves them time and gives them much greater flexibility in their schedules. Convergence addresses these issues directly and makes it possible for a working mother or father to spend three days in the home office, two days in a business office, and one eye on two kids looking for trouble.
More than any other reason, this is why convergence will happen. Demand for it is simply overwhelming. Companies that deliver on its promise will win. Companies that don't will not survive.
The old business order is passing, and a new business order is being born. The investments by companies like Microsoft and AT&T in Internet2 make certain that there is no turning back. What was once a novelty is now a fact. The convergence of technology and telecommunications alters everything it touches, and it will touch almost every aspect of our lives.
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